079 - 2024 Market Prediction Results - Was It A Slam Dunk Or Utter Failure?

Remember at the beginning of 2024 when Tim went against the norm by saying he was bullish and made some predictions?

Well, you’re gonna want to check out what happened. 

Today we’re covering what he got right and what didn’t pan out. Also he put the data together for what would have happened to your portfolio if you bought into everything he recommended. 

You’re going to be blown away. I know I was. 

Here's the link for how a portfolio based on Tim's recommendations would have performed. 

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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

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Transcript

Welcome to Roaming Returns, a podcast about generating a passive income through investing, so that you don't have to wait till retirement to live your passions. Remember back at the beginning of 2024 when Tim went against the norm by saying he was bullish and then made some predictions? Well, you're going to want to check out what happened. Today, we're covering what he got right and what didn't pan out.
He also put together the data for what would have happened to your portfolio if you bought into everything that he recommended. You're going to be blown away. I know I was.
So now let's get started with refreshing what those predictions actually were and what happened. What's up, guys? What's up? I know we had suggested last podcast that we were going to do crypto, but when I was looking into crypto, I think it's too early to start doing that. The halving just happened in April, and there's like 100 to 120 days after that before the price really starts doing what it's supposed to do.
So that was in August, and then we had the election, so I think crypto is going to pop off for the next 8 to 12 months. We're going to have just a little bit of delay from the normal halving cycle that normally occurs. But crypto is good.
If you're in crypto, awesome. If you're in the crypto, we recommend it even better. So the crypto thing will probably be down the road a little ways.
Not right now, but then so I was like, what can I do now? And I was trying to find the actual crypto email that I wrote, and I couldn't find it, and I stumbled across the two emails that were talking about what I thought 2024 was going to be like. And I was like, huh, how do I do? And then I went down that rabbit hole, and that rabbit hole was really sexy. I didn't know rabbit holes were sexy.
Yeah, this is a sexy rabbit hole. It has like all that rock around the hole, and the grass is all worn down. You've never seen a sexy rabbit hole? Oh my God.
They exist. Okay. Were you a rabbit in a past life? I was a, yes, I was Bugs Bunny.
So the first thing we have to address is what did I actually say at the end of 2023? Well, one of the first things I said was interest rates are going to be cut at some point in 2024. I didn't know when they were going to happen, but loading up on quality REITs like ABR, CCI, AMT, and SLG now at that point when they were extremely undervalued was a good idea because REITs have been just destroyed because of interest rates for like the past two years. And I thought that once the rates started getting cut, the REITs would come roaring back.
So that was the first thing that we addressed in 2023, about 2024. The second area that I talked about was healthcare. I said because every day there's 10,000 more people retiring, the boomers are getting boomered.
Boomered. Our population is the oldest. It's been in a long, long time.
And with an aging population comes a need for healthcare. So I suggested like Pfizer, PFE, GSK, OGN, BMY, and SNY would be good ideas for your healthcare pharma stocks. And I suggested that you should look for ones that have a history of dividend increases since most healthcare stocks only paid between three and 7% yield.
Okay. That was the second point. The third point was pot.
Pot, pot, pot. The marijuana. I said because there's a huge push to legalize cannabis going on and it's still going on.
The movement started years ago. It expanded to I think like 20 some states and there was a few more this past election that was on the ballot. This is not going away, but I thought 2024 would be a good year for pot stocks like IIPR, SMG, and STZ.
At the end of this, we're going to go through the chart and you guys are going to be like, whoa, this guy knows what he's talking about except for like these three stocks, but whatever. The fourth one was technology. And I said more specifically and artificial intelligence stocks would be super popular in 2024.
And I mean, that's a no duh. So I'm not really taking too much credit for that one. But the part that I'm actually happy about, and this we'll get to in this chart, I suggested that you're not going to get much in the form of dividends.
So the growth plays with some small dividends unless you did the yield maxes, but like Apple, AAPL, NVDA, IBM, Microsoft, MSFT, and Intel, INTC will be popular and should increase 10% CAGR. And then I said, I like funds like AIO, NBXG, and BSTZ, or even Hercules Capital, HTGC, or HRZN way more than holding the blue chips. When it comes to the tech blue chip stocks, I kind of look for closed-ended funds because they're actually, they leverage what they have, or they write covered calls on what they have to actually give you a pretty decent yield.
