084 - Our Biggest Stock Screw Ups In 2024 That Cost Us Tons Of Money

It’s that time of year when we like to review all of our stock decisions to see what we messed up on. 

And trust me, we had some doozies this year. Wait until you hear these numbers.

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There are 2 reasons we review our trades. 

#1 It keeps us from becoming arrogant little buttholes. Staying humble keeps you from making huge mistakes and losing it all.

#2 It forces us to learn things we might not have been able to otherwise. The more you know about something, the more you realize how much you still need to improve.

And with investing, things are always changing so we need to continue to make sure that our process is locked down to reach and keep our goals. 

Sharing these screw ups let’s you know we’re no different than you. Beating yourself up over mistakes just causes anxiety. And laughter is the best medicine. 

So now let's cover the 9 woopsiedaisies that left us reeling this year so you can laugh with us, or at us, or both.

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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

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Transcript

Welcome to Roaming Returns, a podcast about generating a passive income through investing so that you don't have to wait till retirement to live your passions. It's that time of year when we like to review all of our stock decisions to see what we messed up on. And trust me, we have some doozies this year.
Wait until you hear these numbers. There are two reasons we do this. One, it keeps us from becoming arrogant little buttholes.
Staying humble keeps you from making huge mistakes and losing it all. Number two, it forces us to learn things we might not have been able to otherwise. The more you know about something, the more you realize how much you still need to improve.
And with investing, things are always changing. So we need to continue to make sure that our process is locked down to reach and keep our goals. Sharing these screw ups lets you know we're no different than you.
Beating yourself up over mistakes just causes anxiety and laughter is the best medicine. So now let's cover the nine whoopsie daisies that left us reeling this year so you can laugh with us or at us or both. OK, if we sound bad, it's because we both got the vid.
Mainly Tim. So that's that's a so he might be a little extra grumpy today. That's a that's a fun topic, I think, although it might be a little painful for you.
That's the thing that we got for Christmas. Apparently the family got together and that's what they gave to everybody. Merry Christmas, people.
Merry Christmas. And I have the Grinch hat on because that's me. If you recall, we were going to be talking about the twenty twenty four whoopsie daisies.
There's a couple. For the most part, though, twenty twenty four is pretty good. I mean, I lost a little bit of money here and there, but like most of the whoopsie daisies are actually I sold too early, but we'll get into it.
That's always fun. And that's one of the huge reasons. And I will say this yet again, that growth stocks are super hard for us.
And I'm pretty sure anybody who's been done different kinds of investing has very similar issues because it's like you that I don't even think it's greed all the time. I mean, sometimes it's like the you for you get wrapped up in the whole thing. But for us and for Tim, using the metrics, it like doesn't make sense, right? Like it doesn't jive with what you're seeing from the data perspective.
I like to take profits when I can. And that's a good rule of thumb. Sometimes I take profits too early and sometimes I don't.
Some people tell you to sell incrementally as you go up as opposed to going all out because this is like my favorite podcast and email of the year is the one where I address everything you screwed up, what I did wrong. Like my I call it my stellar calls. But what's cool about it is like you can analyze the situations and then figure out what the heck actually might have happened so that you can improve going forwards because the whole goal of like your your failures is to like try to improve going forward.
It's OK to fail, but it's not OK to fail on the exact same thing over and over and over again because you're not learning a lesson. So failures are fine. I like them.
They're good for learning. They're also hilarious if you can look back and laugh at like you can laugh at yourself. I can laugh at myself.
I have that that that gift that a lot of people don't. Yeah. And as I say, if you can't laugh at yourself, you suck.
So I am also one of the depreciating humor. So but yeah, we did we did some did some some bangers this year. The first one was zero Fox.
I don't even like I don't even know if it has a ticker anymore. I literally didn't even know this thing existed. Tim does a lot of these trades like these are growth stocks mainly.
Most of these were in the IRA, the retirement, the tax recount. So we have a very small portion of funds in. I have a Roth open and I think I had Tim open a Roth.
And these are the whole point of doing the Roth is to if you do hit like the next Amazon type deal, you're basically never going to get taxed on any of those gains. So it's like a super, super huge. So we do have, like, for example, Palantir's in both of our Roth accounts.
Yeah. And I got Palantir at like twelve dollars in my Roth. So it's like what's it at now? Eighty two or seventy nine or something like that.
I think it was like almost eighty five. And then it dropped a little bit on Friday. So it's up a lot.
It's like a hundreds of percent. So that's pretty, pretty sweet. But zero Fox was a cybersecurity company and I was really big on cybersecurity at the beginning of the year.
And I think that's going to be a niche to look at going forward because we're going to have all this data from AI and that you're going to need companies to secure it. So people's personal information is not being spread or stole or whatever. I looked at the chart on this one and in twenty twenty two, it was around ten dollars and then it dropped in twenty twenty three like everything else did in twenty twenty three, like in August.
And it bottomed out. So I picked it up thinking, OK, I'll hold this one for a couple of years. We'll get back up to ten dollars.
The problem was someone else, this company called Have Have a Lie, they had the same thought process I did and they bought it up. So like it became a private company in the beginning part of twenty twenty four. And I was only able to go from ninety.
I bought it for ninety one cents in January and a mandatory mandatory sale of a dollar fourteen because when it went private, it said we'll give you a dollar fourteen per share. So do you know the ticker of that is was will still come up even if it's not a thing anymore? It might. I don't know.
So my plan was to ride that all the way back up to ten dollars and it got derailed by a private private acquisition. So that I mean, it's not a huge whoopsie daisy because we still made. Yeah, that's a profit.
Twenty percent, but it could have made like thousands of percent. Yeah, it's not even coming up in Yahoo Finance anymore. So so that was the first of a few errors that I came across in twenty twenty four.
Errors. So what'd you learn from that? Are you going to do that at the end? I didn't learn anything from that. Just like so there were no red flags, like nothing you could have predicted anything.
I think what a lot of times happens whenever you buy like they're they're called penny stocks. They're under five, as you're aware of. If you buy a penny stock, there's there's always the possibility that it'll go to zero.
