Roaming Returns

036 - Why Stock Market Analysts Are Now Bullish For 2024

• Tim & Carmela • Episode 36

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It's Q4 earnings season and the overall market is beating projections by 6%, which is making market analysts change their tune for 2024. The fear of a recession is gone. Looks like Tim might have been right about a bullish 2024. 

Earnings season is a time to check in on the health of your portfolio assets. Sometimes people miss the big picture of a company's report and panic sell. But that's exactly when we're there to buy the dip like with ARLP.

Join us for a performance overview of many of our favorite stocks and how you can take up some great positions for what's to come.

Drop your comments or questions for this episode on one of our posts. 


Companies that beat their earnings

  • HTGC
  • NEE and NEP
  • BKH
  • OGN
  • MO
  • BTI
  • Most utilities stocks we mentioned in Episode 33


Companies that had a bad earnings (might be bad)

  • ABR (we think manipulation)
  • UAN coming up
  • MPW coming up


Potential Growth Stock Opportunities 

  • SOFI
  • PLTR
  • EXAI


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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

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Welcome to Roaming Returns, a podcast about generating a passive income through investing, so that you don't have to wait to retirement to live your passions. Today we're going to dig into earnings season because it's beaten the crap out of what was projected, which means we might have been right about where 2024 is headed. So today we're going to go over ways that you can use earnings to your advantage while other people are freaking out.
And tune in to the end because we got a couple of growth stocks, which we don't usually talk about. But you might want to be aware of these. All right, kids, here we go.
We're back at Roaming Returns. It's cold as piss out, although piss isn't cold, so it's cold as ice water out. A witch's titties and a cast iron bra.
I always thought that was like one of the funniest things my one ex used to say. Although the the ferret did say we're going to have an early spring. I think I mentioned that.
What does that actually mean? The groundhogs saw his shadow or didn't see a show. I know that part. But what does that mean? Does that mean like we actually have like 50 degree weather in March and mid spring supposed to come six weeks early? Sure.
Yeah. The ferret's not really reliable. The only good thing about Groundhog Day is the movie.
Yeah, well, it's always it's fun to watch. We actually ever watch it like they show it on C-SPAN every now and then. You see all these idiots out there at like four in the morning, like singing and dancing around, drinking and carrying on.
It's it's kind of it's kind of hilarious. I would never do it. Does anybody even know what we're talking about? I think it's a Pennsylvania thing.
The everybody knows the groundhog. Punxsutawney. I think the movie is what made it famous, but it's just why everyone knows it.
Podunk. There's a little tiny town in Pennsylvania and they have a ferret they keep. I'm sorry.
Groundhog. They keep trapped in a cage all year round. They bust it out every groundhog day at sunrise.
So all these idiots get up there at like four in the morning. It's a big party like they carry on with booze and hot chocolate and they're singing and dancing. And it's actually hilarious to watch on TV because I know I'm too big of a bitch to go up there when it's like 10 degrees outside.
So it's fun to watch other people do it. Okey doke. Okey doke.
So let's get back to what we're actually going to talk about, because I'm sure you're not here to listen about groundhogs. Weather. Weather.
And groundhogs. Prognostic prognostices. We are currently almost done with the fourth quarter earnings season.
So what happens is every there's four quarters in a year and the quarter that is currently in operation is reportings for the quarter that preceded it. So right now, in the beginning of the year, they're reporting for quarter four of 2023. Yes.
I didn't realize this. Yeah, it's always a few weeks behind. It makes sense.
But, you know, my brain. And if you don't follow earnings, it's literally just a company. Well, there's two facets to it.
There's the public persona facet where the company is all everything is rainbows and unicorns. Sunshine, rainbows and unicorns. Our company is great.
And then there's the stuff that they have to report to the SEC, which usually is a 10-Q or a 10-K form that. Super long, super boring. That basically breaks down what exactly is going on with the company, because like a company like it can like a company, for example, could lose like one hundred million dollars and they'll somehow like when they when they talk to the public, they'll be like that one hundred million dollars is going towards something super cool and research and development.
But in actuality, when they report it to the SEC, that one hundred million dollars is like a lawsuit or something like that. So it's it's don't believe what you read until you actually read the actual stuff that goes to the SEC where they can actually be fined and imprisoned and everything. It is just like when you're looking at food, whatever it says on the front of the box does not actually mean what it says in the ingredients and on the back.
So generally, they're not too important. If you follow the advice that we've given out for months now, if you get into a stock at a good valuation, you can take a hit if something goes down in earnings season. We basically use earnings reports as a three month checkup on our holdings to make sure that the revenue is still going up, the debt still going down, et cetera, et cetera.
All the all the other metrics we've discussed at Nauseam to make sure that's still going on. So I want to refresh real quick. I think we asked before how often we should be checking in on our portfolios.
I think that might have been an episode. Forgive me if it's not. I said you should check in on every earnings report.
Did you say every earnings report? You should check every stock. You should check in on every earnings report because what happens is they'll say, hey, the company's bleeding money. You don't want to be holding that and then just find out, fall a year later.