Whereas most of the tech stocks are paying like 1.2 or below per yield on each share. And then I did bring up the yield maxes, AAPL, what is it? APLY, MSFO, and NVDY. So we're going to discuss what would happen with those here in a hot minute.
I also suggested that 2024 will be a big cryptocurrency year, which didn't really pan out until the end of the year. Because Bitcoin was due for halving in 2024, which actually happened in April. And 2024 was a pretty good year up to April.
And then whatever the hell happened over the summer happened over the summer. And then once the election happened, crypto just did crazy shit. I think it did what it was supposed to do back in April, but I think it was manipulated, or the big hedge funds got in and the whole freaking paradigm shift.
So where it deviated from the past three halvings was normally during the halving years, the six months before the halving, the prices start to tick up and then they skyrocket towards the halving date a little bit after the halving date. And it's usually 12 to 18 months after the halving that the prices are crazy. We basically went sideways from like July through October.
So for the cryptocurrency, we did actually outline specific cryptos. We'll address that when we do the cryptocurrency podcast down the road. But I suggested BITO, the stock that basically trades on Bitcoin options, is where I would put my money if I was doing the stock market approach to cryptocurrency.
And then I said the last area to invest in if you've missed the financial and energy upswing in 2023 is bonds. They were ridiculously undervalued at that time. Like 20% undervalued.
That was true. We got a bunch of super quality bonds for like 15% discounts that were yielding between five and eight. We've talked about that throughout the year, like how we've sold off bonds.
Or they bought back. Or they bought back. And then we just started recently selling on the end of October, beginning of November, we started selling off our bond funds because they were becoming overvalued.
Like PDI. PDI is like the bomb when it comes to bond funds. We still own that.
I turned the drip off. But we also had DSU, which was super overvalued. So I sold all of those shares.
And we had YYY in the retirement portfolio. I'm still holding some of the YYY positions. But in the van life portfolio, I got rid of YYY entirely because it was super overvalued as well.
And then I have this normal stuff too. I said, you can always invest in triple M or Verizon or AT&T. They pay a decent dividend and they've been doing it forever and they're awesome.
The last thing I mentioned was utility stocks are awesome. And the utilities had a ridiculous 2024. I suggested UGI, SPH, BKH and D in the utility area.
I remember D. Those were the stock portions. But then we went into detail in the podcast and another email. And because people were not bullish, this was my rationale for being bullish for 2024.
So we did another episode on why we're basically bullish for 2024. And then some of this information was from that episode. Presidential election years average 11% returns throughout history.
They're actually 23% right now or something like that. So like it smashed the normal average presidential election year. And then I said, we are just in the very beginning of the AI boom.
If you look at the previous earth shattering technology advances, the internet, smartphone, et cetera, they generally performed well for years. It was not a one off result. Yeah.
So I mentioned Intel again. I mean, Intel was probably the shit show of all the things I meant I recommended. But Intel is so a buy right now.
If you haven't bought any Intel shares, you're missing out. It's already gone up a bunch, hasn't it? Yeah, we got like I remember saying in the podcast, I said, we're actually buying into Intel. Even though they completely cut their dividend.
They like they cut the dividend. They had a horrible quarter three earnings report and everybody was jumping off the bandwagon. But Intel makes you got to understand they're making like 14 or 15 billion dollars a year.
And they're starting to diversify into the AI thing. So much income is generated revenue wise by Intel that they're like it was trading at like ten dollars or some shit like that. So like there is no reason for it to be trading that low.
So Intel, if you haven't bought it, I would buy it up to about twenty seven, twenty eight dollars. And then I would just sit on the gains. Yeah.
Like apparently we were five months ahead or Tim was five months ahead of that that whole Oracle sense. Then I also said cryptocurrency will make people very greedy and euphoric around the Bitcoin having in April 2024 and beyond when people get greedy, money flows everywhere. And that so happened because you recall we were discussing there was like five trillion on the sidelines and money markets and CDs and stuff like that.
Well, that money started to flow back into the market and the market started going up. And it's just it's just awesome. Am I bullish on 2025? I haven't finished typing that up yet, but that's what we're talking about.