Mm hmm. And there's always the possibility that it will pop off for like hundreds of percent gains. And then there's a third possibility that it'll be bought up by a company.
So that's just part of penny stabbing in that that area of the market. So what I changed anything. No, I mean, not really.
So it's just like a probability and odds game. Yeah. I believe that cybersecurity is a huge portion of the market that needs to be invested in for potential gains.
And so I found a company that was undervalued by like nine hundred percent. So I'm curious to know your thoughts on this. One of the big reasons I really like crypto and like the tech underlying crypto is because it should actually get rid of the need for the individual security companies.
So I wonder if that may be why zero foxes like niche needs to be incorporated or bought up by somebody who had like a better vision of like integrating crypto and like cyber tech cybersecurity. Possibly. I don't I don't know.
OK. I didn't specify. Tim's not functional right now.
I didn't specify why they bought it out. So that's that one. That one was bad.
But the next one is super, super duper bad. Ticker is NBY. I'm going to pop this up.
It's a pharmaceutical company that I know the Bay Pharma, I thought would be really well. And I'm just going to end up holding it. What frame? I bought it six dollars and eight cents.
I think probably this is gonna be a 10 year. You look over here, you see how well it was doing. Do you want your pen? And then I got it at like six dollars when it was way down here.
But this is like hundreds, like thousands of dollars. Was that a thousand dollars? Is it? Wow. So, yeah, I got it down here at six dollars and it fell off the face of the earth.
That's a five year chart. If that was literally trading that hard before. Wow.
What happened to that? As a pharmaceutical company, if you have like stuff in the pipeline that doesn't pan out, you get punished really bad. And I had a couple of things that had in the pipeline that it was going to do clinical trials for. And the clinical trials, trials either were canceled or they were negative or failures.
And when that happens with the pharmaceutical company, they shoot down a lot. Like it's the same, same, same side of the coin, though, is if the pharmaceutical, like the trials in a pharmaceutical company show significant statistically significant results, they will pop up like hundreds of percent. So this one is this company research, manufactures and sells products for eye care and wound care.
So like I thought wound care, because there's so much war in the world and I care because everybody's eyes are getting worse and worse and worse. My coke bottle. So that that seems like a good area to have a pharma company.
But apparently not. Like I said, it had a had a clinical trial that came up poor. But the ironic part, if you will, is like the quarter for earnings in twenty twenty three showed a 60 like me here.
OK, why about it? Q4 earnings in twenty twenty three showed a 67 percent growth year over year in sales. Plus they signed a new contract with Avnova. And I was like, oh, OK.
So they have they have good, good earnings and they just signed a new contract. But then the earnings in Q1 were negative. Forty six dollars a share.
Q2 was a negative at 30, negative one dollar and thirty seven cents a share. And Q3 was negative. Thirty three cents a share.
And then in Q4 of twenty twenty four was negative. Eleven cents a share. However, if you were thinking about taking a couple hundred dollar flyer and something, I think this is one now that's based on recent revenue reports, earnings reports, momentum and chart action.
And I really think this is actually a one that you could probably make 100, 200 percent on pretty quick. Did you sell it? No, I still have. I wrote this one the whole way down from six.
I got it at six dollars and eight cents and it's currently at 58 cents. So I wrote I wrote this pitch the whole way down. But I do believe that this one will be one to look at if you want to invest in a penny stock.
Well, I would also say that I think pharma stocks in general are really hard unless they're like established big ones like Pfizer and Bristol Myers Squibb. They're very volatile, very volatile, kind of like crypto. The problem with those is like, again, it's all based on the clinical trials.
So that was a huge what the hell was I thinking moment because that dropped. Had I known about this, I would have definitely questioned like 80 some percent. So.
But the good news is it can't go much lower. And I only have two hundred, three hundred dollars in it. But it's still a really, really bad one.
I bought it in one on one fifteen. So the third whoopsie daisy in the retirement portfolio for her mom, we bought April 16th. We bought UHT, which is a health care REIT.
We bought it for thirty three dollars and eighty five cents. Now, health care rates, if you've read the email and listen to the predict predictions for 2025 and beyond, health care rates are going to be huge going forward because the boomers need medicine and places to live and whatnot. So we got over here because I saw, oh, it's going down, going down, going down.
So I bought it right the day before, right before bottomed out. And then it started going up. I was like, oh, I'm such a smarty pants.
I'm so awesome. Right. So I got all this gain right here and I was like, oh, it's not it's tapped out.
I mean, it went up like eight percent gain. I bought it for thirty three eighty five. I sold it for thirty six.
Fifty three. I got eight percent gain. And I thought, oh, this is this not going to be able to go.
That's a that's a lot of gain for a pretty popular company right away. So I said, oh, this won't go up any further. And as you can see, I fucked up because it went up a whole hell of a lot more.
This I missed all this. Now, granted, it's turned around and it's like lower than what I sold it for. But I missed all this gain here just by premature sell it.
So what that came out to be is I actually missed out on thirty two percent more gains because it peaked at forty seven thirty. So it peaked at forty seven thirty, which is thirty two percent extra, extra gain. And I don't know why it went down.
I really don't unless I mean, that was what I was going to ask. Do you have any idea what happened? Bad news, bad earnings or something like that. But it went down a lot.
This one is a dividend, I think. Champion, 20, achiever, 20 some years of dividend growth. And it's going to be quite good for the future, because like I said, the old people getting older, it's going to more people in homes is going to drive up more revenue.
And I, I can foresee this one actually getting back, testing this hundred dollar range that was over here. That's what I was my initial plan was. But then it went up so quick, so fast.
I was like, oh, I learned from previous experiences that when it goes up like 10 percent within like a couple of weeks, you probably want to get out. But then I messed up because it obviously just kept going, going forever. But this is what we keep saying, like we are not very good at I don't again.
I don't really do a lot of the trading or like the gross stock stuff. But Tim is just it's so hard to predict the investor sentiment because it's all over the place. Yeah, I missed out.
That's a lot of gain right there. That's that's bad. That's not even.
Yeah. But how much money did you actually put in this? Not very much. A couple thousand.
