104 - 10 Ugly Stocks in Our Portfolio — Here’s What the Metrics Say

Are your portfolio losers actually hidden gems—or ticking time bombs? In this episode, we break down the 10 biggest losing stocks in our portfolio to determine if they’re value plays or just value traps.

We dig into:
✔️ Dividend Yield
✔️ Revenue Growth
✔️ Net Profit Margin
✔️ EPS & P/E Ratios
✔️ Analyst Price Targets
✔️ Growth Forecasts

You’ll hear our verdict on each stock—green light to buy (or DRIP), red light to hold off, and if any are bad enough to sell.

Stocks Analyzed:
CIVI, OGN, IIPR, TRMD, SKWS, UPS, PEP, ABR, KRP, RWAY

🔥 Whether you’re trying to decide what to buy next, what to DRIP, or what to drop—this episode is your full value map.

Want FREE weekly market updates, Tim's top 10 dividend picks, and our portfolio updates delivered right to your inbox? Subscribe to our email list.

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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

Episode music was created using Loudly.

Transcript

Welcome to roaming returns a podcast about generating a passive income with dividend stocks so you can secure your finances and liberate your life. 

The market’s bleeding and you’re staring at your portfolio wondering—‘Should I double down or pull the plug?’ 

In this episode, we dig into our 10 biggest losers year to date and break down which ones are flashing a green light to buy more shares or waving big ol’ red flags. We’re talking yields, profit margins, earnings, value metrics, and expert targets. 

Five are solid greens, four are hard reds, and one is a toss-up. If you're wondering if there’s anything you can do with your portfolio, this episode will give you the clarity you’ve been waiting for.

All right, so we are back for an awesome episode of, what the hell are we talking about today? At the end of last week, I came up with a brilliant idea, and then I got sick and I forgot about the brilliant idea. But then I remembered during my coma, I had a brilliant idea. I basically went through the retirement portfolio and the van life portfolio, and I picked out the 10 worst performing stocks of 2025 so far.
And I'm just going to work, at the current moment, based on the metrics and the financials and things like that. And if they're worth buying, then if you haven't picked them up, it might be a good time to pick them up. If you have them, cool.
And the ones that aren't worth buying, if you have them, I'm sorry. Well, you can just do what we do, turn the drip off and put them into the other ones, right? Yeah. Yeah.
But there's like... Because we own all of these, right? Yep, every one of these we own. And I've had to deal with the ass kicking that they've instilled upon me. Well, most people's stuff is super down this year.
So you might as well dump money into the good ones, especially the ones that are undervalued. And that's what he's been doing. So now that I know what the heck we're actually talking about today, since he never tells me anything before we jump on here.
That's what the red light, green light's for back here. Some are going to be a green light and some are going to be a red light. One of these lights.
Yes. Okay. The first one is Civi, C-I-V-I.
We do like this one a lot. It is a midstream oil play. I like it.
So the current price of Civi is $27.66. It is super low because if you go and you find where people expect this one to be by the end of 2026, it's around $45. Oh, damn. So at $27.66, that's a steal for the 45.
So I imagine we're dumping tons of money into this one. So when I have extra stuff, yeah. Then we have a year to date, it is down 39.7% from January 1st to the 8th.
It's literally went straight down. Should I pull these up? You can if you want, but... You sound like Dookie butt, Dookie, but Yahoo financing. Caught a cold in the middle of spring.
What happened, if anyone cares, is we went to her parents' house. Oh, my God. And I guess the entire house is just covered in germs.
And I ingested some germs and I got sick. All right. So we got the Civi chart up here.
Look at this. This is a five-year window. It was like booming its face off up until like 2023, September-ish.
And then it's been like on the downturn. Look at this cliff drop. Yeah.
It hasn't been performing quite exceptionally well. But it is what it is. Yeah.
But like that, look at that. If that goes back up here to $85-ish, hashtag winning. You said it's supposed to be at like $40-something? Yeah.
That is about this resistance point, huh? Yeah. I believe... Oh, so yeah. If it breaks that, then it'll probably shoot up.
I believe $50 is a good time to consider selling this if you buy it now. If you've had it and you've just been going the whole way down, then you're gonna have to wait until it goes back up to where you got it from. But I mean, it yields... Where's my notes? I don't know.
The dividend is... It's a variable dividend, but the base dividend is $0.50. So sometimes they'll drop a special like $1 or $2 or whatever. But if you just do the $0.50 dividend, it gives you an 11% yield. So that's actually pretty good for a stock that you're getting like 100% growth in.
So you're getting... Did you say this is an oil play? Yes. Midstream. So very nice.
When you pull up there, I went into all these companies, nine of the 10, I was able to get their last earnings report, which was their first earnings of 2025. The only one I was unable to do that with was the last one. It reports on the 13th.
So I had to... Don't give it away. What? I don't know. Whatever that stock is at the end.
Okay. The last one I was unable to actually... But for the first nine, I went into their earnings report and I looked through. And this is where I got all this important data.
Like the year over year revenue for Civi declined from 2023 through 2024. It declined by 10.2%, which is not ideal. You don't like to see the revenue drop by that much year over year.
Oh, that was a revenue drop. The net profit margin is still... Even with the revenue drop, the net profit margin is still almost 17%. It's at 16.74%. And in their last earnings report, the EPS for quarter one of 2025 was $1.77 per share.
So that more than covers a 50 cent dividend. So that's pretty nice. Yeah.
I was going to say that covers the dividends. The price to book, if you don't remember, the price to book is in anything below one is pretty good. That means it's trading at below its book value.
