Roaming Returns

021 - Use Macro Trends To Unlock More Profit Than 99% Of Other Investors

November 28, 2023 Tim & Carmela Episode 21
Roaming Returns
021 - Use Macro Trends To Unlock More Profit Than 99% Of Other Investors
Show Notes Transcript

The best investors get into stocks well before the majority of other investors because they think ahead. When you're proactive you find overlooked and often undervalued opportunities while 99% of other people are reactive investors. 

Those types don't buy stocks until after they hear experts, the news or their friends toting a company. Sure you may pick up some companies at a decent price, but you're more likely to experience losses.

Top investors make an effort to become aware of macro trends because it makes them so much more profit and creates a safety margin against losses. It's up to you which type of investor you want to be.

Right now there are trends in the Baby Boomers needing end-of-life services, Cryptocurrency and AI utilization.

Tickers mentioned in this episode:

REITs

  • ABR
  • CCI
  • AMT
  • SLG 

Healthcare

  • PFE
  • GSK
  • SNY 

Weed

  • IIPR
  • SMG
  • STZ 

Technology (opt for dividend paying funds over growth stocks)

  • AIO
  • NBXG
  • BSTZ
  • HTGC
  • HRZN

Crypto

  •  BITO 

Bonds (only a few  opportunities  since they're becoming overpriced)

  • PDI bond fund is easier than finding individuals

Utilities

  • UGI
  • SPH
  • BKH
  • D
  • VZ
  • T

Index Funds are the lazy man's or set-it-and-forget-it alternative. While most have low dividends, we recently found a few that pay pretty good. 

  • SWHYX
  • NHYMX
  • NMSSX
  • NOBL

Compare these to SPY and VOO Index Fund's dividends. ( Warren Buffet's preferences) 


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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

Episode music was created using Loudly.

Welcome to Roaming Returns, a podcast about generating a passive income through investing so that you don't have to wait till retirement to live your passions.

In today's episode, we're gonna go over macro trends and how understanding and knowing what the heck these things are and potentially how to predict them is going to give you an extreme advantage over 99% of other investors. Trade like the big shots. Let's get started.

Hello, welcome to the funhouse. Welcome to the party pal.

I've no idea what you're quoting diehard. Haven't seen that like forever that's the best Christmas movie.

Okay,

well that's up for argument cuz some people don't think it's a Christmas movie but it takes place during Christmas. Christmas trees and stuff.

It's about terrorists. I don't think it's about Christmas.

It's an INTJ is wet dream Christmas movie. Oh my god. So guys, we are going to be talking about some thing that you may or may not be able to use right now but it's something that you should know. Hopefully that makes sense. Because there's gonna come a point when the things that we're we've been pounding the table to invest in like the last, I don't know, six months, four months, however long it's men are going to come overpriced and then they're not something to invest in. That makes sense. Like remember that we went over the PDE thing a while back and like there's gonna come a time when say like, the REI T's are going to be overpriced and you can't actually invest the REI, Rei T or you're going to be losing some money.

And that's about the time that the social and media and analysts people are going to be saying buy Rei T's which usually when they actually give you the green light, that's when the prices are too high to really get in at a good value. Because

today I was I got an email about like some publication I forget what it's called. We're saying they were they were really beaten the table about bonds which I've been doing for like a year. Year and a half down but whatever. That's That's not important. So I went into my Schwab account and I was looking at the bond prices and the bonds are about tapped out. There's a few like maybe three or four you can get into. So they should actually be beating the table about CDs and CDs you can get like five and a half percent for like, like a year or something like that. So

I'm not sure if you guys wrapped your head around that but also as simple as I possibly can. Once general people and the analysts and the experts start actually pumping things. It's usually past the point of when you're going to get your best price.

I'm gonna wait to actually I mean, if you're a dork like me, you can do this, but I don't know how many people are doors away you can actually kind of get ahead of a head start on other people is reading like Warren Buffett's that's kind of 13 assets where they have to disclose what they invest in. I just went through a Warren Buffett's and I went through Carl Icahn icons icon icon and they both have like, in their top 10 Like half of them are oil or energy and then there's then they have like two or three financial ones. So if you like extrapolate that you can say well, the bigwigs vested last quarter in oil and financial so that means oil and financials are probably soon going to be tapped out if not already tapped out or overpriced. I'm sorry. I keep saying tap data overpriced, because especially Warren Buffett Warren Buffett never gets in anything unless it's a deal. So for him to be in and then report that means the deal was months ago when he got in Currently, there are still some energy stocks I guess that you could possibly get into like I know UAE n is undervalued. We're in that it's the fertilizer one I was talking about. And that one probably will go up in the spring so that might be more something they can get into. But like what I was, I wanted to actually discuss how you can't always just invest in income investing in stocks just willy nilly there is like there's a science to it. I guess there's a science vetting process

because

you don't want to get them when they're overpriced. You want to get them when they're overpriced, you're sure you'll be able to collect the dividend the you know the 10 to 12% dividend but there's a good chance that when they're overpriced, they're gonna have a pullback and you're not going to get the full the full price. So

if you buy them when they're too high, all the dividends you make are gonna basically go come out in the water.

Now what I did see when I looked at the bonds today, and I saw that, oh, the bonds are overpriced or not, they're overpriced. They're like they're like 120 or 1.20, or whatever you want to

remember back in the episode on bonds par is 1000. At the 100 mark or the 1000 mark. So if they're at 120, that's 20% means

you. That means you're putting $1,200 down for $1,000 volunteer paint over pain. No matter how much interest you collect, you're not going to get that $200 back. And then if you get them in another aspect when you buy bonds over par is it's if you go to your you're basically holding them for the duration of the bond at that point you can't do like if you get them at say 80 cents or 20% off. You can sell them like I say they spiked up to like 100 or 98 or whatever. You can then sell them for a profit even if you didn't hold them for the duration. But if you overpay a few overpay for them, you have to hold up to the duration.

And that becomes really important with this whole interest rates which are always a risky thing that's happening because bonds become not appealing when interest rates go or they go up above what you're

locked in bonds. Bonds get trashed when interest rates go up. When interest rates start going down, which everyone thinks they're gonna go down, starting to go down next year. That's what when they start the interest rate starts ticking down, bond prices will go up. So like if you're getting something for now for 120 It's gonna be like 140 next year when interest rates go up. So I guess you could in theory make money that way but that's like a I don't like the probability of that. That's a good lead sounds like more risk. That's like gambling. Yeah,

that's a gamble. That's more risk.