Oh, you did put a couple thousand. Yeah. All right.
That's why I was I was actually going to in your mom's retirement account. I was actually going to replace the medical properties with UHT because you had better financials. So I put money into it and I was like, oh, I made a lot of money.
So I'll sell it. And then I missed out on this. So which one's better? Like which one did you end up making more on? Because I know medical properties dropped its face off.
Oh, this one I made. I made money in this one was MPW. We lost.
We lost money. Lost a lot of my own. But I would like this one here is probably one to look for.
Look for in. I mean, this chart here is kind of troublesome. So like if you can determine when it's going to bottom out.
I think this one's good for the future. Although I do think we should caveat. We mentioned in last week's episode that the Santa Claus rally.
Tim was not bullish like usually everybody else's. Because I keep getting emails about how the Santa Claus rally is in full effect and you should invest to get more to partake in the Santa Claus rally. But I don't.
They're smoking crack. They're literally manipulating the the standard definition of what the Santa Claus rally actually is to make it look like it's going up or they're predicting something, something. But the Santa Claus rally doesn't actually end until what did you say? The second trading day in January, second trading day of January and the last five trading days of December.
So they don't even have. We're not even at the end of the trading day thing or the trading week for them to even lock in their fucking values. But it's gone down.
Like I think if you look over here, you see the markets drop their faces off. Yeah, they've been really, really down. And we think that is because there was such a rally after Trump's like was was deemed the like there was a lot of investor positive sentiment after Trump was elected.
But then people are actually starting to look at the potential policies that are going to come into effect. And they're like, oh, shit, maybe that's not a good thing. So there is like if you pulled a few.
I mean, where's the S&P chart? SPY? Yeah. This is not boding well for a continued rally. This to me says it's probably going to end up down here somewhere before it turns around.
But the whole year. Yeah, the whole year has been ridiculous, ridiculously good. But the last part, like this is the Santa Claus rally here.
This that's not a rally. That's like a sell off a cliff. So we're trying to climb back out of the hole type deal.
Yeah, so that's what that looks like to me. But I'm not I'm not I'm not bullish on the next like seven to 15 trading days. I think it's going to be lots of volatility and lots of tax loss harvesting, lots of down days with some occasional up days.
But that's that the so I messed up on you. I missed out on 32 percent of additional profits. I probably would have got 25 percent and I would have sold out.
So I missed out like it. Realistically, it's very difficult to sell at the top. Oh, very hard.
Very. So I probably would have sold like around here somewhere. So I missed out like 25 percent gang because I would have sold around here and it would have popped up and I've been like, God, I suck.
But I did miss all this nonsense. So that's that's that's positive. OK, that's number three.
Number four is ARKY. I am not a big Kathy Woods fan. And if you're not familiar, the ARK stuff, this this this ARK, she is like the main person that deals with all the ARK ETFs and ARK investing.
I'm not a big Kathy Wood fan. I do. I do follow her, though, because there's so many people that follow her investing strategy that you can get a a view of how the general public is going to invest.
So you can get ideas like. So you actually use her as kind of like I don't market indicator. I don't general populace.
I don't use her like I do. Jim Cramer and Jim Cramer says anything. I do the exact opposite.
Kathy would sometimes sometimes has good ideas. Like she's been high on Bitcoin forever. So she does have like redeeming qualities.
But like her investing is kind of kind of caca. I think they did a thing in 2023, like basically trying to calculate her returns. And like, she's not real good.
She doesn't have a real successful track record. She's not real good. But I so I bought this in one twelve.
I bought this like pretty much one of the first things I did in the New Year's. I bought this right right here. That this tip, oh, this tip.
So I bought it at thirty to forty and I held all the way through May 7th. That's a pretty good little climb. So May 7th, I sold it at thirty seven seventy five.
So I made 17 percent. It's about where it's at right now. But the problem here was I missed this as I held it through the peak.
Yeah. So it peaked over here at like forty nine. About and I held it through the peak and I held it through all this down here.
And I was like, look at that up. Like, how could you guess that that like would just keep going? So I said, oh, it's consolidating. But like the reason I sold it, you see, it was consolidating, but it was doing the lower highs, lower lows type of consolidation.
I was like, oh, this isn't good. So I'm going to get out. Well, I still have a profit.
I mean, so I did miss this up here. But this is like if you remember Bitcoin have like right here, that was the Bitcoin having April 24th. So this was all the euphoria going into the Bitcoin having.
Yeah. OK. Because you see, it's kind of like Trump's presidency.
He got elected and there was that massive thing of euphoria that we had. And then like when you look right here, Trump got elected and then cryptocurrencies all took off. But now they're starting to consolidate with lower, lower highs, lower lows.
I think crypto is going to go down a little bit before it goes back up in 2025. So we missed all this, all this down. But I missed this up here and I missed this up here by selling right here.
So that was a bad thing. I missed potentially about 34 percent more gains. And again, realistically, it would have been about 20 to 25 percent where I said, OK, I have I have enough.
I still am a big believer in this Bitcoin Ethereum Ethereum strategy, but I think there are better ETFs out there that aren't ran by Cathie Wood. And isn't there a yield max for ARK? There is a I think there is, right? There's a wide bit, which is Bitcoin. And then there's a ETH, which is an Ethereum ETF.
I'm not talking about like a crypto one. I'm talking like there's an actual Cathie Wood's yield max, right? I think it's based on ARK. Yeah, they do have a they have a Cathie Wood yield max.
I don't we don't get in. I have never been in it. But I just wanted to FYI that one.
I never considered getting into it. Because when you could get actual Bitcoin. She didn't sell here.
She kept adding position to this. So like she she did well up to here. And then she kept adding position, adding position, every dip, every dip.
You like buy the dip crap that people always say. Well, there comes a point when that's not a good strategy because most let's be real here. Most people, if they were, oh, I wrote it up to this and I'm buying the dips.
At some point, they're going to be like, oh, my God, this just keeps going down and down and down. So they probably will sell like in this area. And that's what it takes off every time.
And so they sell. So they wrote this. So they wasted more money by buying the dip, reinvesting on their dividends or every time there's a dip, they put more money into it.