Anything above one is trading above its book value. And this is at 38 cents. So yeah, it's at 0.38. So that's really undervalued.
Its payout ratio for the 50 cent dividend is only 45%. It's also a good number. Which is really good.
The price to earnings, the current... I mean, the last quarter's price to earnings was 3.14. The forward projected for the next quarter is 4.79. The oil and gas areas, generally between 18 and 26. So it's really, really undervalued compared to its peers. Doesn't that mean because most people do gas in the summertime? Is that why that's a four going up? No, that's because the price of oil, because OPEC is at war with America.
America's generating so much oil. And OPEC's like... Normally what happens is OPEC controls the oil. That's all the Middle Eastern countries.
And they control oil. And when they want to raise revenue, they just lower their production. So there's less out there.
Less supply and demand. But because America's generating so much oil, OPEC just says, okay, well, fuck it. We're just going to keep producing oil The current volume that we're creating, and it's driven the price of oils, went from like $80 a barrel down to like 55.
So the fact that the last quarter, I think it was $67 was the average for the three month period for the price of oil. And the fact that they had EPS of 177 at $67 per barrel is quite nice. That means I'm assuming their break even point would be like in the 35 to 37 range.
So $35 or just $37 per barrel of oil. So as long as it stays above that 35 to 37 range. And like last I looked, it was at 61, but that was not during Friday.
I just looked earlier tonight. It was at up to 61. So $61 per barrel is pretty good.
If you go into Yahoo Finance, you can find the target price for all the analysts that cover Civi. They said it should be 45. There's the highest estimates in the 50s, the lowest estimates in the low 40s.
So they just met in the middle at 45. And the growth estimates for 2026 come out to be 8%. So they're expecting this one to grow its revenue by around 8% over the next 12 months.
So Civi is a green light. Green. Green.
Very nice. The second one, that's the second piece of shit for the year is OGN. This one's super depressing.
What made these make the list? The droppage? I just went to the worst are the ones that were performing. Year-to-date worst? Yeah. So this one, the last one was negative 39%.
This one is negative 41. OGN, if you're not familiar with OGN, it's the female pharmaceutical company. They make a bunch of medicines and supplements.
And this one's on the shit list and we actually got rid of it, didn't we? Yep. I have a sell order. Oh, so it hasn't actually hit yet? It hasn't hit yet, but it will in the next week.
This one fell off a cliff. What happened with this one, this one was trading along pretty nice. If you go into Yahoo Finance, or wherever you have that chart, type in OGN, you'll see that it was going along pretty nice and then it fell off a fucking cliff.
Yeah, look at that thingy-jig right there. We'll go back to the five-year. Why do I want to go there? Just because.
You see, it was trading in a nice area right here around $20. Yeah, it's very nice. And then it fell off a cliff.
What happened is they literally, I went through their last earnings report and they literally don't give a shit about their shareholders anymore. Yeah, so if you were on the email, you would have seen Tim's basic rant about why they are- They were paying $0.28 a quarter in a dividend, which was nice, and they cut that down to $0.02 a dividend for literally zero reason. We'll go through the numbers of everything in the earnings reports and their financials.
Look at that. They're just like, oh yeah, we're hanging out at like 20, 15, and it just goes eight. So it had like a 50% drop.
So the shit part about this one is there was a time when we were up like almost 170% and we ended up at like 5% now because they fucked around. But anyway, it's currently at $8.71 and a year today it's down 41.6% since January 1st. The dividend that they announced in their last earnings was $0.02. They cut it from $0.28 down to $0.02, meaning their yield is now 1%.
That is worse than freaking Camping World's massive cut. But they at least did it for a decent reason. Then I dug into the actual earnings.
Their year-over-year revenue only went down 6.7%, so that's not terrible. They had a lot of cash on hand, so they actually were able to eat that if they needed to. A net profit margin even at the reduced revenue level was still 11.92%. And the earnings per share in quarter one was $0.33, which covered their $0.28 dividend.
But again, they decided to cut it down to two. Well, you said in the email how they basically... So they're trying to deleverage their financial situation, except their earnings don't justify it. They even came out and said the tariffs are going to have minimal impact on their revenue because only 25% of their business has direct exposure and 75% doesn't.
So they literally just shit all over their shareholders. But the weird part is, yeah, they're saying that most of their business isn't even gonna be impacted by the tariffs, but then they go and make a massively drastic cautionary move. That doesn't line up.
So either A, they're lying, or they're a bunch of panicking scaredy pants. And either way, do you really want to be invested in a company that's a bunch of scaredy pants and liars? If you look at the rest of the numbers, there's a lot of things to like about them. Sure.
I don't like contradiction. Like I said, the earnings per share in quarter one was 33%, but $0.33 per share, that covered their dividend at 28%, but they cut it down to two. So that's really ridiculous.
Their price to book is 1.04. So they're trading at about their book value. So I guess that did lower their book value from about two down to one when they took that massive drop that you saw on the chart there. Their payout ratio at the current two cent unknown.
So the payout ratio that I found was at the 28, 28 and 28. So what is that? 56, 66, 76, 84 plus two is 86. So 86% was 39.4%. So if you actually extrapolate that out, their payout ratio for the two cent, however long they hold that for, is damn near like 10%.
It's ridiculously low. Their price to earnings. Now this one's crazy because if you go into the pharmaceutical as a whole sector, their price to earnings are generally in the 30s to 40s range.
So the fact that OGN has a 3.02 last quarter price to earnings and 2.29 forward quarter price to earnings, that's ridiculously low. The analysts covering it all like the whole cutting the dividend by like 98%. So the target price is $17.