Keep going. Then the point number four, I said the economy is doing way better than the experts predicted. The GDP is still growing super fast.
Unemployment is still very strong and consumers are still spending the reset. The recession that like ninety eight percent of the experts said it was 100 percent going to happen never happened. In fact, the opposite happened, which is what we would what Tim predicted.
The economy grew. Inflation peaked months ago. And if you look at if you look into the past, the last time was inflation was super high in the 70s.
You will see the exact same patterns unfolding. So I said using the past, you can see that it will take about 12 to 18 months to get to the target inflation line for whatever if it's two or two and a half. I mean, it's supposed to be two, but I think they're going to bump it up to two and a half.
But because inflation is declining, interest rates should be cut in 2024. When this happens, the stock market is going to the moon and it's going to the moon. And I said the United States, for the first time in a long while, is starting produced to produce our own goods and services again.
The virus showed that the overlords showed the overlords that the U.S. is far too dependent on foreign governments and like the supply chain and all that stuff. So the result is more factories, more infrastructure, more technology being created in America again. I said then a couple that with the U.S. being one of, if not the leading oil exporter in the world right now.
And you have a recipe for massive returns in 2024. And then I said 2023 was from a distance a great year for stocks. But if you dug a little deeper, you found that the majority of the gains last year were due to like a handful of companies.
It was like 10 or 12 companies. Most companies lagged behind, which was good news for 2024. The laggards would come roaring back.
Yeah, because normally I think I even said what happens is like the stocks that are the leaders start first and then the others come up behind them. So yeah, usually you have a surge market after. So I said I was very bullish.
I expected the market to return 14 to 15 percent in 2024. And I thought because we're in income stocks, income stocks generally don't return what the market does. I said we see about 6 to 10 percent growth.
And I said I'm not an expert. That's my opinion. And that's why I was bullish in 2024.
So there you have all the the the bullet points. So I thought 2024 was going to be the recap of that. And so we did back where to invest your money.
So how did I do? What's the scorecard? Mm hmm. Well, the REITs and ABR had a total return of like less than one percent so far. CCI is actually down five percent.
AMT is down about four percent and SLG is up 80 percent. So like we've knocked out of the park with one of them. But it's too early to tell because they have a lot of dividends to pay out and everything.
I think the REITs are not going to perform as well as I thought, regardless of how the rest of the year pans out. Because? Because I didn't actually these aren't mortgage rates. I think mortgage rates I should have actually dug in, dug in deeper and found that mortgage REITs are actually better for lower when the interest rate is being lower than like just standard REITs.
Because I think that was something we talked about was like not all REITs are created equal. So it depends on which ones you're in. Like there's pot REITs, there's all sorts of different ones.
So they're not all created equal. So if you hit SL, SLG, but the other two weren't, I imagine. But if you put equal money into say you put a thousand dollars into ABR, a thousand into CCI, a thousand into AMT, a thousand into SLG, you're up a lot.
So there you go. That's what we do. If you didn't put money into SLG, you're down.
But if you did, you're up. So I have in that category, I have one win, one possible win and two possible losses we'll see at the end of the year. But I think overall, it's a loss.
But at the same time, they're high yielders, right? Yeah. So even if the prices didn't go up or they went down a little bit, again, you're getting more shares and you're still getting paid and you're actually making up for that loss difference. And then if and when they do pop off, you're going to be sitting pretty.
So I messed up on the REITs, but I still believe in REITs. And yeah, as for the pharma slash healthcare stocks, Pfizer is down 6%, GSK is down 4%, SNY is up 2%, OGN is up about 12% and BMY is up 20%. So this is kind of a mixed bag.
But what you're seeing is the ones that have more exposure to AI, which is the SNY, OGN and BMY. They actually performed much better than the ones that have limited exposure to the AI, which is the PFE and GSK. I didn't actually specify invest in healthcare or pharma stocks that had a lot of research and development in healthcare.
So now we're seeing that differentiator real time. But as a whole, this is a win. The healthcare and pharma stocks are up a lot.
As for the pot stocks, IIPR is up 12%, SMG is up 24% and STZ is about break even. Um, this was a really big win, actually. Yeah, considering IIPR is our biggest one that we said to get in.