Well, what I did notice when I was looking at the ball after I saw the bonds were like, I mean, there's a few like triple B's which aren't correct. I mean, they're not. They're not bad, but they're not great like we were getting into A's and a minuses at like 12 to 18% undervalued sometimes like to prefer now preferred odds are about in that sweet spot. So like that would be something that I would recommend doing rather than bonds and preferred because they they got most prefers are in Rei, t's or BDCs. Nail get trashed whenever the interest, not BDCs BDCs do pretty good. But whatever, whatever reason, there was a couple of BDCs and there were there was a lot of REI T's and a lot of energy stocks. So if you wanted to actually get in the energy I would actually do not the bond route I would do the preferred route prefers we're about I anywhere between 30 and 40%, undervalued and when again that they have a similar construct construct of bonds like there's a par value for prefers. Normally it's 25 $25. They were like 16 and $17.

And if you don't know what a preferred share is go back to the actual preferred share. episode that we did. And listen to that for detail. It's just

real quick. It's basically a preferred share means you have no rights other than you get your dividend before everyone else

but you have a higher probability of being paid out a dividend versus a regular common stock of the same company because preferred our preferred payout. They pay a little bit less dividend but they're worth the extra guarantee and lower risk.

Right. So like if you're investing if you're if you're investing right now, you could conceivably get away with investing in a couple of REI T's like AVR is a good one to get into. It's undervalued still, and SLG is undervalued. But SLG is a tricky one because that's that's like real estate and trust that basically just invest in Manhattan properties. Manhattan Manhattan.

I think we're just watched I also wonder that I got mad hatter on the brain.

So like all their properties in New York so like, depends on the whole going back to work thing and all that shit, but that's

the thing with the uncertainty. We don't really know and I think one of the biggest keys with getting in things and not getting in things. Like we were just saying with Warren Buffett's disclosure of whatever he's in. He's hit that disclosures happening probably months, if not half a year after he actually got in when he got in at the undervalue price group. What Okay, so quarterly once it's made general public, that means any buddy can jump in on it and usually when somebody in the media especially somebody of a high esteemed position says something everybody wants to jump on that boat.

Alright, usually what you should be getting into if interest rates are up, sorry, it is all

got got smashed down. I think we talked about that in another episode. But so basically what we're saying is right now, people probably aren't pumping or talking about Rei teas because they're depressed. So they don't really people are scared to what does it value invest or Contrarian investors? Do the opposite of what the general public is doing? The

best the best. The best time to train is it's quite literally if you go back to the podcast where we discuss PE contrarian investment basically is you find so you find a stock that has a six PE and its industry average is 18. contrarian investing means you would invest in that six PE because is the probability is very high that it's gonna go up. So here we get an undervalued plus you're getting dividends, that's what contrarian investing is.

And the thing with the general analysts like they will, like give the green light on buying a stock until like 80% of the people.

The reason that they do that and I think I read this somewhere, is because they are measured by measured by metrics and if they have a higher, higher success rate, so say they recommend getting into something and it goes up. Well, they can say, well, we told you to get into ABR when it was 12 hours, and if you got into it, you could have sold it at 15. So they take it as a win that way for their statistics, they haven't well when I won one zero loss, whereas we kind of do differently, like it's just getting stuff when it's decently priced and just hold it for like ever and collect dividends. Because

the key with that kind of investing is you have to learn to sell at the right time and that's not really what we're looking for.

Again, well that's pretty simple to you just flip the PE thing around like say, say ABR was trading at like 55 pe and the PE industry average was 42 Well then you know you're overpriced you can sell it and you can wait till two drops back down.

Yeah, that would be a big red flag to get out. Unless it was like a good dividend payer and you had justification. But that might just be a good time to reallocate your portfolio actually

have so like if you want anytime you're in your brokerage account, then you can tinker around on the graphing chart then they actually have variables that you can actually click on that show you the under sold and oversold on your chart. And then like once you're once your stock gets above the oversold line that they have. That's nice, then you can buy it and then once once it gets under,

there's like oh man I actually liked on the charts with all the actual like, indicators and stuff. You can put in 1000s of indicators with specific inputs and it gets a little squirrely, so I don't know what the exact inputs that they have. I'm assuming you can see

at the top ones at the bottom ones 20 Okay, so one with the 8020 rule. So the time that that's like overbought at 80% That's an indication to sell because there's not a lot of people left to buy it. And then anytime it's under 20 That means it's time to buy it because there's not a lot of people left to sell it.

That's not quite how that works. I actually thought that was fascinating how they were talking about it. It's the price will go down to incentivize buyers to buy when there's a disparity between the number of buyers and sellers literally just said that I know I know. But for whatever reason, the way that that was worded really clicked in my brain. Maybe I'm weird, you're

aware. Basically if you have the chart just put in the ad 20 factors and you anytime it's above 80 You don't buy you sell and anytime it's below 20 You buy you don't so and that's where a lot of people like I was reading the newsletter that's come out this week, or next week. I don't know when the first week of December. is, I think it's this week is the 27th

so it's going to be in a week. Next Friday. So

next Friday when the newsletter comes out, like I was reading the psychology stuff and like, but they have like, individual studies in there and like 95% of people who 9095 or 92 I forget I might be getting the numbers. Do what they lose money in the software.

I read everywhere from 91 to 99%. There's no

so like the reason they lose in the stock market is because they're buying when it's above 80 They're following

they're not getting ahead. So what's happening, they're reactive. Purchasing instead of proactive when

you buy when it's overbought, you're gonna lose money and when you sell when it's oversold. That means you lost money.