Fall like 20 percent or however much you're going to fall because you didn't check up on your portfolio. Now, I know a lot of places say you can just set it and forget it. That's the index funds.
Only if you have index funds, you can just set it, forget it. S&P 500 fund. But if you have anything else, you need to check up on it.
It's like anything in life. You have to check up on your car. You have to check up on your house.
You have to check up on your person. You have to check up on your cats or your dogs, like your kids, your spouse. Your portfolio is the same exact way.
You want to make sure it's healthy. So I have a question with this. How long does this actually take you to monitor? Probably half an hour each stock because it takes a while to like leaf.
It's like a hundred pages, hundreds of pages. But if you want to like that when you first start out, it takes like half an hour. But like what as you get more accustomed to like scanning the other forms, oh, you can probably do it in 10 minutes.
You start to know where to look, what to look for. And it does get easier with time. I'm going to show you an example today of how an earnings report is, quote, bad in the expert's eyes, but it's not bad.
And it actually presents a buying opportunity for a stock that we actually sent an email out about saying don't sell if you want to get into it. Buy. Well, and we've talked about earnings reports.
We used that when we first started trading or when Tim first started trading, he started to realize there was a pattern with earnings reports. And if you did a lot of research going into an earnings report and purchase the stock beforehand, knowing it was going to be a what do you call him? Hit him out of the park type one. Earnings beat.
If it's going to smash his expectations, you can actually buy them going into the earnings report. And then generally five or six percent rise after the earnings report comes out because it's a smash. That actually takes a lot of deterrent, like a lot of research, a lot of skill and like a lot of gut feeling, actually.
Well, and I was actually going to say I did momentum trading for a while. And the momentum traders, what they do is they wait for the reports to come out. They watch what the people are going to do reactivity wise.
And then they take a piece of that move versus us trying to previously trying to predict. When I was doing it, I was doing probably eight out of 10. I was getting right.
So that changed. Right. No, you were getting right.
But the people were not reacting the same way. Right. Sometimes.
Well, that's what became frustrating with the whole thing. That's kind of what led us to the income investing, because I was getting tired of like I would find a company that was going to have a really good earnings report. I would put money into it and then it would go down after a really good earnings report because people were taking profits or people were being misled.
And I'll show you exactly how here in a hot minute, how people get misled with this. My whole point. My whole point to what I was just saying, though, was that economic climates change, which means that people's sentiment for the same exact type of reporting can change drastically.
So that's why it's really risky unless that is literally your specialty of doing earnings reports. This is how Tim has taken that information that he and that past experience and turned it into a better win, in our opinion, and combined it and integrated that whole knowledge into the investing income investing strategy. Yes.
Like there's like I mean, there's certain things you have to look for. You have to look at the revenue, debt, earnings per share, year over year, like comparisons, basically like operating expenses, profit margin, stuff like that, like stuff that you look at before you buy a stock. You actually obviously don't want to look at whenever you're looking at the earnings reports to verify that they update the same data as being good as opposed to being bad.
If it's bad, then you have to start contemplating, do I need to sell this or is this just a bad quarter? And that's a whole other conversation. So what we're going to do, I'm going to talk about ARLP. We talked about it, I think, briefly in the last podcast or the podcast before I forget.
Yeah, I think we segued at the end. They on January 30th, they reported their fourth quarter earnings and all the the articles and the experts were like, oh, they their revenue fell by 11 percent. Their operating expenses increased by 5 percent.
Their EPS, earnings per share, was down by nearly 50 percent in the fourth quarter. And when they did that, that caused the sentiment in the stock itself to erode. So like average investors like you and I, we would go, oh, crap, this is a shitty company.
I'm going to get out of it. And once the once the institutional investors see the individual investors getting out of it, they're like, oh, so then they'll like their data gets hit or whatever and they start selling. So it caused a massive selloff of, I'm going to say, 12 to 15 percent is what it was down at one point.
I thought I hit 20 at it may have bounced back up. I don't know. But if you actually look at the 10, I think it was a 10 K in this instance.
But whatever. You actually look at the data itself. You can see how they mislead it to fit their narrative to get you to buy or sell.
So revenue they reported was 11 percent less in 2023 than 2024. And that actually was accurate in the fourth quarter of 2023. Revenue was 11 percent less than it was in 2024 or 2022.
But as this is a coal company, there's factors that could lead to lower revenue, like people aren't using a lot of coal if it's warm out in 2023 has been kind of a warm winter. But when you actually look at the revenue for the entirety of 2023 versus 2022, the revenue was up 6 percent. So I'm more interested in the revenue continually going up.
I don't like there's going to be quarters when it's down compared to the quarter previously. But that's not important. And this is just like that whole stocks market perspective.
If you zoom in and you see that something fell off a cliff, but then you zoom out and you realize it's literally just a tiny pullback for a bigger uprise. Like it's all about the scope of things. The same.