So you could double your money if you bought in right now. And the growth estimates for 2026 are still 7.26%. But like everything in this says, hey, you could have kept the dividend at where it was. Yeah, that's the problem.
So the fact that they just said, fuck you guys. We're going to do this means this one's a sell. It's a red light.
Red light. If you're in it, get out of it. Take your loss.
It's just like it's not worth holding on to this one for a 1% payout. You can get 1% like just leaving your money in your brokerage account. What's your option price? Limit price.
What's your limit price? 10. You think it's going to hit that? Yeah. All right.
Because people are like, all the experts are like, oh, that's nice. That's nice. That's nice.
You better have it at just under 10. And you see a lot of the algorithm trading. You can see it like because like once it drops, once it hits a certain price, they pick it up.
So like people think like the floor is like at probably 860 ish. I would have it at like 996. No, I'm going to get it at 10.
You're not supposed to do round numbers because that's what everybody else does. Too much competition. Third one.
I do like this one. It's one of my faves. It's IIPR.
Speaking of the marijuana, if you're on video right now, you'd be seeing me sniff. It smells like a pot in here. I'm thinking it's coming in the window from some vagrants outside.
Do you smell it? Oh, you're clogged. Nevermind. I don't smell shit.
It's either that or fermenting food, which I don't know what that would even be. You know, if you're not familiar with IIPR, where IIPR differs from a lot of other reaches, they totally specialize just in the cannabis industry. Which is kind of cool.
So when you're driving down the road and you pass a strip mall and there's a CBD store, there's probably at least a 50-50 possibility that IIPR actually owns that building and they're collecting rent from it. So they are a real estate trust, but they specialize in cannabis. Which is kind of cool.
And their current price is $54.61. I know when I got... Her mom's had this in the retirement account for a year and a half to the year and three quarters. We're talking about like $130 price range. It was at like $120.
And then one of their biggest tenants had a financial problem. So the stock got just punished and it is... Kind of like MPW, right? I guess. A year to date, it's down 12.3%. So it's not near as bad as those first two.
Yeah, but... But their dividend, they've held steady and it's $1.90, which is awesome. It's been growing gradually since we've held it for almost two years. Back in the day, it was like 160... I want to say 164, 168.
And it's up to 190 now. It's current yield is 13.92. But if you look at where the yield was historically, the yield was like between six and 7%. So 13s, almost 14s are crazy.
So like this should be above $100. But it's gonna take a while to get back there, so. 54, but still you can get that price appreciation plus that high dividend that you lock in at that lower price.
Hell yeah. Okay, so when you're dealing with REITs, remember we... Green light. We talked about REITs previously because I got yelled at by some people saying I didn't know what the hell I was talking about.
REITs use the adjusted... AFFO. Funds from operation. There's the AFFO, which is adjusted.
That actually includes like a depreciation and all that crap. And then you have the FFO, which is the funds from operation, which actually doesn't have like the depreciation of the buildings and whatnot. So when you're doing real estate trust, you can find the AFFO number.
That's what you want to look at. From 2024 to 2025, or like the last year over year, whatever, so we're in the first quarter. So from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024, and then the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, the AFFO went down by 12%.
But even like this one, this one here makes a lot of money. So their net profit margin is still 52.4%, which is outstanding. That means they can take a lot of problems with their finances and their metrics and whatnot, and still afford their dividend because the 52% profit margin is pretty sick.
Their AFFO for quarter one, which is the REITs equivalent of EPS, earnings per share for normal stocks, was 194. So that actually still covers their dividend and leaves them 4 cents to play with. Is okay-ish.
I'd like to see that be a little bit higher, like 212, 215, so that they can afford their $1.90 dividend and plus have some money left over to do some other things with, but $1.94 still does cover the $1.90 dividend. Price to book on this one is 0.79, which is again, below one is undervalued. But even if they cut the dividend a little bit, I mean, the yield is double what it was before.
Because that's where it should be trading. Yeah, I understand. You have like, certain stocks will have like a 13% yield that just don't deserve it.
It should be like 6% or 7%. And they're just like beaten down, undervalued, whatever. And there's other stocks that have a 13% or 14% that deserve it because they're a really shitty company.
And so their stock deserves to fall from say like $18 down to $4. And that'll bring their yield up to 13%. This is one that is super, this one's super undervalued in my opinion.
Yes. Payout ratio is 136.24%. I mean, what that means is like, remember I said the AFFO of $1.94 is really close to $1.90. Well, actually after you take out everything and the taxes and all the other fees that they're gonna pay, whatever's left over, that they're paying 136% of their profits in yields. So that number's a little high.
So there's a red flag there. But it's still not abnormal for the sector. For REITs, REITs are generally above 100.
Yeah, they're generally like 100 to 120%. So it's just a little bit high. The price to earnings for this, which isn't like a really crystal clear metric for REITs, but it's still nice to know.
Like you look it up just to see like, okay, for the last quarter, it was 9.88. For the forward looking, it's 12.77. So that means that it's going to go, like their earnings are gonna increase a little bit just based on that number. They should. Target price is 67 by the, there's eight analysts that cover IIPR.
So eight of them, their average target price is 67. What's your target? 108, 112. What they do is they don't go, they don't say, hey, the stock's worth 108 to 112.
They say by the end of the next 12 months, it'll hit $67 at some point in that 12 month period. I didn't realize that's how that works. The growth estimates for this one is a negative 0.32. So they don't expect any growth from this one, but they, again, as a REIT, they shouldn't have that much growth.
They literally just own the buildings and they rent the buildings out. They might raise their rent up a little bit and they might refinance some debt at a lower interest rate. If the interest rates go down, that might affect that growth estimate number a little bit.