And if you translate that into the people who end up in that hole, follow the media, follow the whatever. If you feel overly confident that it's gonna go up, you're probably overpaying because when everybody is

just brought up to different biases that are in that newsletter then I but it's so

true like when everybody is like positive and optimistic and and this is like the rule of thumb with a bear in the bull markets. When everybody is overconfident that the market is going to keep going up that is the time to start liquidating positions because it is going to turn around because that'll be

next week's podcast we're gonna like start it's gonna probably be two or three different podcasts to cover all because there's a lot of information but like to the biases that she's brought up is overconfidence is a bias that people have. And then the fearful bias actually got herd mentality is another bias that people have. Yeah, but we'll get into that

bias when everybody else is fearful. I think Buffett has to have a quote about that somewhere. Some of one of the things he

said we buy when everyone else is scared. And we're greedy when everyone else scared, greedy

when everybody's scared and fearful when everybody else is greedy or something. It's the opposite. So basically, if you are a personality type that constantly is following the trend. shouldn't invest always go with your opposite instinct. We have my dad's when coworker or dad's woodworker is literally one of those people and it is it's hilarious, because when he does something he's like, Well, I thought, Steve, the best thing that you could do is whatever you think do the opposite. And it like literally holds water like 99% of time. It's pretty crazy. Yes,

you can kind of shelve your different personality biases, if you can understand the macro factors that go into the stock market. What I mean by macro factors is right now we have high interest rates, they're going the probability is like 80 to 90%. They're going to start cutting them next year. So that's a meta macro factor. If they start cutting the interest rates, what's going to benefit from that? It's going to be the companies that borrow money that's going to be like the Hercules capitals. It's going to be like the AVR is Harvard trust. It's going to be like the REI T's. That's a net that's a macro trend that been going opposite the last two years with interest rates have gone up for the last two years. When interest rates go up. What what companies benefit from interest rates going up? That's the financial ones. That's the banks. That's a huge macro trend. So if you can actually identify the micro trends, you can shelve your biases and just focus on that another micro trend or macro trend is America's the oldest it's been in like I don't know since the 1970s. So we have an aging population. A macro trend would be the aging population. What do they use? They're going to be using a pharmaceutical companies and they're going to be using assisted living and stuff like that. That's that's talked about the macro trend and another macro trend is going to be every four years there's they're having in the cryptocurrency world so that's another macro trend, okay. Crypto is going to be going up so crypto stocks like Beto and like JP Morgan that actually like the the banks that invest in Kryptos so I

have a question and that was actually okay. So let me put on the banks that invest in Kryptos will be the better investments Correct? For next

year? Yes,

we that is exactly like what we talked about a couple episodes back when we were talking about investing in the infrastructure of the cell towers, not the actual cell companies. So it's the same concept where we're looking for, like second tier thinking or like the resource thinking. But what I was going to ask you is, is there a macro trend with people other than the boomers because we talked about the boomers all the time,

there's a macro trend. There's a there's the millennial macro trend. They don't like to work and they like to work out of the office. So like that's something that's probably telecom seven to 10 years down the road. Whenever all the baby boomers have retired, you don't have to worry about the aging population and more than you can focus on the ones that don't like to go in the office. So there'll be like the zooms and it would be like the the medical ones where they can get like their doctor on the computer and talking to one computer it was

so the actual programs that allow the access to like digital records and the there's

a record like Ironman or that it's called Iron Mountain or mountains or digital records, record storage.

So I'm laughing Iron Mountain reminds me of Candy Mountain.

Iron Mountain was the one that I sold that like when I hit 40 and went up to like 80 Oh, that

was okay. I thought it sounded familiar

that that doozy there I was thinking about doing. I don't know if I'm going to do a weekly email or if I'm going to devote like a devote a whole like episode like a monthly issue to it. But like all the failures I've had.

You mean in the month or like just

in general like the general like, well, we've invested in a toy company that was his Ponzi scheme we like I invested in penny stocks that were just asked I invested in some cryptocurrencies like oh, that's a good one. We put $500 in a cryptocurrency it's for 17

I actually think a YouTube series will be really good for that because we can show like the epic fail here. And in actual real time, well,

that's one area that I when I was reading through the like the psychology of investing that one of the biggest bias is that people like are afraid to admit their failures. It's fascinating. Like I have no problem,

saying we're kind of like you might as well stick your failures out there because to me, I would rather stick it out there before somebody else makes fun of me for it. So it's just like I shut my one ex coworker or whatever told me I like make my shame everybody else's problem. So it's just it is what to do. Another

macro trend would be cannabis. That's going to be legal at some point in the next like 10 years. Yeah, yeah. So invested in like so getting the head start on all the other peons that are investing in cannabis stocks, like IPR SMG sdz STC is an interesting one because it's actually a drink company, but they have a cannabis section of the drink company.

So they actually have like cannabis infused drinks. They do that they

have cannabis infused drinks and they also have the actual pot Parsh portion. That's like a completely different thing, but STG is

like a plant slash lamp shop.

S tz is an interesting one. I never go back to the the boomers, Pfizer pFV like curse laughter I don't know how I never know how to pronounce GSK pronounce it was it say glide can look like or someone other than

like a nurse nurse traditionelle

s and y there's a good ones for a lot but then you can also do like the REI T's and you can do the BDCs that lend to old people homes come in. It's like that's like, what I'm trying to do. And I'm trying to say is you can't think like everyone else or you're not going to make money like everyone else.

Yes, exactly. If you do what everybody else does, you get the same results as everybody else and 99% of the most

majority is money. And the majority of them cannot see the trends before they happen.

And they get so FOMO that they follow the current trend, which means they're overpaying and then the markets if you're

one of those people actually like like something I would never recommend. But I would recommend if you're a person that can't see like a year into the future, then I would literally just invest in index funds. I would just get an s&p 500 index fund.

I told you there's a time and a place for those and they work for some people. Or you could do that same rule of thumb we were talking about with doing the opposite of what your intuition is telling you. Another

macro trend right now is artificial intelligence.