And then they freak out like right here. This is that psychology of investing. Yeah.
And they miss this up here. But had they done nothing, they actually would have been up over here without reinvesting and buying the dips. So there is like there is some logic to the buying the dip thing.
But that's only like if it's a you don't have the emotional. I would not do that. Personally, I'd say like if it's a dividend grower like, say, Verizon or a Chevron or a Coke or something like that, buying the dips makes sense because you're going to make more money in the long run.
Now, I do see this actually shattering this in 2025, it's going to go well above this 49. It's going to be probably in the 60 some dollar range. So like you could pick up.
I believe this is going to keep going down. It's probably going to go down to 30. Are you getting back in it? Thirty.
No, no. That's all you have to say. Thirty three dollar range.
But then it's probably going to shoot up to the 60 to 70 dollar range. So you could actually double your money if you wanted to in this one. But I've I messed up in this one by selling too late.
Like the last one I sold too early. This one I sold too late and I missed all of this here. So this is a bad, bad, bad time.
I suck. Next one. I suck.
Next one is CRSH. I'm not too upset about this. Whoopsie daisy, because this literally is a experiment I'm running with  YieldMax .
YieldMax, if you're aware, they have a Tesla one, TSLY, which is a Tesla long. Our  YieldMax  is a Tesla long, TSLY, which is a long. And then they have a short, which is a CRSH.
So I bought equal money. I put equal money into the TSLY and I put equal money into the CRSH. The problem with this one is I bought this here at ten eighteen.
So right at this peak here, right before the election, when Trump and Elon Musk, his BFF, got together and decided crypto is going to be amazing for 2025. Like if you look like you see, you see what this has done since I bought it. It literally has just shit the bed.
If you go into TSLY and we'll do the pull the same chart up, you'll see that what happened again, October 18th around here. It's like the exact bottom down. And it just shot up.
This is just the TSLY. This isn't even the Tesla one. But like so when this goes up, CRSH, CRSH is going to go down.
This is going down. CRSH should go up. That's why I got that.
I want to see my theory that I posited is if you held equal money in TSLY and equal money in CRSH, which is the short, you can cancel out the gains and losses and just collect the dividend. And for the most part, it's been OK. I mean, I'll go into the details.
I think we should have it for a full year at some point just to have the full data. But as of right now, it seems to be pretty. The theory seems to be pretty solid.
As of right now, we have TSLY. We're up one hundred ninety two in TSLY and we're down two hundred eighty six in CRSH. So we're down about one hundred dollars total.
But we've collected one hundred and twenty six, one hundred twenty seven dollars in dividends. So in theory, holding both and just collecting the dividends is actually working. It's like double dipping without moving your money.
But it's only like a 15 percent gain. So I have to like, this is one that I'm going to be following because there are two other potential. Coney, right? The Coney has the fiat, which is the Coinbase short and  YieldMax, and there's the Nvidia dips, the IPS and  YieldMax.
So they actually have the long and short both of Nvidia and the long and short of Coinbase. Coney, I'm not going to buy the fiat until after crypto. What it does in twenty twenty five.
And then I'll probably put just as much money as I have in Coney into fiat and then do the same thing. I'll have plenty of time between now and then when that happens to to monitor this more with the TSLY and the CRSH. If it keeps doing what it's doing, I will totally do that.
And then the Nvidia short, I'll probably look at in twenty twenty seven when the AI bubble is starting to crack. Maybe twenty twenty six, depending on what goes on with that. But like so this was just an experiment to see for those other two where I think I can make a lot more money because their dividends are way better than TSLY and CRSH.
But CRSH, I like literally lost money. Like it literally went straight down from here. I was going to say, if you guys didn't quite if that went over your heads, we'll explain it more later.
But it's basically like to keep the value of your portfolio basically even because the downs and the ups will cancel. But you'll actually be getting payments from both sides, which is actually pretty ingenious. Like high five, Tim.
Another freaking ridiculous innovation move. So that's number five CRSH. Number six of whoopsie daisies is NEM, Newmont Mining.
I mean, Newmont Corporation Gold Mining. Yeah. So yeah, this one I messed up pretty bad on this one as well.
Do tell. OK, on two twenty two there, I bought this. Like you see two twenty twos right here.
So like right before it cracked down here, which isn't a big deal. But I bought it on two twenty two for thirty one dollars and seven cents. You will notice a pattern.
Tim's pretty good at getting it pretty close to the bottom. It's just the outs at the up. Then I sold it on five twenty eight.
Another example. So I sold it right here. Yeah.
Yeah. At forty one forty six. I made thirty three percent.
That's really good. But if you notice, I missed all this this run up again. It peaked right over here at like fifty nine dollar range.
So I missed out on fifty six percent more potential profit. And then again, it crapped. It crapped out.
Like there's like a theme here, like everything that I got out of ran up. But then it crapped out. But this is a bad one.
And the reason why I sold, I literally have no, let me read my notes. Let me read my notes. I'm not entirely sure why I did that.
I thought it was tapped out after its thirty three percent gain. There was nothing in the quarter one and quarter two earnings that would suggest there was more room to run. Profit margins were down.
The revenue was up, but very slightly. The debt was down very slightly. And the free their actual free cash flow was reducing.
But then everybody got all gold happy. And it was just this literally had nothing to do with funding this. All this has to do with the euphoria people have with gold because the fundamentals haven't changed.
Like there's another revenue still sucks. The profit margins still suck. Free cash flow is still still falling.
Well, honestly, I don't know that I'd be super upset about missing out if you're sticking to the metrics because you cannot predict investor erraticness. So that's just one of those things. The ironic part here is, OK, so there was earnings.
The best earnings of twenty twenty four for Newmont. And it crashed. We're a prelude to this.
That's hilarious. So what is wrong with people? This is why we stopped doing the trading based on the earnings reports because or trying to predict before, because like that would that makes no sense. That should have gone up from there.
But it was already obviously this actually is a buy based on their earnings and everything's like the earnings here sucked. Earnings here sucked. Earnings here sucked.