Legally, like the legalized marijuana was a huge win, like super, super duper huge win. And then the tech stocks, um, yeah, I don't need like, outside of Intel, Intel, which was down 48%. But that was your start to the end, right? Yeah.
Like Apple's up 25%, NVIDIA is up about 200%, IBM's up 42%, Microsoft's up 13%. AIO is up 45%, which is crazy for a closed-ended fund to be up 45% in a year. Yeah, that's huge.
MBXG is up 28%, which again is crazy for a high yielding closed-ended fund to be up 28%. BSTZ is up 40%. HTGC is up 23% and HRZN kind of shit the bed, it's down 20%.
But if you put equal money into all these, dude, you made a lot of money. Like my tech, my tech stocks were just awesome. So how did you calculate NVIDIA if NVIDIA did a stock split? They do it for you.
Oh, okay. I was curious about that. And Intel's, again, you have to remember that Intel did a dividend cut partway through the year.
So their starting price and their price after that dividend cut, like, yeah, it dropped like, uh, like, well, healthcare stocks, we were, uh, like up a lot in all of these until they, um, uh, Kennedy was appointed as the, the health czar. And because he doesn't believe in anything other than like, I guess. So if you would've looked at Pfizer and GSK before.
Yeah, we're in Pfizer. We've been in Pfizer all year. Pfizer was running about 12 to 14% up.
So it dropped like 20% after, uh, Kennedy was appointed. GSK dropped about 12 to 15%. I told you that was going to happen with the Pfizer thing.
Just, just because I told you we're still up a lot. Well, and then Tim did some more digging because I kept expressing concern and he's like, I'm not worried about it. I think we talked about it in another podcast episode where he said it has like national or international coverage.
Yes, yes. But you discovered because of my nagging that Pfizer is not investing in the AI component that investing as much as the other companies are. So Pfizer actually is going to lose its status in my opinion.
They still owe me 42 cents per share. Once they pay that, I'm probably going to start liquidating Pfizer and putting it into OGN. Yeah.
And that's big because we believe in this AI health hybridization. We've been talking about that for a while. And if Pfizer's being hesitant because they don't see the thing, they're not going to be a leader anymore.
One of these other companies is going to take over that position. So then I, my, my, um, yield maxes APL wise up 14% MSFO is up 10% and NVD wise up 96%. So if you invested the deal maxes, like I recommended, you're sitting on a shit ton of money, but boom, and the BITO BITO is up about 85%.
And that was that, what is that a fund or a futures for Bitcoin future for Bitcoin? That's the only stock I recommended to actually invest in for cryptocurrency. If you're not investing in cryptocurrency by itself, just invest in BITO. You don't have the number for the Coney.
I didn't recommend Coney. Oh, okay. Triple M is up 44%.
Verizon's up 22%. AT&T's up 41%. So if you've invested in those consumer ones, you're again, massive, massive, massive gains.
UGI is up 20%. SPH is up 17%. BKH is up 23%.
D is up 29% ish around there. And if you've invested in the utilities I recommended, you are crushing it for utility stocks. And that's huge for utilities.
Like they don't usually go up like that. That's huge. So Tim nailed that.
And then the bond fund I mentioned PDI is up 22%. So like there's a lot to unpack here. So if you just do like a win loss, I am up in 27 and down in seven.
So that's not as good as the experts would always tell you that we have like a 94% win rate, but they skewed the data though, but they don't sell until they're up. So this is literally just a snapshot where we are currently. If you invested equally across all the things I recommended, you have a 26.2% total return.
So what's the return of the market? That's what dividends reinvested. If you just do a straight up, like what did you make price appreciation, you'd be up 16%, which is insane. That's insane that you're up 16% and you're up 26.25% in income.
These are income paying stocks. The only one that didn't pay a dividend was Nvidia. It pays like a 0.3 dividend.
Everything else pays a pretty good yield. And then Intel after it did its dividend complete cut. So I mean, again, I have to stress that again, 26% on an income investing portfolio is insane.
That's insane. I really only missed on two, which was Intel and HRZN. The rest of them are that are too close to call or however you want to say it too soon to tell.