Which is a given I think everybody knows we're all born with

AI though as a majority of the companies that invest like invest in AI and produce AI and are at the forefront of AI are like apple nividia IBM, Microsoft Intel NATO patient for dividends. They do grow their cage or if you remember we discussed cagers cash after growth. They do have like a 10 10% plus cage or growth. So you there's a possibility that you can make 10% on an apple but then that's when you have to actually go back to your chart and say okay, Apple is right now I think it's like a 24 so it might be a good chance like a good time to buy because it's completely oversold right now. So if you're going to do invest in the popular stocks, you have to make sure that you're not buying when they're over

valued, overvalued and that's pretty hard to do because usually the big 10 over what to call them the seven Magnificent Seven reverse

and seven right again jaw I know right? Delivers. I even remembered that was because for me and like what we invest in I don't want to hold Apple by itself. So I'll invest in like in BXG or BSTZ or even HT GC or HRZN are all even new the yield Max the a a p y or whatever it's called the apple yield Max. I'd rather make money on Apple with the yield Max and hold apple and make crap their dividends like point 2% Or some nonsense like that. That's what's the point but like the best part about the NB x g the BT vs tz they actually will hold Microsoft and Apple and the video and they think they're fun. They're fun. They hold all those so

the cool thing with funds funds will usually have a variety of different things. So you'll be able to actually invest in the blue chips and the Magnuson sevens while still giving a dividend without actually owning the individual stock. No

I was looking because we're the influencers that we call them. The Influencers, influencers, psychedelics, our van life familis pals or influencers whatever they like they have a YouTube channel so I guess we'll say that

we've been following them since they started Tim Tim like tiny people.

She asked a question that she was looking for an index fund just as shit extra money she wanted to stick it into I said, Are you sure about that? She said yes. I said Are you are you? Are you doubling? Just said yeah. But we I was looking. They actually do have a couple of index funds that are pretty decent. When it comes to dividends. I was shocked.

I think the index fund world is starting to get the memo that people want dividends with their index

holdings like SW h y x that yield 7.06% And it only has a point five expense. I haven't even heard of that one. So that's a Schwab small cap and I know how much you like small cap in h y mx yields 5.22. So like there are a couple and

that's really good because most of the regular index funds are only like point one summer one person

s x s s x 6.45 years so why they have to have the most ridiculous tickers. Another option would be just to go into dividend aristocrat Fund, which is no BL that was the fun in that. And

then the ones that Buffett I think supposedly condones, but I'm not entirely sure he's actually in them for the what does it do And my view is even though that one's five, I believe is what I've

been doing is by using both of them. There's only two that he goes into. Yeah, so there are those and then then I've said well maybe you might want to do like half your money into one of these decent yielding index funds and half your money in a municipal fun because municipal who isn't like tax free stuff you can get like 7% so but like that I

my opinion if you're in a retirement account, that's Roth or something like that. It doesn't really matter, or even a retirement income. Taxes don't matter yet.

Like I mentioned that I mentioned the cryptocurrency macro trend the macro trend there we like beto be it Oh, it is basically they just invest in Bitcoin and they do options on Bitcoin and like it has it has a monthly dividend. So yeah, we got into that so far. So good. Like we're, we're we've made I want to say like 40 or 50 bucks on like $1,200 and we haven't lost any money and so that's always nice when you don't lose money.

Yeah, definitely is. I hate I hate when you buy something and then the price drops. You're just like really, really poor. When you sell something and then it goes up.

Now an area where like because bonds are oversold you actually would have to you'd have to divert to like the funds that deal in bonds like PDI PDI is a really good bond fund. We're in that it's really good at yields. I think 14% and it has a history of raising its dividend yield.

Incredible for bonds. And to be honest, you don't have any there's no terms with those right, a fund

for 10 years hold forever. Then another or another option would be to do your bullet shares. Volunteers are technically bond funds that you're making 7.2% or something on.

And the nice part is again, they don't really fluctuate much in price. So that's a great place to stick your cash that you want liquid to potentially put on hold for other stocks and other things to come into your buy window. And

then last macro trend has been a macro trend that I'll bring up today. It's been a macro trend since like the 1900s as utilities utilities are always macro trend or trend

since the 1900s. I call that a century and trend ugi

SPH pKH and di D The Dominion.

You Yeah, some of that d then do we have any D

like 4% like I like ugi UTI has like 6.7 SPI to Leo's like almost 8% up make sense to me. SPH is actually an interesting one because it is a propane. One that

was it the one that doesn't really have a big dividend but it has a crazy special no

that's the one that's been raised as dividend every year like one like one or 2% I'm confusing that with whatever MBK H is Black Hills something other and it's been around raising this it's it's racist dividend like 50 Some years South Dakota Black

Hills, the base? Yeah, really.

That's raise it like I think 56 years is

raised thinking about transferring all of our residency to because South Dakota is one of the big three for digital nomads or nomads. I like the idea of South Dakota you

could all like another option would be to like start subscribing to different places because I get like I don't even know where I get this. I don't remember subscribing but I get like anytime there's a special dividend that comes out I get emails about them. And this week, there's like 12 of them.

If you're on the email subscription, you would have got that this morning. Or I guess

yesterday one of them is called BCC I BCC is actually very interesting. It only pays out like a 1.2% dividend but they give out like crazy dollars like there's special dividend that comes out in 30 of his $5 Which is crazy special dividends 125% special dividend. That's insane. That's such a weird structure, but that's insane. So it's like six years of dividend.

We've talked about BCC before, are I've I might have seen it through some of my social media random, random stuff that was ringing a bell but then again, all the letters run together at some point, identifying

the macrotrends the way to do that is to have the best way honestly is if you follow personality stuff just be friend an INTJ

Do you really want to do an episode about that? I think we probably should. If you guys aren't familiar with what an INTJ is, it's like the most elusive and illustrious, illustrious is a three word personalities. Everybody wants to be an INTJ

we live in the future. We don't live in the present. That's really messed up. You

guys have like Oracle powers from third point of view of everybody else. So

like for me, it's very easy to see that the different trends that are going to happen in 2024 Everybody thinks you guys are a robot, because it's just how my brain works. So I can see the interest rates going down which means Rei T's BDCs all the all the other companies have been borrowing money. They're going to restructure their debt and actually have more money to give out to the shareholders. I can see the pattern of the Bitcoin having what it does for the for the crypto market which do not in crypto, we're not saying get into crypto, vut there are a lot of ways to shoppers on the s&p 500 that deal with crypto. So you get into those because you know, they're going to have a shit ton of money here and about four months, four to eight months there and the price of bitcoins is going to shoot through the roof here. I can see the ETFs for Bitcoin and Aetherium both coming about so that's going to further

push the price up because the scarcity factor.