But this one is actually, if you can get into this one, if you can afford the $54 per share, which I know that's pretty high. We got some higher ones down the list, but that's pretty high for a stock, but it's a really undervalued good $54 stock. And because all that stuff is local, they're not shipping it in, you're not gonna have the tariff crap that's going on.
I would think this one would be pretty impervious to the political economic shitstorm that's happening. Plus, if people are depressed and spazzed out, they go to sin stocks or sin companies. Just saying.
It depends on what the legislation is for marijuana. The tariff won't affect IIPR. Is Trump pro or for? He doesn't care really.
Doesn't care? Then I don't even think it matters. There's a lot of Republicans that think marijuana's the devil. The devil.
So it all depends on the policy for legalization. I mean, I'm not gonna lie. It smells terrible.
But you can tell where I, everyone thinks to know where I stand. But I mean, if you wanna do it, do it. I don't care.
Yeah, I don't care either. I don't do it. I don't like it.
I don't like the smell of it, but whatever. I think it's a pretty plant. Do what you wanna do.
Do what you wanna do. The fourth one is TRMD. It is a shipping company that transports oil.
This one I got from the Dividend Hunter. If you've listened to the podcast long enough, you know that I actually subscribed for a lifetime membership to the Dividend Hunter. I like the premise because they all agree with what I agree.
You can retire with income from your investments without actually touching your principal. And that's super important. And not enough people do that.
So I like his process. But there's some of his stocks I don't like. But this is one that we agree on.
I like it. It's a shipping stock. So the dividend's a variable dividend.
It's sometimes 40 cents, sometimes 20 cents, sometimes $2. Oh, wow. Those are some big swings.
But anyway, the current price of this one is $1649. And year-to-date, it's lost. It's down 12.1%. So it's down.
It's not doing great. The dividend is 40. The next dividend that they declared is 40 cents.
Is that what that yield number's off of? There's no way. 40 cents? 24%? 40 cents? How the hell do they calculate that? Did you just back calculate? If it was 40 cents for the four quarter, no, they take the current quarter that they called out and they go back three quarters. They have four quarters total.
Yeah, okay. So it's back calculated. If you use the 40 going forward, if you do the forward dividend, it would be $1.60. It would be 10%.
But they're using like they paid like a $2 and some dividend a couple quarters back. Yeah, so that's why that yield is like 24%. That's a huge yield on a $16 stock.
Hells yeah. But most shipping stocks have like a 18% to 25% yield. There's some that have like a 12% or 15% yield.
But most shipping stocks have... What they do is they take like... Are they going to be affected by the tariff crap? Didn't you say that there's going to be empty shelves and stuff? There's empty ships, but like transporting oil is different than transporting like good. Oh, it's TRMD? It's oil transportation. Cool.
So like she brought up a good point. Like when you're doing your yield, you want to use the current... Like what I do for people that I talk to and I help out is I would take the 40 and I would take it up to $1.60 and I would go forward. So it'd be a $1.60 dividend.
If you get a higher dividend, awesome. But you're like the minimum would be $1.60. So $1.60 is four times 40 cents. It would be like a 9.8% yield instead of a 24%.
But you wouldn't do that if it was like a $2 dividend. You wouldn't multiply that by four, would you? But like when you're dealing with variable dividend stocks, like the yield is kind of irrelevant. Yeah.
They have like mathematical formulas. Like they'll say we'll pay out 45% of our profit. Yeah, I think depending... Whatever that is.
And then they'll say they had like $100 million profit after all their fees and everything was paid out. And they would take 45% of that, which would be 45 million. And they would take the 45 million divided by the total number of shares.
And that's how much you would get per share. That's how they do that for the variable ones generally. So then you should be looking at more of like the earnings, the future growth estimates and all that stuff, right? For this one, the reason I got into it is because back in the day... So this one, we've held this one for a while too.
Back in the day, they were actually buying the shares up. That's always good when a company's buying more shares. So they would still pay like the 45% of their profit out in dividends, but they would take some of that extra $50 million and they'd buy some of their shares back.
So they were actually reducing the number of shares out there. Which means it shoots the price up. So the dividend yield was going up because they were buying the shares.
So I like that. That's why I got into this one. But I mean, I like it.
Like we're going to be using shipping companies to transfer oil the rest of my life. So you got to find a good one. I think this is the one.
Their charter earnings year over year, the charter earnings is basically how they calculate on the shipping ones. It's like you could use the revenue, but the charter earnings is actually more specific. That basically like all their boats, every time their boat makes a delivery, they take that and they add it up and they came.
So they have, I think, 80 boats. And 80 boats came out with like 200 and some million dollars in charter earnings. Their charter earnings year over year was down 35.3%. So that's a huge drop in earnings.
So that's a huge red flag. But their net profit margin is still 32% even with that huge drop in their charter earnings. So that's pretty good.
That means if that picks up even the slides, you have to remember back last year, we had a problem with the Red Sea because there's all kinds of hell breaking loose over there. And then there's another war going on here and there. So they actually had to deviate their map.
So they were charging more for a trip because they had to go further, but they were making less trips because it was not safe. So once the geopolitical situations get resolved, they can actually deploy their whole fleet as opposed to only using like 75% of their fleet to deliver stuff. So I expect that earnings will probably go up.
It'll probably be like a 100, I'd say between 70 and 120% increase in the first quarter of 2026, be my guess. Oh, interesting. Good thought process.
Their earnings per share in quarter one was 62%. So their last earnings came out like a couple weeks ago. They made 62 cents per share in earnings that covered the 40 cent dividend by a good amount.
So the payout ratio was, like I said, the payout ratio was under the 45%. It was the 39.31%. And their price to book is 0.75. So it's undervalued. Again, anything under one, undervalued.