And like if you look at like their bullet points that they mentioned were revenue, operating expenses and earnings per share, the revenue we just discussed earning the revenue actually was up 6 percent for the 2023 versus 2022 operating expense in the fourth quarter was 5 percent higher than it was in 2022 fourth quarter. But again, if you look at the operating expenses for the totality of 2023, they were actually 6 percent lower than the operating expenses of 2022. So, again, conflicting data.
And I go with the year long data versus the snapshot data. Yeah. And if you're earning or your operating expenses are going down, you should, in theory, be making more profit or taking home more profit.
And then the earnings per share, they said it was 46 percent decline compared to 2022 fourth quarter, which it was when you compare 2023 fourth quarter versus 2022. There was a significant drop off. But if you actually look again at the full year, 2023 earnings per share were actually 10 percent higher than they were in 2022.
And that's a pretty significant number. Anything that's double digits for a year is a pretty significant number. So the fact that the earnings per share were up 10 percent means that in theory, the stock price should have actually.
Should have gone up. Yes. Despite.
I don't know why they spun it the way that they spun it or if somebody took it and ran with it or the news pumped it out in a specific way. But we first Tim. Firstly, that's why I never listen to experts like Jim Cramer's of the world or they're just I don't know how they make money.
If you ever get a chance, Google last week tonight, Jim. I linked it. Like, oh, my gosh, he's he's horrible.
I absolutely linked it because I thought it was super freaking hilarious. So what if you but what I what I got down to in the like the reason we sent the email out about ARLP is because the fundamentals are still really, really sound. Don't panic.
So actually buy the dip because it's a perfect opportunity to buy the dip. And if you actually listen to us all along, you should have got ARLP under 18 dollars. You can take the 12 percent hit.
Buy more shares. And then you're accruing more shares at a lower price if it's going to go back up in the 20 to 20, probably the 23 to 25 dollar range within the year. I'd be curious to see how long it takes us to pivot, because normally when something like this happens, when there's a either misinterpretation or somebody pumps a narrative, they reverse the narrative like a week.
And another reason why earnings reports, I don't think are as important in the context of things is because what these experts will do is they'll look at the the economy, how they want to see it. So, like, for example, they thought 2023 was supposed to be a recession. And and so they had low expectations.
So if you look at the number of companies that are beating the expectations on the EPS earnings per share and on the revenue front, it's astronomical. It's like super high compared to what it normally is. That's because they have low expectations for 2023 as a whole.
So they have lower number. And generally, most companies are beating the expectations, which doesn't say shit about the company. Just says that they had a low expectation.
We talked before about our prediction of why you believe it's going to be a bull market for 2024. And that to me would say that if they're beating that, that it probably signifies that it's going to be more boards leaning towards our initial prediction of being bull now. But you just said that their initial estimates came in low for 2023 because they had low expectations back to 2023 to have a recession because 2022 didn't.
So my question is, if they're beating it, are they beating it significantly enough for it to really signal it being a bull or is it a break even? Do you know what I'm saying? Normal expectation or what should have been a normal expectation? Have they not been? Earnings per share are only up about six percent, according to what they're looking for. So it's not a complete bull market beating. I would think that would be 10 to 12 percent range.
That was my question. But if they're beating them by six percent, that's a pretty good beat. That means the economy is actually in pretty good shape.
Contrary to the. What everybody says. But what more important that I got out of like all the experts predictions is they are actually projecting the earnings per share of the S&P 500 as a whole to grow by 10 percent in the second, third and fourth quarters of twenty twenty four and in the first two quarters of twenty twenty five, which that's that's significant, significant.
That is significant. That signals more of the full blown bull, which I think Tim was referring to before. So they're they're finally on board with the bull market.
Took them long enough. So maybe them actually seeing this quarter quarterly earnings of the first of the year. Excuse me.
First quarter of the year. And they're projecting they're projecting a 19 percent growth in totality for twenty twenty four and a 15 15 percent growth for twenty twenty five as well. Sounds like the optimism is going to start rolling in, which means the market should show it so like that when you when you get a chance to buy a company that actually has good fundamentals like ARLP does at a discount.
It should, in theory, bring you like a 20 percent appreciation plus the dividends. Dividends are pretty awesome, I guess. Last I looked, it was like 12 percent, 17 percent.
I forget some ridiculous high number. It's a good number. And we talked before about how when the price goes down, you actually increase your yield because you're getting it on sale and your yield is based off the share price that you pick it up at and the earnings or the the dividends they pay out.
And that's why I keep like harping on the contrarian value investing that we're doing, because if you get them at good prices when they appreciate you actually don't have to worry about that you overpaid and they're not going to have as much margins, profit margin as you would. Yeah. Overpaid.
You get your safety margin in there and then you can, like, get excited when you see these pullbacks. Whenever you get the weekly email, you see that I actually have it broke down. Like, here's what the price to earnings is of my 10 best ones going ex-dividend.
And here's what the price to earnings of their whole sector is. So you can see it. But generally, I think probably 90 percent of the time they're undervalued investments.