Did you really miss on Intel? They are trading sideways, which I've been a proponent for a long time now when the market trades sideways, I love it. It's my favorite market was when it's trading sideways. I told them to buy until they dropped 40 some percent.
You said to buy before? Yeah. Oh. I do believe that the other five that are too soon to tell or too early to tell or whatever, they're going to be up by the end of December.
In fact, I believe the average gain on all these stocks will be greater than 30% by the end of the year. I think it'll be about 31, 32% depending on what we have going on with the Santa Claus rally. It could be closer to 35 to 37% total return on those stocks I mentioned, which is which is ridiculous.
Ridiculous, ludicrously ludicrous speed. Does that didn't you read something, though, that said that the Santa Claus rally is not going to be as big as normal this year? No. I look, there's a the probability is the Santa Claus rally is not going to be as like as high as like the 4% return in December that generally is because of all the November.
Yeah, the post election thing. I remember talking to you about this. So the reason I broke this up into total returns versus like returns is so that you can see like the just power of the dividends in the high yield investing that we're doing.
Like it's it's seriously over 10%. I mean, even even the 16% gain like that's really, really good, even though the market's probably outperforming that. But with the dividends in, that's amazing because you're building share quantity here.
That's fantastic. Hurrah me. So where did I mess up? Well, obviously, I could never predicted that Kennedy would team up with Trump.
I mean, the odds of that happening were like zero. Kennedy, part of a lifelong Democratic family. And we weren't even sure Trump was going to win completely either.
So like, I don't know how you predict that that far out. So the health that the health care and pharma stocks that are down, like I said, they dropped a lot since Kennedy was nominated. But even with that crazy drop, if you invested equally across the health care, you're up about 5%.
So that's not terrible. It's better than a loss. And I do like I mentioned before, I thought the rate cuts would actually make the rates that I recommended perform much better.
I'm pretty sure that those same ones, like three of those four are going to carry over into 2025 with my predictions. I think a lot of times 10 predictions are usually they take longer to come to fruition. So the fact that he's reevaluated and we're kind of still at the same spot, that just means that they're either depressed for other extenuating circumstances or like people are too excited about other exciting sectors.
So what did I get right? Well, utilities. Awesome. Bonds.
Awesome. AI. Just ridiculously awesome.
Utilities. Ridiculously awesome. Bitcoin.
Awesome. The tech stocks. Awesome.
And I really like we actually have a whole year's worth of data here. So you can actually see I know we bring up YieldMax a lot. We do that a lot because people are interested in  YieldMax  a lot.
So if you invested in the  YieldMax  is when I suggest recommended them, you're sitting on ridiculous gains for a, quote, risky investment that nobody should be in. Uh, and if what you do, like if you follow our strategy, I have the chart here. So if you bought it January 1st, for example, NVDY would be 2253.
You've collected 1844 in dividends. You've almost collected your purchase price in dividends that if you just set it aside and use the cash, you've basically paid off your initial investment and you got seed money to invest in other stuff. Whereas APLY and MSFO, they've only paid like four and six dollars respectively in dividends.
So you're still waiting a little while for those. But like if you follow what we say about the  YieldMax , you're sitting sitting pretty. And yeah, what was I talking about before I got sidetracked? OK.
I still think the inflation is about six to eight months away from where they want it to be. I'm pretty sure they're actually going to revise the 2 percent goal to be between 2 and 2.5 percent. Just just a hunch.
Even though they're still actually over that. Yeah. So they're going to do two more.
When they started cutting the rates, the stock market took off. So that was spot on. I have that five million in cash money that everybody said, well, once that the people are not going to come back to the market because the treasury yields are so high.
That's I always thought that was horseshit. They did. They came back.
Market exploded. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. You know, the 2023 laggers did come roaring back and the market wasn't so reliant on a handful of stocks this year. That's why instead of like a 12 to 15 percent gain, you're at like 20, like the S&P, the Dow's up 17, S&P is 24, the Nasdaq's 24 and the small caps Russell's up 15.
So if you average it out, you get about 20 percent. That's why it's not like 12 to 15 percent. It's a 20 percent range because there's so many other companies enjoying in the party as it as opposed to 2023 when it was like 12.