Now the problem with shipping stocks is, you see the PE of 3.43. You're like, well, that's low. Like most shipping stocks have an under 10 PE. Really? So like their quarterback PE of 3.43 was low, but their forward-looking 7.04 PE is kind of high.
So the target price by the, there's four analysts to cover TRMD, the target price is 2150. So you're going to get, what is that five, like 30% gain if it hits that price. And they do expect the growth estimates in 20, by 2026 to be 12.59%. So that one is a green light as well.
Green light. I feel like Matthew McConaughey, were you aware of his green lights book? The whole book. And he's like narrating.
He's like, green light. Bear with me. Next one.
I like, but I don't like for people that don't own it. So it's a red light, but I like it. It's us.
It's Skyworks. SWKS. People who don't own it.
If you don't own it, don't buy it. Do explain. Like I imagine it'll come out through the data here.
The data here, it says like, it's not going to go up very much. Do you see the target price is 6938 and they're expecting a negative negative. So yeah.
So the current price of SWKS is $68.21. This one three years ago was like above a hundred. It was like 112, 115 year to date. It's down 23.2%. And the dividend is 70 cents.
Now this dividend was like at 1% back back in the day. So the fact that it's a 4.1% yield is crazy. So from that regard, it's pretty sick to get into it.
Cause you're getting 4% on something that generally has like a 1% yield. So you're getting like four times, four times the yield that you normally would get. But in their last earnings report, their year, their year over year revenue actually declined.
Not a negative 8.9%. So it declined up 9% and their net profit margin is at 10.43%. So they have a little bit of room to go around there, but not a lot. Their EPS in quarter one was $1.24, which is outstanding for a 70 cent dividend. You're like, okay, that's pretty, that's pretty nice.
But then you start getting into some super red flags, like their price to book is 3.5, which means that that's well above one, but it is a tech stock. And generally they're in the 2.75 to like 5.0 range. So it seems like it's about fair valued on the price to book compared to its peers.
Its payout ratio though is 107.8%. And this is a regular stock. So that's, that's pretty high. Yeah, that's high.
And their PE the last quarter was 26.65 and the projected PE going forward is 13.5, which means there's going to be a decline somewhere. There are over 20 analysts that cover this one. Their target price average is 69.38. So like we're talking a dollar more than it is now.
And the growth estimates for 2020 from now through 2026 is negative 15.16%. And that's due to Apple pulling 25% of their revenue that they buy chips from. So you're going to have that ripple effect for the short term. And this one will be affected by the tariffs because the chips are not made in America.
So there'll be 25%. Yikes. Probably, I would imagine probably about 25% tariff on these.
So this one I would... Do you think the price of this one's going to come down more? I think it'll, it'll like vacillate between like where it is now and it'll go down maybe to like 58 and it'll go up to like 73, 74, but it's going to be pretty, pretty much where in that, in that trough there. Until things turn around. Until the tariff situation gets resolved and then Apple's not, until they find someone to replace the Apple revenue, they're losing that 25% from Apple.
That's a huge chunk of their revenue. It is. They're still getting a lot of that.
This one's a red flag. I would avoid this one. Red light.
Bad. Okay. The next one I really like, but I would, again, just the numbers don't say, Hey, go out and get it.
I find it interesting. You actually like this one. And I'll show you why.
Like here, there's two, there's two numbers that make this one. We're talking about UPS. Really like, Oh, I don't know if I should buy UPS.
Brown trucks. Brown trucks. It is a really ugly branding color, but it makes sense.
It's currently $95 and 89 cents. So if you can't afford that, it's fine. You're not missing a lot like, year to date it's down 22.7%. So it's had a rough 2025.
Their last dividend was a dollar or no, their upcoming dividends a dollar 64, which comes out to a 6.84 yield. And this one generally yields in the two to 3% range. That's just how much their prices came down in the last year.
So, so far, so far you're like, okay, well it's so it's a contrarian buy because it's down 23% and its yield is like double what it normally is. So this one seems pretty good. Year over year revenue was increased 1.3%, but you like, that's actually a really good number.
I know it seems small, but it's a really huge number because UPS has like so much revenue every year. And their net profit margin is 6.44% is pretty decent. The word we're like, here's where it starts to get a little bit like where I would avoid it.
Their EPS for the last earnings report that came out last week, I believe, maybe the week before, I don't know, for quarter one was a dollar 40. So their dollar 40 earnings per share cannot cover their dividend of a dollar 64. So they're gonna have to tap into their cash, their free cashflow to pay out their dividend.
I was gonna say question, is this a dividend grower? It is. So they'll probably tap. They're probably gonna take on debt to pay that.
Yeah. Until they figure out something to turn all this around. Interesting.
Their price to book is 10.59, which is ridiculous. I mean, FedExs is, I believe, 6.7 and that's still ridiculous. So they're like, they're ridiculously overvalued compared to their peers from their book value.
What was our buy-in price? 113. Okay. So, and then you have their payout ratio of 95%, which again, that's, if you didn't have the EPS problem or being 24 cents less than their dividend, it wouldn't be a, wouldn't be a huge problem, but because their payout ratio is 95% with only a 6.44% profit margin with a high book value and that EPS being that low, like that's a, those three numbers right there, back to back to back are a huge red flag, huge red flag.
Their price to earnings for the last quarter was 14.0 and their forward projected is 13.64. So just, that's about the same. 30 some analysts cover this and they have an average target price of 116.29. So like a little bit more than what we bought it for. And they are expecting the growth to increase by 14.16% the next year.