I can see like we were just brought up ugi and SPH. I could see their prices going up because it's cold as crap here in the Northeast already. It's only November so it's going to be a winter where people are going to be

20 degree temperatures with 30 mile an hour gusts tomorrow on acceptable all

so I could see that I mean like so I can see all the things that are going on. So how I lose money in the market sometimes I don't know. I

think it's because sometimes you try to rationalize your intuition instead of just acting on your intuition, because sometimes they'll ask me stuff and I'm just like, well, and I sit over here with logic and actually having data points and you know, evidence and then he'll be right I'm just like, You know what, stop taking my advice, because this is not my strong suit. I'm better at tactics, not strategy. So

there are an area that I don't know yet there's Goldman Sachs just came out with technology based index funds and like right now we hold J PQ, and we hold in the air and XB G whatever that one's called. I forget where I just mentioned that so those are both technology based, kind of like index ones but the Goldman Sachs has ones that's supposed to be just like je PQ, but I have to see if it's going to yield as much if it yields just as much as J PQ. And there's another one called JPI Jeppe and Jeff Q

sounds like you're speaking French so

Goldman. Sachs I think it's better than the J The J ones I forget who offers the J ones might be JP Morgan. But like JP Morgan like Goldman Sachs better I would agree with you on that one. That guy said like the part that's pissing me off is I keep getting an emails about bonds and it's like do like bought my bonds like a year ago, when I saw that the bonds were like 78

Like I feel like Tim gets frustrated because he's actually ahead of the actual newsletters that he gets and subscribes to, which is kind of hilarious.

The problem that I the reason I lost money like when we did growth investing, I can tell you right now, the reason I lost money is because I would I was right about the companies had at the time I was wrong about the sell time. And we

were always ahead of the game. Like we would actually like sell too early actually. And had we let stuff sit at like 200% 300% Like it's crazy amount like just like iPhone

Skywalker sky works before anyone I even knew about sky works. If you're not familiar with that, that's a chip. Like there's Ambarella which is Amba a NBA they make the chips and sky work, gives them the parts to make the chips and I found both those before anyone knew what they were. And then I was like, ah I think they've reached their top and I sold and now not even remotely close to reaching the

top. So I think your biggest fall is the fact that you underestimate how long it takes a trend to actually take off because you are so far ahead of the curve.

I can see that when it comes to like chi cell cycle several losers. I'm like, Well that one's not gonna go up anytime soon. So that's why I'm so proud of myself that I held on the camping world medical properties because I know they're gonna go back up but I'm just like, I want to get rid of I want to get rid of them. I don't like them. I don't like them I like them now leave them all leave them

so here's the point his his uh, I guess intuition or instincts on that because they just whenever real time takes time to catch up to Tim's future land that he sits in.

Now an option. Like I mentioned CDs, I was just looking to see these they're 5.5 to 5.75% and you think they're only for like, the maximum 18 months. That might be a place but if you're gonna do that you might as well put the bullet chairs you're making 1.5% more and

you don't have your money locked away and you're not stuck in terms and you're not to all this.

We drive by a few banks in our way to like work and like he laughs

He laughs out loud. Like every time we see one. There's one

like they're like, oh, we have a 5.5% CD. It's like really yours. Oh, that is that's a banger there

I prefer to have liquid cash available when I see something I want to

jump now like one of carbs friends brought up. Our British British her British British friend brought up she was talking to one of her friends and her friends. Like you don't want to invest in Cisco, because they own like 80% of the of the I guess

that was an option but they were talking about you

want to invest in Juniper Juniper because it has a higher potential for growth. But like then I was like, well, that doesn't even make any sense. Because if Cisco already owns 80% of everything, the probability is that they're going to own 90% Before Juniper even sell like it

doesn't take a lot of growth to really take over a market from that. But

she was she's fearful trader. Wow, she's like, I don't want my money. So I'm just gonna put like I'm gonna take I'm gonna take out of this I'm gonna do that

when she was talking about putting 100% in one of those and I was like But that's a non guaranteed you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket and to me that's a fire that's an unknown that's a too many potential things that could happen regulation other companies coming into the mix them having funding like all this other stuff going into the mix, and it's like

we were that I couldn't even know dividend justify. That would be if you buy shares in Juniper, but a fifth layer there's a for the probabilities. Actually higher that Cisco buys Juniper, then Juniper actually takes off

but with the prices that go up what happens probably when this happens, what they give them yeah, what they buy and I think we've been in a situation before where a company bought another company out and I think most of the time, the one being bought out goes up. Yeah, the one

being bought goes up because usually it goes go up normally no like like say Microsoft bought a company most of the time Microsoft will go down until the revenue from the company they bought okay, it has a chance to take hold in Microsoft to go up at the company they bought will shoot up usually

remember this but I figured it was I figured it was the company goes up because that makes logical sense

because then all the other investors have to make sure that it was a wise decision to take on the debt to make to see the revenue coming in the cash flow once they see that okay, what they bought is generating a lot of cash flow awesome than the price of a but the

other cool thing that my friend just figured out, she knows nothing about investing whatsoever and I guess she just was happened to be in a situation where she was talking to somebody that else that knew about investing and they were talking about index funds, and we don't really know what to tell her to buy over there because I assume it's a different market. There's different fees and tax and like we're just not sure and haven't really looked into it the first time so but I was telling her with the index funds unless it has a big enough dividend which most of them do not. It's the lazy man approach for like a 30 year retirement type situation.

Do the lazy man's approach to investing because you don't want to have to deal with buying and selling and monitoring your account or it's just something that you plan on forgetting about until yeah

so it's to approach and again, like 20 year olds up, I would in a heartbeat. If I was 20 years old, I would literally just dump a bunch of money into index funds and just say screw it, I want to go hang out party, travel, whatever. I'm not having to worry about it. But you're not creating that passive income stream and that was what I was telling her. So it's like you could do a hybrid approach where you have dividend payers and then half index funds, you're getting the best of, I guess both sides

or you can get an index one that pay 7% That way it covers technically a quote, inflation.