Earnings here are really good. But then like, oh, so my question, though, is do you think gold is actually going to be a positive trend in the near future? I don't think it's going to be compared to other sectors like Bitcoin, crypto type deal. So it's one of those things where I think gold will max out like three thousand in the next couple of years.
It's currently like twenty seven hundred twenty six something. So it doesn't really have that much room to run compared to some like the AI sector, the tech sector. And I think the reason that it's as popular as it is is because we have a lot of people that are brainwashed or in that mentality that gold is the end all be all, you hold your value during high inflation and high debt and everything.
So I think that the younger people are starting to see that. Bitcoin is actually the same thing as gold. And it's so much less cumbersome. Without the hassle.
Yep. So there is like this, there is a huge conflicting things, button heads right now. You have the boomers saying gold, silver, and you have millennials saying Bitcoin, Ethereum, and they're button heads.
And as more boomers exit the market, whether it's by death or retirement or whatever, this, the Bitcoin, Ethereum is actually going to overtake the gold and silver. Yeah. Because I imagine the demand for gold is going to go down.
So at some point in the next couple of years, you're going to see a lot of the boomers start to exit the market. And then the market's going to be dictated by the younger generation. The younger generation is AI and Bitcoin, Ethereum.
Yep. Definitely. I think gold maybe hits 3000, and then it'll like consolidate in a downward motion.
Whereas I think Bitcoin is going to hit. They're saying anywhere between 150,000 to a million in this next run. Like it's crazy.
Crazy. Bitcoin could hit 250 before it does the same thing gold does. 250,000.
Crazy. I don't know. That's why we kind of like, we have a little bit in gold and silver and her crypto.
Retirement IRA. Don't ask. It's a really odd thing that's available there.
And we have a little bit of gold, silver in her mother's retirement, but we probably have 30 to 40% more Bitcoin than gold. That's just reading a macro trend. Like we discussed the macro trends multiple times.
All the time. The macro trend here is okay. Gold still has a potential to be a good store of value, but that's only until the people that see it as a store of value are in the market.
Once they exit the market, you have to pivot to what the new people think is a store of value. That's what I was going to say. So if this is like a growth stock or a long-term hold type deal, that would only really work if the macro economic.
And what Tim is saying with the old people exiting the market, like that actually is more of a red flag. So this isn't one, even though this dip is quote unquote, the buy, I wouldn't get into this. This is a buy.
This is a buy for 12 to 18 months. I do for like up until about 20. Are you getting back in it? If it goes down to say like 1900, I might consider that we do have a capital issue.
1900. But like I, there's too many opportunities. The problem that most people that want to get into Bitcoin are actually dealing with right now is Bitcoin's at 100,000 and gold's at like 2600.
So it's easier to get into gold. True. True that.
But there's going to come a point when people are going to say, oh, Bitcoin's at 170,000. But I know it's going to go up to like a million. So that's a, you know, a no brainer, eight X or something like that.
So I'm $300 from the 2700. And there's a few articles out there. Even if you only have a 0.01 or 0.02 of Bitcoin, that's still going to be enough for your portfolio.
So that's just something to look at down the road. It's coming. It's coming quicker than I think people anticipated, where Bitcoin actually replaces gold in a lot of people's portfolios.
Yeah. Especially with Trump coming into presidency. He basically wants to have a Bitcoin reserve.
Okay. So number seven is the same old, same old. Same old, same old.
The ones we discuss all the time. Camping World, CWH, ICON, IEP. Hey, let's look at this.
Which one are you going first? Medical Property. I do Camping World, CWH. Okay.
We've held this one throughout the whole year. Should I do more than the one year? Just do five year. I was going to say, because this one we can talk.
We've had this for a while. We got in. It's the gift that keeps giving.
Got in Camping World over here somewhere. Mm-hmm. And then there was earnings here saying, hey, we're buying more.
We're buying everything as much as possible. We've converted to a growth stock. And we're cutting the dividend to 80%.
So we got it right about here. And ever since then, it's literally gone down. And I mean, do you see that it's consolidating, but it's still consolidating in a downward trajectory? I don't know.
That doesn't have lower lows towards the more recent stuff. It's starting to tighten over here. So that's good.
Yeah. But you see this? It's a downward trajectory. But this one here is just one that we've been in.
And I think if I didn't believe in the company and what the company does, I would have exited this a long time ago. But if you look at the other yield, only 2%. So this isn't even like at this point, this is no longer a dividend stock.
This is literally just a growth stock. Because again, old people are getting older. And what old people want to do, why they still have the chance is to travel.
And if they travel, they're going to rent RVs, buy RVs. Whatever. So this one, I think at some point... It should at least hit back up to where it was.
...will pass this. Yeah. And I do believe I see the potential for this to be like a $100 stock at some point.
But this one just keeps on giving. Look at that, just keeps on. We got it.
Remember, we got it here. So this is a multi... But this is a prime example of like when you have a growth stock and it is bouncing... Multi-year, whoopsie daisy. It is bouncing back and forth in those tiny windows.
You're never actually gaining any more value. You're never gaining any more value if it's just sitting in a band. Whereas if you were getting a dividend, you would literally be making money during that whole transition.
So with dividends reinvested, we're still down about 20% in Camping World. So this one's just been what it has been. Although that number is not terrible compared to the next two.
Medical Properties... MPWs. ...is the second one of the three that we've held forever. Well, that chart doesn't look that bad.
We got Medical Properties over here in the... It was like a little bit under 10. So maybe right here is where we got it. Tim thought it would rebound.
Well, I thought, look at all this. Yeah, I know. Look at all this.
But it just kept going down. Now it's starting to consolidate in this area here again, but it's still not great. They did fix their tenant problems that they were having.
So I think they finally got their issues under control. Yeah, the tenant that was giving them problems, they basically got rid of them and they've either sold those hospitals to a private company or they've sold it to... or they rented it to another person. So they made a lot of sales on some hospitals to improve their balance sheet.
And they've started renting out the properties that caused them to lose money out to other hospitals, businesses? What the hell are they? I don't know. Conglomerates? So this one's gonna shoot up at some point. This is another one that I pretty much confident because you see the more... like the reason why we stay in this one is they make too much money.
A lot. Like a lot. That's like 800 million.