So like, there's a lot to like about UPS, but there are just some like glaring red things that I don't know for a 90, you know, a $96 stock. Is it worth the risks for a 7% yield? If you're in it, stay in it, turn your drip on and just accumulate more shares. If you're not in it, I would actually deploy that capital in other places.
There's plenty of other options that are way better. Yeah. I would concur with that.
Number seven of our- The red light. That's a huge red light. Number seven on our list of shit shows for 2025 is Pepsi Cola.
This is another dividend grower. PEP, it's good for a retirement account. If you're using the account for like a retirement, you're just going to have something to hold for 20 years, PEP's a really good one.
Typically when we say dividend growers, those are like the retirement account stocks because they grow over and over and over in that base buy-in price. Like that's your yield locked in. So as the price goes up, like your yield just goes up.
Okay. So Pepsi's currently at $130.44. I know, super high. Like, I'm sorry, but like- I'm sorry.
What we own and what did shitty and this is one of them. What'd you get in this one? This was my mom's, right? And I imagine this wasn't like in our account. Yeah, we got it in like $142.
But what's it usually at? $180, $180, $190. I was going to say, if Tim's getting into these high levels, that means something really dropped off a cliff. So again, dividend grower.
It's down 12.3% in 2025 so far. That's not terrible. It's next reported dividend that it's, I don't forget when it goes ex-div day, but it's $1.42 per share, which equates to a 4.36% yield, which is pretty good.
I think the yield is generally like 2.75 to 3.25. I was going to say most dividend growers around the three, two to three mark. So the fact that you can get into Pepsi at that, the high yield is really good. Year over year revenue, it declined 1.8% the last year, which isn't terrible.
It sounds bad. It had a decline in revenue, but if you just knew the sheer, again, like UPS, Pepsi, it's just the sheer size of it, like a 1.8% decline in revenue is dropping the bucket for these people. Pepsi is everywhere.
It still has a net profit margin of 10.29%, which is really good for a huge company that's no longer in the growth stage. It's kind of in the- Yeah, that's actually really good for a profit margin. Good point.
Kind of in the, hey, we own everything stage. I think Amazon, Amazon's profit margin is eight or 9% and they own the entire world. Earnings per share and their last earnings report, quarter one was $1.48, which covers the $1.42 dividend.
So that's good. It's better than UPS. Price to book, again, super high at 9.84. I'd like this one to be in the five range.
I would imagine that's even high for this sector, right? I believe Coke's an eight. When it comes to Pepsi, I know there's Dr. Pepper and there's Fanta, or not Fanta, Dr. Pepper and 7-Up and places like that. I don't know who owns what.
Literally, it's Pepsi and Coke, PEP and KO are the two big ones. The other ones are just, whatever. So you would compare this one literally to Coke and Coke, I believe, is in the, I think it's 5.8 to six or seven range.
So it's still a little, it's price to book's a little bit lower. I thought you said eight. I think it's 7.8. So this one is actually pretty high price to book.
Price to book, but then because it's like, the reason that these are so high is UPS is 10.59 and Pepsi is 9.84 is because they have millions of shares and billions of dollars each quarter. So people want to be in these stocks, so they don't mind paying well above the book value. It's like the people that buy cars for what they do.
The payout ratio for Pepsi is 79.65, which is actually really, really good for, I think they're a dividend aristocrat. Most of those are like in the 75 to 85% range dividend aristocrats. So it's like in line with all the other ones that have grown their dividend for 50 some years.
Aristocrat's 25. Or king, whatever. King is 50.
Raising their dividend forever. Okay, that makes more sense. Coke's payout ratio, I think is 82% or something like that.
So it's like in line with that. Price to earnings for the last quarter was 19.18 and the forward looking price to earnings is 16.52. So that's about in line with the competitor. So again, it's pretty good.
I forget the number. I think it's 26, but it might be 28 or 36. I forget.
There's a lot of analysts cover it and their projected target price is 151.55. So a little bit of growth and price appreciation, but their growth estimates for the upcoming year is 6.08%, which is crazy huge for a trillion dollar company. It's a green light. Anytime you get a yield for over four in Pepsi or Coke, you want to just start picking up shares whenever you can.
If you can't afford the 130, it's understandable. You don't have to buy it. But if you have the money, this is one that you could totally justify getting at 130 and just letting it grow over the years in your retirement account.
Yeah, buy it. Turn the drip on and let it go. Number eight is one of my favorite stocks, but it's had a horrible year.
Horrible year. Should we bring up the stocks or the thingy on that? They just cut their dividend from 43 cents to 30 cents. Yeah, let's pull up the thing on that.
How much? 43 cents to 30 cents. It's not as bad as OGN, but so it doesn't look as bad in the five year, but that's a heck of a resistance line right there around the $10 mark. Look at that.
Boom, boom, boom, boom. Yeah, this one should be about 14 or $15. Which is the other massive resistance ceiling.
Yeah. Floor, ceiling, whatever. I like Arbor.
I like what they do. I like what they stand for. This is the company that if you get a loan from them, they plant trees, hence the Arbor name.
I do like that aspect. Very nice. But they had just a rough- Terrible earnings.
Well, and didn't you say you were expecting them to have a dividend cut? I did. I said that in the podcast because just the way it was going, a dividend cut was on the horizon, which I don't mind. I know a lot of income investors, when there's a dividend cut, they're like, oh, it's horrible.
It's all circumstantial. Yeah, the metrics. It's actually sometimes a good move on the company's part because you don't want to go into debt.
At the 30, like I said, they cut it from 43 to 30. So at the 30-cent dividend, if you take that out for four quarters, that gives you $1.20. $1.20 gives you 11.58% yield. So you're getting 11% yield.