I didn't know those were even existing. So that's really cool. I think the inflation requirement for dividends or percent increases 4% per year. So if you're not making at least 4% you're actually losing money. Well, that's

why like when I was reading an article about the 4%, there's another there's an old Boomer that really says the 4% rule works blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. If you're not familiar, the 4% rule talked about the pullout. Yeah, if you're not familiar with the 4% rule that is like antiquated and archaic and doesn't work. It's like you in view and it's been proven, you save your whole life and then when you retire at 6560 to 6770. Whenever you retire, you look at what you have, you take out 4% Every year every

year the problem with that approach is if one of your one of your first three years as a year that's like 2028 or excuse me to dominate, you're screwed. You lose so much of your value and 4% of that is taking a huge chunk out that it's actually compromising your ability to then take out as much as you need. In subsequent years. Like you get screwed. If you look out and you have great, like bull runs in your first couple years. You're sitting pretty, but it's odds and probability of who the hell knows what

the 4% rule doesn't actually take into account inflation and inflation is growing at 2% So if you take out 4% and inflation is 2%

you couldn't hear the dripping sarcasm and see his rolling eyes

inflation. Like I have no problem with it. I just incorporated not transparent though I just incorporate it into my investment strategy like I just assumed that it's going to be like 6% 7% Well, that was higher than they say that we just I don't know if we touched on it, but like I'm pretty sure they've actually don't go to the store. They don't see that.

Maybe we just live in an area where inflation seems to be higher because we have we live with a whole bunch of hoity toity is around us and maybe they're just like, hey, we're gonna jack prices up because he's rich. Like

even like, like whenever your dad gone. He got an estimate for a garage that he built. The estimate had to be revised the next year for the price of lumber going up. I mean, it's even something simple like that, like, year to year, they had to redo an estimate. For a garage because the price of lumber went up so high but

I know even for him being in landscaping goes through a lot of gas and like you have to up your prices.

Know the energy. We I mentioned that if you're not in energy, it might be too late. Yes for like Chevron like for the major ones like Chevron Exxon Mobil. So no Sunoco you're probably too late to the party to actually get into those but for like the midstream ones and the smaller ones you probably get into those because oil is only at like $75 a barrel right now. I think that's going to be average for like if you average out like the next five years, I think it's gonna be between 70 and 80. Even though it should be like 120 130 but whatever it's thought. So you could still get into like the smaller ones like I really like ARP, and we're in that they raise their dividend all the time. It's a small cap oil stock and laces small caps. I like the small cap and the reason why I like the small cap.

Fish can't play in the pond.

There's that like the there's they're so low cap manipulators. So small price can't be manipulated, but at the same time, I can invest in what happens when we enter a bull market is small cap always outperforms large cap. So if if the big wigs can't invest in the small stuff, and you have a room to make more money, you might as well stick load up load up on the small caps that have a good dividend. Agreed

makes a lot of sense to me, which I found shocking is

one of the guys that egg when they say it's a small cap. I was like really? Is it

based on the actual market I

guess and like I never understood that like

market caps per sector. Is that the problem? I feel like that's probably a thing didn't click

for me like anything over a billion dollars. Seems like it's a large cap but that's like a small cap.

I think anything over a billion would be like in the ginormous that's like a holy crap.

That's a huge business but like it's like a small canvas like well down. So we want you to take away from this that you need to start making your plans now for when the interest rates go down. When the baby boomers go into medical like medical facilities when they need their pills when crypto has like you need to like I'm hoping that it's like something that you can be taught.

I don't know I think you can with enough awareness and practice because

if you can get ahead like if you can get like I'm not saying like you don't want to be like a year ahead of the crowds but if you can get like four to six months ahead of everyone else, you're you're good

and you kind of have that built in. If you follow the undervalue, like what we were talking about finding things under value, you can kind of see trends from the actual research. If you're not like Tim with reading news and stuff like I don't read news, whatever

I read every day, every day I'm in the I'm in, I'm in there reading and I like I'll

tell you how bad I am. I didn't even know Obama was president till like three days after he was actually in office. That's how bad I am with actually paying attention with what's going on in the world.

I read what they write and I laugh and I laugh and I laugh. It's like dude, I had that thought like nine months ago. I've already have investments. So like my portfolio or for our portfolio is set up super nice for like 18 months from now.

Tim good hold on. Do you

follow those you've actually followed like any other like the things we've discussed, your portfolio is also a setup for like 18 months from now, which is

ideal, and then you just have to actually battle those emotions with trend following and going against the experts in the advisors. And

at this point, if you follow what we said I would say awesome and then I would say go back to your old ways where you just want to set it and forget it and then I'll just check back in like a year. Val, obviously you have to check in like every quarter to make sure it's showing like didn't go bankrupt, things like that. But yeah, that

happens too. We've made that I've made that mistake because I'm like, I don't want to say shiny object squirrel syndrome, but I get so caught up in with what I'm doing. I don't realize like a week a month, two months a year goes by like literally just messaged our friend. I was like I haven't talked to him in a while and I looked it's been two years I feel like such an asshole.

No, I do have a couple of penny stocks in the portfolio. Like I know that everyone frowns upon Penny. Stocks but I found a 15 cent AI it's um, it's a healthcare AI. So again, aging population. Apparently the AI is they just plug in the computer of this old fart has this and their computer says hey,

oh, that's one of the things I actually have read about how AI can diagnose like health and sickness stuff way better than medical practitioners. So some cool stuff is coming. So

it's fitting Sam so I put like 100 bucks into that. We'll see how that goes. If it if it looks like it'd be good, I'll let you guys know. And then we're I'm in another penny stock that it's the dude that made monster if you're familiar with Monster beverages, as I'm assuming most people are, it went up like from like 2002 to the present. 21 years monster has the highest return of any stock. Really the dude that was part of that he created a plant based protein drink type thing. And I got that for dirt cheap. So I'm really

cool. If they're actually pivoting I was gonna say I think Coke and Pepsi are gonna have problems and coke unless they don't pivot and get in. I know they have but I'm just saying I had that thought initially, because it's like they're not going to get off this wagon like there's clearly a macro trend in my opinion, with people getting have more health conscious better. Pepsi