That's 1.5 billion. That's 1.5 billion. That's 1.2 billion.
So those are the end of the years. That's a lot. They make a lot of money to be trading at $3 a share.
Yeah. Their problem is... See how this turned around or not turned around. This actually got a lot worse.
That's their EPS earnings per share. How'd it get worse if it... This is 20... It went backwards negative again. Yeah, this is 20... So it was looking pretty good.
So that's why we got into it. I was like, oh, everything's... Everything's pointing towards a recovery and then it just like fell off a cliff. But so this... Dang tenants.
This one here is going to be probably a five-year hold maybe. See the debt actually is really high still. That's... The hell is that? That's 10 billion.
But aren't they a company that manages debt? Or they take on tenants and stuff? They take on tenants. So like this is like... That's part of their business. If you look at that's 10 billion in debt versus their own... Their revenue was like 1 billion.
So they're down like... They have a 90% debt overhang. That's killing them right now. But that should turn around.
It should be more like in the next year or two. It should be like in the eight to eight and a half. But yeah, this is one that just... We've like really just sucked it.
But their dividend was still pretty high and paying fairly good. So we kind of just have wrote it down. You see the dividend is still pretty good, 8%.
So we wrote it down. And eventually when this thing does turn around, like our price point is going to pop off, I assume. Yeah.
Because we've been accumulating so many shares. This one's not terrible. We're down 40% in medical property.
And that's with dividend reinvesting, right? Dividend reinvesting. So this is... But again, way, way, way, way, way more share accumulation because of that low price point. No, the next one is the one that sucks.
This one here. I don't know what the hell they got going on. This one is like... This is the one that we actually sold.
We sold in her mom's retirement and we sold half of our position in it. It looked like, I mean... I think you need to go to five. Yeah.
It was doing pretty good here. Looks great. We got it.
Absolutely great. We got it back here. We've held this one since 2021.
We got it in this area here where it went down a little bit. I was like, oh, sweet dip. I bought the dip.
But then the dip started getting lower and lower and then bam. That's a pretty... Look at that cliff drop. Look at that volume spike in that cliff drop.
This here, if you remember, there was a short seller said, hey, this company's fucked. And the company's like, no, we're good. Apparently, they weren't.
Well, they were. It actually got thrown out in court, didn't it? Although he did expose a couple of things that were a little sketchy. Like the fact that Icahn was shorting a bull market.
Like, what are you doing? So you see the yield here is still really good, 22%. But the stock price is just, just wow. So if we didn't have any back history in this, we would be buying this up left and right.
I would be now. Yeah. Because the revenue, like again, it makes too much money to be trading that low.
That's a lot. 11 point, what is this? Millions? That's 10.2 billion so far this year. That was 11.8 billion that year.
Cry cry pants. That's a lot of freaking money. The problem with them is that just they suck.
Like, I don't know what they're doing. Because like you look, the total debt's not that bad. They make more than they have in debt.
The net debt's not terrible. I wonder if Carl Icahn is grooming his replacement and his replacement doesn't have the same vision. Cash flow is not terrible.
Cash flow is not great, but it's not terrible. Or if there's a potential that he's getting senile in his older age. Do you remember the reason that I finally said, all right, I've had enough of this shit was because they said we're going to cut the dividend again, which I fully, I said that numerous times.
They're going to cut the dividend in half again to 50 cents. So I fully expected the dividend cut. It was so they could buy up more shares of another company that had, that was in a bad situation where they actually weren't improving the quality of the Icahn stock.
They were just using the money that they saved from paying out a dividend to invest in another company. That's it's a company they invested in. I do believe is CVI.
That's the one. So they cut their dividend so they could buy more shares in this company because they had this drop and they said, well, that's undervalued. So we're going to use the money from the dividend that we're cutting to invest in this company.
And this company, if you look at it, it's had, it's not great. It's no reason to fuck all your people have been with the Icahn. But yeah, that one Icahn, we're down with dividends reinvested.
We're down 70% in Icahn. So we have a pretty big hit. And that's the one that we decided to sell off too.
It was a multifaceted thing because one, he was mad too. We were like, screw it. We're going to harvest a tax loss for tax purposes.
Offset a lot of our gains. Yeah, we did that. But yeah, this Icahn is the worst of the three.
Camping World, I believe, will actually have a good 2025, 2026. We might actually be up in Camping World by the end of 2026. MPW is probably going to take the 2030 before we're up in that.
Icahn, I don't know. We could be down in this for a decade. This could be like a lost decade of that money.
Unfortunately for us, it's only like two or 3000. So it's not the end of the world. But there's other people that put like thousands upon thousands of dollars in that.
And this is why you don't have all your eggs in one basket. You would lose your butt. And the other reason that we had such a negative experience with Icahn is because we were over allocated in Icahn.
Like we had way too much of our portfolio. There was a time that it was like 10% of our portfolio. Yeah.
And now we have a 5% rule. So that was my bad. Yeah, that was the whoopsie daisy from last year.
But we learned our lesson with that. So that's the whoopsie daisy that keeps on giving. That's probably going to be on next year's whoopsie daisies.
And probably going to be on the year after that whoopsie daisy. But the next two for 2024 whoopsie daisies were ginormous. Like these are serious.
Wow. Yeah. Serious, serious losers.
First one is Calm. It was, I remember talking about this. Calm was the egg one we were in where we made a lot of money.
Oh, we have more? Made a lot of money in Calm. It did awesome for us. So awesome.
But then they came out with financials. Their quarter of their. Yeah.
We talked about the egg one because we were like, oh, Calm's amazing. Like what freaking stock has like the lowest beta ever? Yeah, it has like no volatility. It's like no volatility.
This thing is. So the first thing that Calm did in 2024 is they reported their quarter to earnings. So we bought it over here and we wrote it up for all this.
And then we sold it at 55-ish, 56. We sold it like right here. What did we buy it at? I don't have that.
But I know we made a lot of money on it. I think we bought it down here. Which is about what? Forty six dollars.
Forty. And you got out at like 55-ish. Forty four and we got out at 55.
So that was like worth a lot. We were like it was a really good gain. It was like.