So before they cut the dividend, it was like 15% yield and they dropped it down to 11.58. So I'm okay with that drop as long as it fixes a lot of the other fucking problems I got going on here. Yeah, exactly. ABR is currently at 10.36 and so far in 2025, it's lost 22.1% of its share price, which is never a good thing.
Yeah, but everything fell off a cliff. This is a mortgage REIT. So again, you have to kind of tweak here.
Normally you're looking for revenue, but in mortgage REITs, if you can find the distributable earnings, which is in their earnings reports. I love when you struggle with big words. Distributable.
Distributable. Say that three times fast. I can't.
Their distributable earnings year over year is down 41%. Their net income year over year is down 47.5%. So they had a really, really bad last 12 months. What happened? They're a mortgage REIT.
So they tied up their debt and it's at a higher interest rate. So until the interest rates are lower, this one's going to have like just... Which did not happen with Powell's last thing, which we expected, even though everybody else is all butthurt. So once the interest rates start dropping a little bit, they'll refinance their debt and their income will actually improve because the loans they have out, what they basically do is they buy a paper and they buy paper and then they finance the paper.
And so people are getting their loans at like seven or 8% and they're paying like 6%. So they'll refinance. ABR will refinance their debt at the lower interest rates.
The lower the rates go down. They'll keep their loans out at the 7% to 8% range. So their financials will improve drastically once there's a wider gap between what they're charging and what they're paying.
All their net profit margin is 18.85%, which is pretty good, even considering all these really crappy numbers. And the problem we have here is the EPS in their last earnings report was 15 cents per share and they're trying to pay a 30 cent dividend, which is not good. That means they're going to have to either take on debt to pay their dividend or they're going to sell properties, or I'm sorry, sell mortgages or they're going to have to do something.
They're going to have to pay off the debt. They're going to tap into their free cashflow, which isn't that high anymore. And once that's exhausted, then they'll actually have to take on more debt.
Price to book though is at 0.68, which is good. Again, below one is undervalued. And their payout ratio is currently at 116%, which is about in a little, it's a little bit elevated compared to other mortgage rates, but they're generally all in the 102 to 108 range, which is a little bit high.
Their price to earnings, the last quarter was 10.88 and their forward looking price earnings is 9.36. There are six analysts that cover Arbor that I could find. Their target price is 1138, so 10% gain. And they do expect a growth estimate gain of 13.64 in the upcoming year.
Once the interest rates start getting dropped, the growth is going to expand and all these numbers will repair themselves. But at the current numbers, I wouldn't buy Arbor. If you're in Arbor, just turn the drip on and just ignore it.
If you're not in it, I would wait until the interest rates are dropped before picking it up. Or you have an inclination that the interest rates will be dropped, then I would start picking up a couple of shares here and there. We're kind of in it to win it.
In it to win it. We have hundreds of shares. Are we doubling down? No.
Or are we just turning, Is there a drip on or off? Drip's on. Drip's on? So that's Arbor. It's, no, don't buy it.
If you want to buy a lower priced one, the next one's really good. It's KRP, which is a small cap oil company. Everybody likes a small cap.
Currently at $13.18 per share, which is a little low. It should be about 16, 17. Anyway, year to date, they're down 16.3%. So they've had a pretty crappy year as well.
It hasn't. Their next dividend, they just had their earnings. Their next dividend is going to be 47 cents per share, which gives you a 12.9% yield on their current share price.
So that's really good. So you're getting a really good, well-ran small cap oil company for a 13% yield. That's a really good combo right there.
Year over year, their revenue actually increased 2.43%, which now in this case, if this was Pepsi, that would be a great number. But because it's a smaller cap one, 2.43% is nothing to get excited about. That should be in the eight to nine.
Because their revenue is actually small. So when you equate it to dollars, it's actually not that much. So you'd like to see this one be like eight to 10% range.
That'd be ideal, but- No dice. It is what it is. Net profit margin on KRP is only 3.58%. And that's because they're not generating enough revenue.
So they have a smaller profit margin. But their EPS in the first quarter, their last earnings was 14 cents. I don't know why they declared a 47 cent dividend.
Because this one's generally another one that's variable-ish. They will change it according to their finances because they are a small cap one. So you're saying that's way higher than it should be compared to the price of the book? Yeah, the dividend shouldn't be 47 cents if they're only making 14 cents a share.
So it's like three times the amount? Yeah. Unless there's some other thing we're not factoring in? Well, there's other numbers, but I'm painting with broad strokes. For most of the data, because you can dig into it.
You see their payout ratio is only 75%. And that's what KRP does. They only pay out a dividend that is 75% of their net income.
So their net income times 0.75 divided by total number of shares gave them a 47 cents per share dividend. So I don't know why their EPS was so low. Huh.
Interesting. The price of the book is 1.82. This one, that's a little bit high. Should be about 1.0 to 1.25. So it's a little bit high, but nothing to be too alarmed with.
I can't find any reliable data for their trailing price to earnings. I had anywhere between 18 and 180. Is that because it's small book? Small cap? Small cap plus people looking at the... They use different numbers.
It's very difficult to find. Generally, if you just type in KRP price to earning ratio, you can go through and find a ballpark figure, but I couldn't do that with this one. So the only thing I was able to actually ascertain was that their forward price to earnings is 23.33, which is a little bit less than their peers is 28 to 32.
Oh, I was going to say, I think that's high, but I stand corrected. Three or four. Three or four what? Three or four around analyst cover KRP and they have a average price of 17.40. So you're getting, what is that for? Like a 25% gain a year.
How would I know how many analysts? I don't pull the numbers. I didn't mention that. KRP is down 16.3% in 2025 thus far.