did better actually. So if you had to choose between Pepsi Cola and Coca Cola, I would take PepsiCo because they have all the same drinks. I mean, obviously Pepsi has Gatorade by Pepsi. I think that's okay. Or No way. It could be might be Pepsi and power. It might be coke. I don't know. I don't. All I know is Pepsi actually bought Frito Lay so Pepsi has the healthy snacks plus the drinks plus the athletic drinks plus the plant based drinks and Pepsi is actually a better they have more but the

fact that they're actually branching out means that there is a trend in that direction otherwise they would not have put money into that. So

that's it's better. And then another macro trend is going to be home values are actually going to start decreasing here in the next however many months so don't buy homebuilders, even though there's even though there's a huge supply problem. People are not going to be buying homes because they're not going to want a 30 year mortgage at 8%. Although they might want like I don't they might want to take an 8% mortgage out if it's a house they know they can flip and sell or just live in it for like five years and then sell it for like 20% I don't know. Yeah, but the general public doesn't really do that. But like that's one of the actual like, that's actually you can we have this new newsletter comes out are the tenants so excited? Because you can actually use people's psychology against them. Like in when it comes to houses people have a bias that the that they spend $100,000 on a house that $100,000 is more than $100,000 they put in their brokerage account because they own the house.

Even they view it as a more valuable asset. Yeah, I can see that people

like to use their bias against them. The issue with NF T's you don't have that tangible like whatever. So when you go to sell your house that can this will be all yours and you will that no one can take it from you and you can just

not true you could probably

play to their psychology and then they'll be like I must have this house then it's their problem.

What's the thing if you know what kind of person you're talking to? Some people are motivated by telling them they can't have it. I

think houses are stupid personally. If I was a millennial, I would not do index funds, I would rent and I would do my dividend stocks and I would just make money that way and then I would just travel around I like I

do that house sitting then I live for free and travel.

I'd rent for like a month in like Colorado and then I would go rent somewhere in like Montana for a month because I'm making dividends and I can pay for it. So I wish I could do it over again. But I guess that's like everybody's everybody has that. wish they could do something over again type thing. Mine would be from the finance financial aspect.

Dude, I'd be a millionaire by 18 I

wouldn't be a mother. I probably still have the same amount of money but I would have more experience more life. more life experience I'd be richer in that way.

I'd be richer that way too but I'm pretty sure you could hit a million dollars really easily if you could invest

at all Yeah, I would have bought Bitcoin was like 10 cents.

I did buy a theorem when it was like two or $3 though they said 18 You told me a dragonfly for some time. It was two or three that was 18 and I think I got it for 80. But I got I bought it for different times under $100. So that's

pretty impressive. So my brother would even be like jaw dropping.

So now I just have to get it from celsius. Yeah,

we want to talk about that right now. If we do a crypto episode, you'll hear all the screw up the screw up episodes you'll hear about how we got hijacked by selfies. Yeah,

first of all sorts of fun. And then we bought we spent a lot of money on some NF T shoes and then they changed the rules like that one is so funny. They changed the rules like halfway through

the year still keep changing it I've actually kind of checked in on it just to see how

it works and interesting concept it's basically a walk to earn like they have played around games now like on the internet. They have like a Wii you can go play like I don't know some more game and you can make you can make cryptocurrency while you're playing the game. Well this was we were walking anyways and like the Okay, so we can get paid to walk around cool. And wait for a while I did and it was like Oh this is awesome and it was kind of washed out and then all hell is shipped the bed went crazy and then shipped, like

100 some dollars a coin, a token down to like 10 cents

so that's that's a blue bow might actually do that like to sell into December for the January like to deliver the blooper reel for 2020

so bad. It is so bad. We've got the actual like physical Ponzi scheme. We tell them as pawns. Yeah, we will have to do an episode because it's

smart to actually do a podcast the blooper reels too, because there's a lot of them that like they're hilarious.

I hope they don't. And it's one of those things where you have to laugh or you're gonna cry, but like I mean, when it happened, it was not fun. But now it's like I guess it's good that we can laugh about it. I

hope they don't look at us. Different because like I can't listen to them anymore. But

we learned from every one of our mistakes and like what is what is it? Benjamin Franklin said like, what do you say I didn't say oh, he's like I just found 100 ways not to make it right.

But it was Edison, whatever. But there was another quote I'll have to bring it up but

it's something like failure is necessary and the craziest part is when we're talking about psychology here, society really, really really shamed people for failing like that big F in your classes. And it's not like it's a fear evoking it is it is so bad for our psychology, but in actuality, success is hinged upon how often you fail. So the more you fail, the better you are the higher probability you have of actually succeed well on

the same in that same token like if you who are the most successful people like I think Elon Musk is probably you love them hate him, whatever. I'm indifferent towards them. I don't care. He's probably one of the most successful people though like he basically said, I'm going to what did he build first? I forget. They tried everything. Basically he built a electronic vehicle. He bought up I think he was paid out he made an electronic payment thing. And then he made like a space like a rocket ship like NASA type thing. Like he's basically just says I'm in now I guess he's going to populate Mars who the hell knows what, but like he's failed so many times they like if you listen to him talk about how many times he's failed. It's interesting. And you learn something

every time you fail, you should learn. You have a successful failure if you actually learn something if you give up 100% guarantee failure did

pay pal. He did Tesla, SpaceX and now he's doing Twitter. But He's fast. He's a fascinating from that individual from the

intp What do you expect? They are pretty fast from the Einstein type,

but we have so many bloopers like I find them funny because whatever, like you can't,

it's still gut wrenching.

It's done. It is what it does. It's nothing that can be changed, but it's not

steep stopping us from continuing to try. Like

every one of those failures led me to I want to have a income stream that is always there which led me to hear so like and that's

the thing sometimes they're like, What is that saying? When one door closes another one opens you have no idea what one failure is going to make you pivot to and you wouldn't have been able to find it had you not went through that thing to even see that the other thing was a possibility. So I can't even tell you how many times I've done stuff that I would have never even known how to not like did something I absolutely hated. We

have a toy company. We had a crypto we had like our first foray in and that like there's been so many different things that led me to this particular strategy. That I

had we not tried all that we would have never been here we would have never made it. Well.

Luckily, I'm stubborn, so there was no no possibility. We both

are neatly, like get up, brush our feet off and like jump back in type thing.

There was no there was no possibility of me saying oh, I just lost $20,000 Well,

and that's the thing. I think they say the biggest people with success actually face their failures with curiosity to figure out what went wrong.