I think there's a couple that are overvalued. And I mentioned that they're overvalued, but they have a high dividend. So like the dividend should cover for the depreciation because they're overvalued.
So if you guys haven't signed up for the email subscription, you might want to do that because they're weekly and they're it's a time sensitive before this one company that this just reported a couple of days ago that we've been beaten the table about. Beaten. I feel like we should have a sound effect.
Forever now, like I've is Hercules Capital. Like it literally just HTGC. It destroyed its earnings like that.
It was so good that I think it went up like I want to say it was down near 20 percent like within two days. Hercules makes me think of He-Man. So what I actually had to do, it went up so much in two days I actually had to turn the drip off because it's becoming par like normal valued or overvalued.
So I turned the drip off so that I'm just getting cash on Hercules Capital for the foreseeable future. It shot up so much. It's like it's almost at a 52 week high and the 52 week high is actually the all time high.
Wow, that's really crazy. All time high. But like their investment income was up 38.5 year over year.
So they're not even doing the quarter versus quarter stuff on their report. Their EPS was six. What is that? 12 percent higher than the the estimate.
Their net investment net net income was up like ridiculous amount like that looks like what 30 percent more than it was a year in 2022. Their total investment income. I mean, the difference is net investment income versus regular investment income is kind of like net is after expenses take out.
Yeah, there's gross, which would be the total investment just like your paycheck after the expenses. They're operating expenses declined by five percent year over year like this was a really, really good earnings report. So if you want to see what a really good earnings report looks like, just next time in your brokerage, just type in HTGC and then look at their earnings thing when it pops up in the news feed.
It was a really good earnings report that actually moved the needle too far. Now we're in the realm of it's almost overvalued. Well, and then this is where people start to get really excited and they start to think that they're going to keep hitting these numbers right.
And then something will change possibly. I mean, if there's a possibility that it might keep going up, that's why you that's why I never recommend selling stuff. But I do recommend turning off the drip so you can and then you can like in three months time, you then can ascertain, OK, what's going on with it? So like you're getting your dividends, but they're not being reinvested because I I'm confident that are overvalued and you're not missing out on profits if like value increases.
You do with the only time I actually recommend selling is whenever it becomes a problem like I'm going to have here in the near future with both a con and Hercules Capital, they're going to be above my threshold for my total portfolio diversification. And that's going to who knows what's going to be going on with that. And those are tricky decisions to make because it sucks when you don't have enough money to actually make.
We've been beating the table about icon. Don't sell icon. Well, it came out this week that they literally.
Oh, I love this story. Talk about icon because IEP, we talked about it enough. He basically the first episode.
He basically just said I'm appointing these people to this. Well, hold on. Hold on.
Let's let's refresh real quick in case you haven't missed those episodes. So what happened with IEP? IEP ended up having that short seller come in, right? Shorts, a short seller report came in saying that the earnings per share was inflated and the dividend was not sustainable, which turned out to be somewhat accurate because they cut the dividend from two dollars to one dollar per share. The very next earnings report.
And I think they had to do that because the price dropped so significantly and they still had the price went down by like 70 percent throughout it all. I've held it because I got the fundamentals are still there. We're just collecting dividends, getting more shares.
So and this is why we love Carl Icahn going to what you're going to say now, because this is this is freaking awesome. What he did after he realized, like the company was not running the way that he wanted it, he went in and he cleaned house. Basically, he he they like I said, they they they cut the dividend.
He started they were doing short selling, so he stopped doing that like short selling if you're not like they were betting on the S&P to go down. And when the S&P didn't go down, they were losing money. So he closed out all the short positions, said we whiffed on that.
That was our bad. I'm pretty sure some people got fired. That's cool.
They admitted fault and they said we fixed it. And he invested more into his energy companies that he owns. I think it's CRX or something like that.
I forget exactly what the what the ticker is. And then he started looking for other opportunities to invest. And like once once the JetBlue and Sprint deal got blocked by the courts, he swooped in and he bought 10 percent of JetBlue.
And now that basically he's taking over JetBlue and people love it. And if you're a cheap traveler like we are, we love Sprint. We love JetBlue.
Spirit. Sprint's a phone company. We love we love Spirit.
We love JetBlue. But yeah, he's taking it like he's started the takeover of JetBlue. It's a very undervalued company and Icon, I think, was up 12 percent last week.
And I think that's a heck of a rebound. I think it's probably going to just keep going up in the near future. I think it's had two massive like up moves in the last couple of weeks.
So what I've been doing, actually, like in her mom's account, because her mom's account, I don't have to worry about the diversification of like our account because we have so much in it already is every time it drops below like 18, 17, 50, I pick up a few more shares. So her mom's making money like buckets of money on Icon, even though like it's, quote, a shit stock compared to the experts. So we ended up selling half of our position in Icon because we were over allocated in it.
Like our portfolio is way too heavy in that. And that's why we took a really hard hit because of that over allocation. We didn't take a really big hit.
I mean, it was a big enough hit. I actually put it into other things that we were so we turned out OK. But had we not been over allocated, you would have just stayed the course.