So our gain was 26. So what do we do? Like from from January 1st to the current, the Vanguard, which is the conservative retirement portfolio, is up 14 percent and the riskier van life portfolio is up 17 percent. So we're not doing as well as the 20 percent.
Like we're a little bit below that, but we're well ahead of where I thought we'd be when I said six to 10. So we're actually doing quite well. I mean, if I were matching the growth like that's fantastic for a dividend portfolio.
So like everything was good. I did really well. Now, I guess the whole process is I have to repeat it for 2025.
And that is actually going to be challenging. I think this is a more challenging one to try to predict. I think it's going to be easier, actually.
Oh, OK. But that's actually going to come out the one. It's going to be one of the next few episodes before the end of the year.
It's going to come out. Yeah, it's going to be, I think, three weeks from now. We're kind of adjusting which ones we're doing when.
So it just depends how long it takes him to actually get it done. Because next week I'm going to do like the the last quarters of dividends for the two portfolios. That'll be the next couple podcasts.
You can see how much we're actually making in our income, basically. And what we've done with the income is kind of fascinating. We're making so much money that I'm starting to actually just like put it into other shit now.
You mean like sketchy stuff? No, like stuff you've been like, oh, I've been wanting to try that. Like I've mentioned like so many times previously, like I do not go in casino mode. I do a weekly email where one of the key components, well, I guess one of the core components of the weekly emails, I have a top 10 chart of the stocks that's going next next week.
And when I do the research, I'm like, well, that one looks promising. That one looks interesting. So now I'm getting like all this cash back from all the different dividends.
I start putting into the things that I find when I'm doing the research for you all. And I'm starting to grow positions in like probably five things that I never thought I would be in. But that's how he's finding these things.
So it's like it's really awesome that we actually have cash available to buy into some of this stuff now. That's why I always say you should have bullet shares so that like something comes along. Like, for example, if you had like $5,000 in bullet shares and you saw that Intel was trading like $8,000, $10,000, $15,000 or something like that, yeah, obviously put half your bullet shares in Intel.
Even if the dividends only like 3% now since they cut it in half or by 60%, I forget what it was. It's just a buy. Wait, they brought it back? I thought they went to zero.
No, it's near zero. Oh, wow. But that's how we did with the projections for 2024.
I hope you guys listened and made a shit ton of money because you could have, again, ridiculous. Yeah, ridiculous. Almost 27% gain in an income portfolio is just crazy.
That's insane. We didn't even make that because we weren't in all those, right? Yeah, we didn't. Or we weren't equally distributed across all those anyway.
It's just insane. That's just insane. If you made 27% by listening to me, I would love to hear from you.
Like, please, send an email because that's the whole point of everything that we're doing is so that you all can take all my research paid and free and hours I put into it and actually make a shit ton of money. If you made 27%, rock on. Right? Share that.
Share that. Help other people do the same. That's the whole point of this because Tim is super mad about the emails he was going through this morning that are like, hey, I'm going to give you this ticker.
Then you read through the whole thing and they're like, buy my subscription to get the ticker. That's my biggest pet peeve with most of the financial or investing stuff is they do that shit where they try to rope you in by saying, hey, I'll give you the stock ticker to like the number one AI stock for 2025. You're like, oh, that sounds interesting.
I'll read it. And you go in there and they're like, then it goes to a stupid video where they sit there and babble for 45 minutes and they never tell you. And they never even tell it to you.
They never tell you shit. And they're like, well, if you buy my subscription risk-free, money back guaranteed, you get the ticker we're talking about. It's like, why didn't you say that on the email? Right? Like it is so misleading.
So that's why the whole purpose of everything that we've done in this is I give you everything for free so that you can make a bunch of money. I refuse to be one of those people. That withholds tickers. Hey we made 27% on an income portfolio in 2024 from our predictions in 2023 and this is the one stock that did it all. You open it up and you're like oh that sounds kick ass. BTdubs hahaha sign up for our paid membership to see the whole portfolio. I tricked ya. Tricky bastards. We will never do that cuz it's just wrong. So irritating. Definitely. That's that. Next week is uh, we're going to go over the last quarter of dividends for the Vanguard retirement account. That'll be interesting so you can see exactly how much that account's bringing in every quarter. Exactly. So those will be fun. See you guys. Hope you enjoyed this. See you next week.