For like no beta stock. Yeah. Like a low, low, low beta.
So it was like a 25% gain. And I got out of it. For something that does something super boring that literally all they all they do is eggs.
Awesome. And then right here, the very first thing they did, you see this down right here. They reported their quarter to earnings where they said, oh, our earnings sucked.
That was working to get out. We're going to cut our dividend. So they had an earnings miss on one three, a 58% EPS miss.
And they had the revenue was really down. Their cash flow is really down. And they cut their dividend to 11 cents a share.
So I was like, well, that's 58% EPS cut. So I was like, oh, that's that's not good. Okay.
So you stuck to the metrics like you literally implemented your strategy on this one. So who could have seen that it like ran? Then quarter three earnings. They smashed their quarter three earnings.
And their quarter four earnings were over here somewhere. I don't have the earnings things on here, but they basically they just smashed their earnings for quarter three and quarter four and their quarter one. So I go right here is where they have like their first quarter for 2025.
They smashed it there. Revenue was up 51%. Net income was up 880%.
Debt and that was paid down to zero. And they paid out 279 in dividends per share throughout the year. So the price when I sold over here at 55, it went from 55 all the way up.
To what is that? 110. That's crazy. I think the highest I think the high of the year was 114 and 114 was the high.
So I missed out on a plethora of upsies on that one. Upsies. So that's like an additional 44% gain plus the 279.
I will say I didn't even wasn't even aware that you sold this one for the longest time. So I kind of I'm hoping that because we weren't really like super vocal about selling this, that if anybody that's listening stayed in it, they got this game. I'm hoping.
Yeah, that was like, yeah, that was a huge. Gosh, a huge whoopsie daisy. Huge.
And they have. But there was nothing to indicate that was there? I'm saying I went from the earnings report where they cut the dividend down to 11 cents and the EPS was down, cash was down, debt was up. I was like, oh, that's not good.
So what's the dividend doing now? Is it still like cut? Oh, it was 12 cents. My bad. And then I did $1 and then it's 77 and $1 too.
But if you look at where we were at when we were collecting dividends, we were like that was a warning sign. I was like, OK, one cent dividend. So but then we got these dividends here.
Well, the two twenty one is insane. Two points. So I know that it's a variable dividend.
So it bounces around. But the fact it went to it, it had a penny and then it only went up to 12 cents. I was like, holy crap.
So that's very bad. And like that. And both these earnings reports were not really great.
So this here, it's quarterly, too. I have no idea how they turned it around. Still don't know.
Interesting. I think it's just basically because eggs went up in price under the with the inflation and everything. Oh, maybe, maybe, maybe.
Because this is comparable. Because my question, when that last report came out with a huge dividend, did you consider getting back into it? No. At that point, it was too late.
It was too late. This is comparable here. Three penny and 13 cents.
So maybe that's what it does. It'll just keep going. So this will be like $2 and then 250 or something like that.
This one's one to watch if you think the price of eggs is something to get in. But like this, I mean, it might be too late to even consider. Like maybe here you could have got into it.
But like up here. That's why I was asking, because that's where you said that third quarter where it basically turned its stuff around. Like, but I don't know if you would have had this on your watch list still if you had moved on at that point.
That was why I was kind of wondering about that. So let's look at that. We had a 44% gain, missed and calm.
We had a 56% gain, missed in Newmont. We had a 34% gain, missed an arc and a 32% missed in UHT. So those all seem like, oh, that would be the worst.
That's no, no. Is this the last one? And here's the friggin. This one.
Coup de gras, man. If you listen to the podcast for a while, you remember how I talk about Iron Mountain. I was in Iron Mountain at a time and I went, I made like 40 or 50% Iron Mountain.
I got out of last year's Iron Mountain just proceeded to go from like $30 up to $100. Yeah, that's like a 200. Iron Mountain looks pretty good right now.
You mean not so bad? Not so bad. OK, Rocket Lab. Just wait, wait for the numbers, guys.
I bought this on two five. So right here after this dip, I was like, I'm going to get into it. I got it at $2.93 around.
I don't know how I got out there when it says $4, but I got $2.93. I sold it on $6.18. At $5.01, I was like, oh, I got 71% on this company that has like no fundamentals, like everything sucks about it. I was like, I'm the hot shit. I made like almost 100% on this.
Yeah. Look at that chart. Oh my God.
It took off. It took off from that $5 whatever point up to like $27. Yeah, I missed all this.
That is in freaking sane. So that's 700% gain for those of you that want to laugh. I missed out.
I actually had a stock that went up. Retarded. 700%.
And I sold it for a 71% or actually almost 780%. I sold it for a 71% gain. And there's nothing in this that would lead me to believe that any of that was possible.
This is one of the reasons. Operating income. Is it still kind of crap now? Yeah.
Oh. EPS. Did this happen to get like an Elon Musk tweet or something? Like what happened? Well, you just have to know what it is.
Rockets, obviously. It's a space. Space exploration.
Yeah. That's why I asked if Elon had made like tweets because you know how he does that like. I'm making money.
Push the money button. One year return of $382. Jesus Christ.
$392 a year today. Yeah, I completely fucked the pooch on this one. This is.
Yeah, but there was really nothing to indicate that, right? But we will say that we've been in different cryptos and all sorts of stuff. And when you're not sure about stuff, it kind of is. That's why we flipped over to that policy of get your initial investment back and then let it ride just to see what happens because you're at no risk at that point.
So at the time I bought it, it was a little known space company. All I knew about it was that it provided everything from launch services to rockets and everything in between, like the hardware and the software in between. It's a momentum stock because earnings are negative.
Revenue is low. Debt is what it is. I wonder if this is going to crash as hard as it went up.
888 percent. Wow. Yeah, this is my worst of all time.
But you're saying none of the metrics even say that it should be where it's at, right? The lesson to learn from this. So you don't take your initial investment out and let it run. Take your initial investment out.
But you have to know macro trends. But I didn't like wasn't paying attention to the rocket thing. You see right here, like when Trump and Musk came around, it just like took off, went crazy.