Right. I would have stayed the course, but we wouldn't have been near as the portfolio wouldn't be as near as nice as it is now. Yeah.
So you got to roll with the punches. This is basically what happens. Well, that's one of the things I was like I was tinkering about writing about is like when to sell, because that seems to be like any any idiot can buy.
It is selling is when I think selling I think selling is the art form that investing and that is like good investors have that most investors don't is like they know when to sell. It's because that greed component comes in. It's just it's the opposing and I determined at the time that Icon was we sold some of it at like thirty dollars.
We sold some of that twenty hours, but I was never going to get rid of all of it. So we took a loss of I want to say like four thousand dollars, but I was able to turn the proceeds from Icon into other investments that we picked up and we went over the when we went over the portfolio, like one of them was KRP. Another one was some of the YieldMax, which has been making us money left and right.
So like it's not a lost cause. You just write it off. And this is the whole thing is like don't be scared to cut losses.
Don't be scared to reallocate your portfolio and invest it in other stocks that have and meet the metrics. If you operate, if you do it from a logical metric driven point and you follow this and not desperation. Desperation is when you lose money.
Yeah. When you follow the system and you're unemotional, you will prevail. Even though we lost money, we still gain money and we didn't lose.
I think we probably broke even on the 4,000 we lost on ICON because I put some money into NAP and NAP was up like 40 percent. I know. I think we might have actually been up.
We're up more the way we fit. We changed allocation than how we just stayed 100 percent. But I don't like the people that all this company like that will be discussed like one of my biggest pet peeve things I loathe is stop losses.
I hate them. We're going to I think we should actually do a whole episode on stuff. And I'm in the minority and I will tell you right now, point blank, we are we that's an investment philosophy is in the minority.
Most people actually will have a 25 percent stop loss so they don't lose more than 25 percent of their money. And I completely agree with you. I disagree entirely with stop losses.
I don't like principle. They would be fantastic, but that's not how they operate, if you understand. And actually, when we do the stop losses thing, we'll go into further detail about how they actually make trades, because that is the difference and why they don't actually work in practical application.
The reason I don't like them is if the company still has good fundamentals and it's just a you recall the bad emotional day, psychological triggers that we went over before and people are just like, oh, fear of missing out because they want to sell everyone else to sell us their fear of missing out on the sell or the fear of losing money, fear of not falling in the herd, whatever the case might be. Sometimes the stock's going to go down 25 percent that I, for example, triple M went down 25 percent. And dude, if any time that's under a hundred dollars, you should be picking it up.
What about Verizon and Verizon and AT&T both went down like 40 because of that lead thing. And, you know, they're going to go back. I was I've been picking up Verizon whenever I can.
Chipotle has those big massive swings, too, and they find that E.coli and they're the lettuce and stuff. I mean, all the good companies have. So you should pay attention to the 25 percent pullback.
Yeah, for sure. Because they're good buying opportunities. But you should never actually like desperation sell because that like you're just like you don't lose money in the stock market until you sell.
Yeah. If you start looking at this pullback as opportunities, you make money when everybody else is losing it. And stock investing is a zero sum game.
So if they're all being stupid and panicking and jumping ship, swoop in with your life raft. And that's like I said, like that's why it's so important to follow the criteria of getting stuff undervalued, because and the more you do, he went down like it was like I think 18 percent. And like I was not sweating it because we were up like 30 some percent in it.
So it was like whatever, just a chance to buy more. And if you're on the email subscription, he actually said we sent an emergency email out saying, hey, guys, this is what happened. Like same thing with Verizon.
Verizon went through that thing like I had your mom in a little bit of shares in it. But then once it shot down, I just started stocking up on the shares because I know it's a good company. It's going to make money like who the hell cares? Like they have a monopoly.
Like that's why I kind of like the utilities. But we actually never really discussed that utilities because the government won't let them fail. And if you find the right utilities like they're literally just a cash machine, cash cow.
They're not sexy, but they don't yield like the 10 or 12 percent like we look for in a lot of other investments. But if they're yield five percent and they're raising their dividend 10 percent every year within like five years, you're going to be making double digits. Right.
Your original buy in price. You will eventually be making double digit. So that's my philosophy on utilities.
They're all undervalued right now. So just do your research and take your pick. Yeah.
And that was the thing I didn't understand when I first started researching this. I was like, why would anybody take a four percent dividend on these like dividend aristocrats? And then I was like, oh, it's the long term growth aspect. So we don't do all of those, obviously, because we went over the portfolios because they're usually overpriced.
Usually overpriced. They don't get a lot. But like if you like if you stock up, say, on 20 percent of your portfolio on utilities, well, you know, that's a safe chunk of your portfolio that's tied up in safe investment.
So then you can be kind of more lenient with, say, like an AGNC or testing the waters in other sectors as HRZN or like something like that. That's like 11, 12, 15, 18 percent. You can you can put a little bit money in that because if it goes down, you're still going to cover your losses, your principal losses.