I didn't want to say was curiosity for me. It was I was annoyed and irritated. Well,

however you want to call it I get annoyed and frustrated and stupid. I'm like, Okay, I clearly didn't understand this well enough. I needed like, dig into the details, find the landmines so

like one of the biggest like one of the biggest areas that it took me the longest time to figure out why I kept failing at investing was the psychology of the other people investing and they get to me that I it took me so long to grasp that concept. That it's not about the company is good or not as much as how others value it as much as how they perceive the company. And then you have the earnout irrational investors are like, Oh, the company had a bad earnings report. So it's good, it's garbage. And then they have a massive sell off and you're like what just happened? This company is still good. It's still great and everyone sold their stock. I'm the only person to holding stock to this company right now what is going on? So that took me that took me a hot minute as the kids say to figure out that it's not about the company as much as it's about the investors perception of the company.

And time because if you do wait it out and things do eventually Correct. I

still sometimes I'm just flabbergasted I'm like because I was like read some earnings reports like were the they beat on the revenue, they beat on the on the EPS they have more cash.

It just happened that you said went down and you're like what the hell just happened year over year

their cash like their cash on hand doubled and like the stock still went down? It's like what the hell just happened like

every day you just said it blew its earnings out of the water

whenever they did it and it went down. Yeah, that's what it was. It was the video like the video literally just crushed our earnings like they were like double What the Everyone thought they would be and they then they have like one of the few companies that had a higher expectations and earnings season was in the video and they blew all the metrics out of the water and they just said something about like there's a might be a chip shortage and they might be like, behind schedule on something other and like the stock went down like 12% Which doesn't make any sense

whatsoever with that kind of earnings report, that thing should have shot up like over 12% in one day.

So I think it's just the psychology of the investors like so that's why that's what got me started on what the newsletters about like I just tried to figure out like, because it's not rationality, it's not logic. What is it and apparently it's just crazy.

Well, usually when somebody just Piper focuses on one thing of bad news when everything else is good, that kind of indicates an overall market trend of fear. Meaning prices are probably gonna go down in the near future ish or like the trend is actually on its way down.

I still don't know what it is. I just know what happens and it's stupid. Like

you start getting different companies getting different results and it's just like wtf is happening. But what

it does is if you can take a step back from the nonsense, you can say, Oh, the video really good stock and it's down 12% Today, it presents a buying opportunity. Yes. So that's why that's one of the biggest aspects to take away from that but we will discuss that next week. So

key takeaways go against the grain basically, will not necessarily research in

advance if you could foresee that like next year, you know, interest rates are going to at some point, I'm assuming most of the people are going to know that and most people will be piling into the stocks. They should do well in a lower interest environment. But if you can see it before them, you can get into them while they're still way down and not just a little bit down. Yeah, you can get into them. A much better probably like if you get into AVR right now for example, AVR is like 12 something when it should be like 18 or $19. So you're gonna have that price appreciation up to 18 or $19 plus all the dividends and plus you beat the crowd to it and then say like you're getting the AVR and then you read something you don't like about AVR if you get into it early enough you can sell it whenever everyone else is in it and you can still make I don't know 10 to 15% Yeah, when everybody else wants to sell, you can sell with no problem. So like if you can foresee you the trends you can there's it opens up a lot of opportunities. That's the big one of the biggest takeaway. The second biggest takeaway is is really like find your favorite investors, whomever they are like the rich and powerful and read their 13 apps because that'll tell you what the trend was last quarter. Like last quarter was financials and energy stocks. Buffett and I can both invested heavily in both those. There's so much like they're boring as hell. But just do what I did is like don't read like what they say just like scroll down to the what they're holding. I don't care what they say. I just want to see what they're holding where they put like, because I don't let it's not an MPDF sometimes sometimes you

can like do that. Ctrl F find that

because it's I don't care what rich people have to say to me. Rich people lie lie a lot, but what doesn't lie is where they put their money. So why would I bother reading what they're saying? And then just look at where they put their money

into and experiment with that and read a couple of them and see what the heck happens subsequent so

that's another big things. So read the 13 apps of your favorite investors. Like that's actually I would think almost as important as reading the earnings reports of your favorite companies. I gave you a bunch of tickers should write them down and put them somewhere. They'll be in the show notes. Like Like always, yeah, like but they're really good ones like the SPH is really good one. I like that one.

Tim is actually giving stuff away while it's undervalued. So that's different from pretty much everybody else we hear listen to talk, everything

we invest in is undervalued because it's all shit on for a year. It's

gonna turn around. If you hesitate. You're gonna sit on the sidelines

portfolio went from 100,000 down to 80,000 but we're up to 87 now so that's

good. Our earnings are up so it doesn't even matter. So but

like if you just watch it like whoa, went down 20% But whatever. Okay, one day I'll actually like I will actually show the portfolio. Yeah, we're gonna have to figure out how the heck see what we have and be like, Wow, they have a lot of shit. Next, next weeks next week, so it'd be fun. We're gonna be talking to the first first part of the psychology stuff. It's gonna be it's gonna be a banger. I'm

excited about this because this is my like wheelhouse. Psychology is my favorite. So I compromise since you would just keep editing my videos. 

You’re so full of crap. You got intrigued by it and then you were like “you’re going to love this, you’re going to love this.” I’m like yes i will. 

No no, i did it so that you would keep editing everything. 

Oh really?

No. 

Oh, i was going to say, aww you love me. 

I do love you but. 

Yeah right. You’d never do anything like that for me. 

It’s important and i actually think there’s a lot of benefit to them knowing. 

Oh i think there’s a ton of benefits. Psychology is seriously one of the best things you can learn. 

I went through the list and I’m guilty of all of them but one. At some point in my trading career i was like oh, i did that. 

Can we do a self critique? I’m probably guilty of all of them. 

We can.

Cuz I have like 

I figure we’ll probably break it into 3 parts because it is long and lots of info. 

Alright cool. So if you got the next three episodes, December is going to be the psych month. 

Psychology, interesting. 

I love it. That’s awesome. You can eat cookies and listen to psychology info for trading. 

Alright guys, have an awesome week. 

We’ll see you next time.