It like more than doubled. But it was creeping up before the macro trend of space exploration is a huge thing that I thought wasn't as big as it was. So that is how if you remember from the 2025 predictions where I said Starlink is going to be like one of the biggest things ever.
Yeah. Because this company that has crappy fundamentals with crappy finances did this. Can you imagine what Starlink, which is making a billion dollars a quarter will do? And I was going to say, when you're in a bubble like that, like you see with the AI bubble, it's kind of like a dotcom bubble.
Anything that had a dotcom literally just went up just because it was part of that like thing. NFTs went through that whole thing. Crypto kind of went through that whole thing.
Like Dogecoin has zero fundamentals. That thing shot off there for like the longest time. There was some like Elon Musk pumping.
But I think space exploration is going to be another like interesting little bubble where anything that has to do with that, even if they are crappy fundamentals, this is a prime example of what happens. That's why you just take off. People don't want to do the research.
They're just like, what are you looking at? Oh STM, that's what it is. So that's why we invested in this one. It has super, its fundamentals are better.
And look, it went down. So you're like, so you know what it's capable of. But it has better fundamentals than Rocket Lab did.
But I think you guys are going to be listening to this like the day before New Year's. And I believe there's like rumors in the underground that Elon Musk is going to announce the IPO for Starlink, which should make this stock pop off. ASTM, ASTM.
What was that other one? That one pop off. ASTM, yeah. And maybe even Rocket Lab pop off more.
Or maybe Rocket Lab will crash because Elon Musk is launching the other thing. I have no idea. ASTS, space mobile.
Yeah, that's what it is. ASTS. OK.
So STM and ASTS, this one. That's definitely going into a consolidation period if you look at the tail end of that. Yeah.
Those two are the ones like we mentioned it before. I do believe those are huge. Like those are put them in your IRA for like a couple of years to see what happens.
Well, you're Roth if you're going to do Roth for that. Because that way you can at least pull your initial investment out without tax. Whatever.
So don't be a Tim and have a Rocket Lab. Yeah, don't be a Tim and have a Rocket Lab. So if you put, say, $1,000 into this one, once you get like, say, $2,000, pull your $1,000 out and let the $1,000 do what it's going to do.
I think that depends on the time frame. And that depends on what the macro trends are currently doing. If people are still like euphoric and stupid.
It's going to be years. No, that's what I'm saying. It's going to be a longer time frame.
But you can pull out later because then you still have a lot more money. Because Starlink IPO is going to change the world. It's just going to take a couple of years to change the world.
Yeah, I agree. So I was just reading an article about Verizon that has a Verizon I'll probably hold on to for two or three more years because it has like it's a good dividend growth. But at some point, I'm going to have to actually take the money out of Verizon because Starlink is going to make a Verizon obsolete.
What do you do with Santa? Santa's like bottoms up, bitches. Yeah, so that's the whoopsies for 2020. And like I said, like two of them, NBY and CRSH, I'm down in.
But CRSH, I'm not worried about because it's an experiment. So I only put a couple hundred dollars. Yeah, that one, that one's just for.
But the rest of them, like we actually made a decent amount of money. But I sold too early. So and then you have the three disasters.
The lesson to learn is take your initial out so that you can let your winners run. So I'm going to been trying to do a better job of that like the last. And it's the same theory that we have with the Yield Max.
You take your initial investment out through the dividend thing and you just let that thing become a cash cow. Gross stocks are different. You get your initial investment out and then you just see where it goes from there.
Anything above and beyond that's complete profit. And if it goes to zero, then you got your initial out and your risks completely off the table. But that's how people win the crypto game and the growth stock game and find the next animal, Amazon.
It's a numbers game. You have to invest in a whole bunch of different stuff to get one that runs and actually makes up for the losses of everything else. But that's why we prefer dividend investing because that's a lot harder to do.
And it's harder to know when to get out. So we do a little bit of that just because we're in such an interesting economic climate right now where tech, AI, space travel, like the Starlink stuff. So it's like there are certain things we kind of can't pass up on, but we're not putting like incredible amount of money into this stuff.
It's like $200, $300. The two we put a lot of money into are FEPI and AIPI. Because they actually own, that's actually another way to do this.
AIPI, if you remember me saying, I still think that because I just got the dividends for that and it actually is a lot more than FEPI. So like the FEPI dividend was $1.08 and the AIPI was $1.49. To put that in perspective, I think FEPI's yield was 36% or was that AIPI's? They're both in the 30 to 40% range. That's a really good yield.
But the cool part about that is AIPI is in the AI sector, which means you get a whole bunch of different AI stocks. So if the fund is doing it for you, you don't have to go out and pick the individual ones yourself. That's the really nice part about those.
So that one is one that I actually think everybody that is investing for income should be in for the next couple of years. Yeah. So that's how you get growth and income at the same time.
You go find funds in the macro sectors and that's, let the other stuff. And what I do is I don't actually reinvest all the dividends. I'll actually pour some of the hundreds of dollars into, did we mention THTA? Nope, not yet.
We need to wrap up. What I do with the cash is I invest it in bullet shares or things like bullet shares. And then when I see a growth stock potential, I'll just put a couple hundred dollars into it.
That way I'm actually not out any money because I'm actually using my dividend money to invest in flyers. It's like it goes to zero. I only lose a couple hundred dollars, but it's not money I put into the account.
So it doesn't matter. Yep, exactly. For the most part.
Because we haven't added to our account in years at this point. It's just all dividend reinvestment. So next week, I'll actually, we'll discuss THTA next week.
That looks pretty banging. And then we'll do, I think the Comfort Zone. Comfort Zones.
Yeah. We're doing Comfort Zones next week because that's going to be a big thing that's going to segue into goal setting. And I'm not doing it for New Year's because most people give up their New Year's resolutions by the second and third week of January.
So I want people to go through the growing pain and be like, oh, you're right, let's redo this. So I'm going to do it different than what everybody else does. Yeah.
So Comfort Zones. Happy New Year. Watch for the starling.
IPO launch. Shuck. That's... Haha, I suck.
Okay, I have to go cry myself to sleep. I'm going to go pout in the corner. Fetal position.
I'll be back next week. See you guys.