Heck, even IEP with the utilities. And I did find two ridiculous utilities, something or another this week that I'd never found before. So tune in the next week.
We'll tell you exactly how he found them, because we're going to talk about Tim's screening metrics. Yeah, the screener for next week's episode. Any investor should have their own screening metrics.
You know what makes you comfortable. You know what makes something risky. You know what is what you're looking for.
So you should establish your own screening method and you should have it in your brokerage. So any time you're like dealing around with nothing to do, just put your screener in and see what it pops up. Then go research.
Tim's really dialed his in. So we'll be sharing that one in next week's episode. It's pretty sick.
So going back to earnings reports, any other hitters out of the park? Any other massive drops in anything that we thought was good? NEE killed it. NEP killed it. Pretty much all the utility companies.
BKH was really good at their earnings. So if you guys got into any of those from the last episode. OGN, which is one that we mentioned in passing.
It's like a pharmaceutical company that's vastly undervalued. It was vastly undervalued. We got it for like eleven dollars and it's now like damn near twenty.
It had a really good earnings report. So it's almost like a hundred percent. That's crazy.
Well, that's why last week the market was actually down, but we were up like seven percent for the week compared to the market. Like all because all of our stuff's reported in their earnings later. And they're all smashed.
We're finally starting to see the proceeds of like the diligence of the strategy and pull that and like the dividends are doing what they do, doing what they compound in, compounding and doing. They were getting this more shares. There's not a lot of shares like but still like five or six shares per quarter.
So that's like 20 different shares. So did anything actually have questionable earnings that we own that we've talked about in any of these past episodes? ABR did. ABR had some conflicting earnings like their revenue was good, but the earnings per share went down.
So in theory, their share price should go down and their share price did go down. But that one, like I'm pretty sure I think there's a high number of people shorting that stock because they see it's pretty volatile right now. So it like one day it's up like four percent.
The next day it's down four percent. And the next day it's up five percent and it's down three percent. It's crazy what's going on with ABR right now.
But that's a really good company. Like the revenue is still good. It's just the EPS went down and like their their interest payments went up, obviously, because they have a lot of debt at a higher interest rate.
So the interest payments went up a lot. Speaking of higher interest rates, I'm just going to like sideline, drop this in here. I don't know if we mentioned it in the podcast yet, but worthy bonds, we talked about it back in what is it? Five or six episode, five or six.
They just increased their promotion rate from six percent to seven percent. Worthy bonds is pretty sick. So if you guys haven't signed up for that and you guys want a free ten dollar bond and give us a free ten dollar bond for being awesome income strategy providers, feel free to sign up under our show link or promo link and you'll get a free bond.
We'll get a free bond and that'll get you rolling. Like that is. And if you don't know what that is, go back to that episode, because worthy is the shit.
You know, there's two this week that might be bad ones. You weigh in. Oh, you're just talking about that one.
It was because it has a six dollar and sixty six cent dividend. Oh, that's the one with the massive dividend. Yeah, their earnings is coming out.
And I do believe Camping World comes out this week. I'm really curious to see what Camping World clocks in at after after all the it'll be interesting. But BTI smashed their earnings.
M.O. smashed their earnings. So if you're into tobacco, they they're doing wonderful things. Like, I mean, it sounds bad, but the percentage of people smoking is going down.
And so the companies have actually. It is not in other countries. I was just in Greece.
Holy crap. The company is actually navigated and they don't smell sell as many cigarettes now, but they're doing like the like the Ons, like my num nums. They're doing like the vaping.
They're doing like like drinks with shit in them and stuff like that. Like they're they've actually they've realized that they're revitalized. They're they're they're products.
And that's actually a sign of a good company. I was wondering about that with Coke and Pepsi, because people are getting on this whole health kick and they're they're starting to want to drink stuff other than soda. I disagree with a lot of the like a lot of the experts say Coke's a superior stock.
And like if I had to choose between Coke and Pepsi, I'm taking Pepsi, even though I can't stand Pepsi. Pepsi pays a less dividend. But Pepsi actually had the foresight to actually they they branched out and they bought water.
They have waters and like they got the snack line. They got like Lay's potato chips and stuff like that. They went out and they actually bought different revenue streams that aren't.
They saw that they might actually be at risk if they had too much specialty. Whereas Coke didn't really do that. Coke just has like they still have the drinks.
They haven't really branched out to the snacks yet. So that's why Pepsi is still better, in my opinion, what that's worth. I think IIPR reports this week. IIPR, that's the marijuana one, right? That's the marijuana. I'm getting so good. I'm getting so good at the tickers.
I'm so proud of myself. I typically have acronym issues. But REITs just hold the course.
Keep keep buying the REITs and the BDCs because the interest rates are going to go down at some point this year. We don't know when the inflation data that came out this week wasn't so good. So June, maybe the rates will start going down.
But it could be May. It could be July. It could be August.
You know, all we know is the rates are going down at some point. We just don't know when. So start stocking up on all these companies that are depressed because their revenue is less because of higher interest rates and their debts higher because of higher interest rates, because they're good buys right now, the REITs.
I mean, obviously not all REITs, like office REITs. I would stay away from completely. Yeah, we've talked about that.
They're going to the dinosaur ship side. Although there's people like they're talking about Stag and O and like Stags, like all industrial REITs. Industrial is the next one that's probably going to.
You think so? Yeah. Interesting. I'm not so sure about that.
I know warehousing has to be going up with the amount of Amazon and all these other shipping and storage places. But I definitely agree with the NPW comes out this week. So we'll actually be able to.
Yeah, we'll be really touch on that one. Really curious to see what the heck that thing's doing, because because of at this point, like it's whatever it is. Well, so that's the thing.
We thought it was going to turn around. It's been a good company for a long, long time. And then they had.
What did you say? They they said that they weren't getting paid by the one. Their largest renter is not paying them. But then you said that you think that that's actually a cop out for.
What did you say? Well, no, like their largest renter wasn't paying them. So like they actually had to restructure their largest rentee or whatever tenants that so they did do that. But I don't know.
Yeah, but something else happened. You said that you kind of start to lose faith in that company. I think they're going to cut their dividend again.
That's what it was. I think they're going to cut their dividend again. Right now, it's currently what? 15 cents or some nonsense.
We got a lot of money in that, too, don't we? Or did you take four thousand all you cut some losses? Yeah, I waited for a spike whenever I saw it was going down. And once it dropped below ten, once it spiked back up to like eight or something like that, I took like half our money out of it. OK, and put it into other stuff.
And that was the thing. Once Tim started reading the news, he started seeing that it was a little bit risky, like DOGG, SLRC, BITO, PDI. Like all these ones I bought in November. Were from.
My NPW, like selling for losses. And we have no regrets, right? SRLC is up by five percent, BITO is up by 30 percent. PDI, which is the bond one, is up a lot because bonds are all the fucking rage right now for some reason.
Yeah, I know. Oh, I swore my bad. No, it's OK.
YouTube's not going to like that. I've been speaking of YouTube, guys. So what I'm doing going forward, I've actually been really binging on taking all of our past episodes.
We are going to eventually be doing video with audio going forward. But until we're actually like out of the condo and less overburdened with all sorts of other stuff and in nature, which is what we're supposed to be doing, where we belong, we'll actually deal videos with them. So what I've done, I've gone back and I'm starting to work through.
I think I only have like eight episodes completely edited for video. I've added video to them and I've uploaded them to Facebook. So you can actually go into Facebook and comment on the individual episodes because that's the one thing I hate about podcasting.
You can't eat. There's no comments directly under the episode. So I posted them on YouTube and I posted them on there.
YouTube is going to be a little bit of a slow grind for the new episodes coming out because I want to keep them in order. But I'm going to be posting them on Facebook. So for every episode starting now going forward, there's going to be links in the show notes that take you directly to the episode in question with the video where you can actually comment.
We'll get back to you on this specific episode. So if you have questions, if you have comments, if you have, you know, good to knows, whatever, let us know. For those of you keeping score in the yield max, Tesla's the shit.
It just gives you a lot of money. But the ones I found that are really good are the Amazon one, the Coinbase one, the Nvidia one and the Microsoft one. They're all doing excellent.
And they're paying about between 10 and 20 percent per per year. Which is really, really good. And again, if you don't know what the heck the Yieldmax ones are and you want to understand our strategy, go back to the Yieldmax.
They don't have earnings reports. So you actually have to look at the underlying like the company. They're based on to go look at the Amazon report, which is really good.
I think that's why the Tesla one's doing super bad. But the Coinbase one was the Coinbase blue. It's got earnings out of the park.
So that one should be really good. But you think that the Tesla Yieldmax is actually being managed by somebody different than some of the other ones? It has to be. It's horrible compared to the other ones.
So we're we have the we have the the the AI one. See what is it? Aiyy or whatever. We have the C3 one.
We have the Exxon Mobil one. We have Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon and Coinbase. And none of those are reacting the same way Tesla is.
Tesla's I think the man whoever manages that one should be fired because they're just garbage. You hear that Yieldmax? If you're already taking action, which I think they're I think they are going to. And it's not like it's the only one that is underperforming.
It's not because like Tesla is doing bad. Tesla stocks down a little bit. Yes, but like their Yieldmax is down like 70 percent, whereas their stock's only down like 10 percent.
And then when the stock goes up, like, say, 7 percent, the Yieldmax doesn't do anything. And if the stock goes down like 12 percent, the Yieldmax drops like 10 percent. So like it's only going down.
Yeah, they clearly have a bad strategy. I don't know who's writing the calls on that one, but they're shit. And they should be looking for a new job.
For sure, in my opinion. But that's that next week. We're going to we're going to talk about.
Yeah, we're going to bring up the screener strategy. And if so, next week's is going to be kind of technical. But in a way, but it's super informative that like if you can if you can create your own screener that is efficient, it'll save you so much work because there's 19,000 potential stocks and funds and ETFs and everything to go through.
Yeah, nobody has time for that. If you can, if you can screen it down, if you can somehow screen that down to say a couple of hundred and then you just research them at your leisure, you'll actually have a good pool of things to pick from. A good watch list.
And then you create an even better narrowed down watch list. And then when you see one of these dips, you can be like easy decision to pick up some shares. OK, so like a couple of our growth stocks had really good earnings reports as well.
So far, I had a really good earnings report. And so did Planeteer, PLTR. I don't know how to say it.
PLNT or PNTR, whatever it is, Planeteer (PLTR). You don't know the ticker. It'll be in the show notes.
I got to get the right info. No, but they both had really good earnings reports and they're up like 30 percent. Another one that had a decent earnings report.
It's really hard to judge because it's so small cap is the EXAI. That's one that I'm super high on that I think is going to make us like hundreds of thousands of dollars. We normally don't do growth stocks, but Tim's taken his Roth IRA and he's kind of gone YOLO mode and.
Picking some doozies, man. I'm up like 200 percent in something called ADAP. In the crypto route, in the crypto episode, we talked about a bit.
We probably should have our own episode, honestly, because I could talk ad nauseum about that as well. But that EXAI one is something that we've had in a bunch of emails. And they like, again, you're talking about those spammy mofos.
They're trying to charge me so much money. Dollars for our best stock pick growth going to be 11,000 X. Blah, blah, blah. How I figured out some of their like, OK, this is for anybody that gets crap mail.
Whenever they give you the videos and they start giving points, like start research as the point and just type that point in. Like the way I found the EXAI, the guy was talking about Sanofi Sanofi or whatever, the pharmaceutical company in Europe that spent like five billion dollars in this company. So I put in Sanofi Sanofi, a five billion dollar contract, and it popped up to this company.
And I was like that little bastard. I've done that a couple of times with crypto, and I've actually stumbled on the ones they were hiding. But they want you to spend like two thousand dollars.
They literally wanted us to spend two thousand dollars just for that stock pick. So like there's ways there's workarounds, but like that one's doing. I think that one's going to be a pretty good company.
What they do is they literally they've taken pharmaceutical and they actually use an AI to create drugs specifically for people for health. So it's a health AI combination for like four people, like person, like one person will go in with some sort of blood cancer and they'll actually type it into AI. The AI will spit out what their what their medical and it'll come up with a specific actual treatment should be.
And they're using that. And which is and they have think about the implications of that. They have contracts from like six of the biggest pharmaceutical companies.
They're really they're going to pop off. They've already popped off. They were up by eight, 10, I think eight or 10 percent last week.
They were up like six percent the week before. We got it at like five dollars and it's already up to seven. So we weren't we didn't share it initially because we've only heard it in a couple of places.
But it's now at the point that Tim's emails are coming in and it is like back to back to back. EXAI, EXAI, EXAI, I'm getting a lot of emails on and the other one. But we've already mentioned it a few times.
So I'm getting a lot of emails on is NEE slash NEP. So apparently Tim was ahead of the curve on that one, too. He is doing the whole.
Oh, what is that? The Jesus is the Jesus pose. Oh, my gosh. So next week we'll bring to bring up the screener.
It's important. We'll talk about the screeners next week. So thank you so much for tuning in, guys.
I hope you enjoyed it. Hopefully we didn't glaze your eyes over a little too much. Listen to it a couple of times if you need to.
And then I'm going to have all the tickers in the show notes as usual. And if you guys haven't signed up for the email subscription and you want to be able to take advantage of things before they go active, Tim cultivates a specific list. And one of my like one of my rules is I don't buy something the week of they're going next dividend.
So I just think it's too volatile. But like I give you like plenty of days ahead of time. Like it says what's going.
I'm hoping to at some point get the email out on Friday. But I didn't know you wanted to do that. We can do that on Friday morning and they can buy what's going next week and they can.
But and it's just my personal preference. Other people, whatever, because there's too many people that think they can do dividend capture, so they'll start messing with the prices on the on investment of the week that it goes. Dividend capture for what you don't know.
That's when you buy it before it goes ex dividend. You hold it through its ex dividend date and then you wait for it to go back up to kind of where it was before it went down. And then you sell it.
You're getting like a one to two percent gain. And you're taking that dividend and you're getting the dividend cash. So it's like dividend hoppers, whatever you call it.
That's like I don't recommend that. It's very difficult. No, like our strategy is to buy good companies, hold them and keep getting paid dividends.
There's no guarantee that it's going to go back up after it goes ex dividend. That's true, too. I mean, Hercules Capital, you could probably do it with.
Stop condoning bad behaviors. There's certain ones like Main Street Capital, Hercules Capital. Like they they go down when it goes ex div.
It drops by the price of the dividend. And then like within the day or within that same day, it goes ex dividend or the next trading day, it's back up to where it was. Baby cakes.
OK. Those are advanced strategies that just can potentially lead to bad behaviors. We want to teach them the proper behaviors.
So they can win. Just ignore everything I just said. All right.
We hope you guys have a great week. We will see you in the next episode, next episode.