So I was going to say all these are down. I was going to ask, like what stocks aren't down for the year? I picked up our biggest laggers so far to see if they're worth. I understand that point, but I'm saying like everything's down this year.
Okay. Is Rocket Lab still up? It's doing pretty good. And they have a 2.81% growth estimates increase for 2026.
I just like the 13% yield at the $13 for a bunch of just average numbers. Like obviously this will turn around as the price of oil increases, they'll actually generate more money and the consensus amongst most people that deal with oil futures and oil trading is that the prices will go up. We can't stay at like $55 to $65 per barrel for too long.
At some point OPEC is going to blink or the United States will stop generating or stop producing as much oil. So once the price of oil goes back up to say $70 or $80 range, every one of these numbers will just skyrocket because it's such a small, it's a smallest company. So I like this one.
I would get into this one now at the $13 range and I would just start picking up shares as much as I could because this one should be, like I said, $18 to $19. Which you are doing, correct? Yes. I thought I saw this as one of the big ones you were dumping.
And the last one, the earnings come out 513, so I don't have any current earnings numbers, is RWAY. It's a BDC that is down 13.5% in 2025 thus far. I expect it to probably drop more.
It's currently at $9.12. It'll probably drop down to like $8 after earnings this week. That's a single digits, cool bean. It's dividend is, they've actually said they're paying out a 33 cent dividend in the upcoming quarter, which comes out to a 14.47% yield.
That's pretty nice. So then I just went back and I went to their earnings report before the last one and the year over year between 23 and 24 was a decline of 12% in revenue, but they still have a net profit margin of 51%, 58.89%, so they still have a lot of wiggle room with all that. And their earnings per share in quarter four was 75 cents per share, which plenty to cover their 33% dividend plus anything else they need.
Priced book is 60, 0.66, which is well undervalued and their payout ratio is 95%, but because they're a BDC, you expect it to be 95 to 105%. Priced earnings for the last quarter in 2024 was 476. The forward projection for this first quarter, which we'll get the word on the 13th, what it was was 6.79, which is still like the capital markets is in the 16 to 18 generally range.
So that's undervalued compared to its peers. There are two analysts that cover it and their target price is $11 and 12 cents. So it's 20% undervalued compared to the analysts that cover it.
But the growth estimates for the upcoming year is negative 2.61 because again, this is another one that's dependent on the interest rates coming down before their numbers can completely turn around because it's a BDC, they're lending money out and borrowing money to lend money out. A red flag. This is a wait and see.
Like if you want to, you can get into it. The yellow flag? Yellow. Move your head.
I think there's a weird blue light. If you want to get into it, you can get into it. I'm not going to say don't because it is super cheap.
It's generally like when we got into it, it was like $11. So it's like 11 to $13 is where it's hung out like the last. We do like when they go sideways.
So you're getting a 50, like almost a 15% yield on something that kind of trades sideways. So that's what you want. So that is the 10th one.
So how many do we have green? We had KRP, PEP, TRMD. Five greens, four reds and one yellow. It's a blue light.
Move your head. You're in my way again. I think it's a blue light.
I should probably just look over here. Is it blue? It's out. I think it's supposed to be green.
It's a half green. It is what it is. OK, I lied.
I thought it was a blue light, but apparently it's just a half green light. I have no idea what the next podcast is going to be on. I really don't know.
I haven't had it. Brain fogged. You're on what? How many days now on this cleanse? 22.
So he's on 22. I did 22 on mine. So if you do tomorrow, you beat my thing, but you weren't overdosing like I was.
Yeah, so I'm on 22 days of the Scientology cleanse. I say that because the guy that created Scientology actually created the cleanse, L. Ron Hubbard. But then when I started looking into it, the data.
Yeah, he actually got bored the other day and looked into the data and was like, oh, if I would have known all this, I would have done it sooner. So that's why I have a cold. Plus, I've been playing basketball still and riding the bike when I have a chance.
So I've been trying to stay active on it because I didn't want to be laid up on it. Well, how many days you said? You're not sure how many days, but your body feels so much better. My body is remarkably awesome.
So you said you had some aches and pains from basketball because he refused to stop. My Achilles was pretty bad. My my knee was pretty bad and my hip was pretty bad.
And they're all three really good. Now my hand was pretty bad. I had to trigger finger for working for her dad.
Like when I would run the Weedwhacker, I would get I got a trigger finger. I literally would like snap and then snap out like if we caught what you say. You said you were shooting for 28 until you got.
So I got sick because I started ingesting some dayquil. So I'm going to probably go another day or two extra because to clean that shit out of my system. But he's starting to hit the point where I was at where like once you do the supplements that long, you're so viscerally repulsed or psychologically repulsed by it, like drinking the oil.
Well, I can tell you, like from like her mom did it. She did it and attacked both of them differently. And then I did it and attacked me differently.
Like, yeah, well, at least he's not throwing up. I was like throwing up a lot when I did it. She's puked her mom.
Her mom had asked me and I have like a psychological reaction to being swaddled. It's really funny watching. So everybody has like a different thing that they struggle with.
And his is so funny. He's like, I thought the sauna was the best part of it. And he's like, I'm triggered for four hours every day.
So I got to give you props because if that's literally like what your problem is, that's it's emotionally toxic, way worse than like 30 seconds of like chugging an oil. It's mentally draining because you actually every day have to like, oh, my God, I have to do this every day. But the health benefits have far outweighed the mental anguish.
And one of the cool things is the study that he found. They did a control group World War Two, Persian War, Persian Gulf War. Anyway, so they had a control group where one of one of the groups of people did this and then two groups did not.
And they tested a bunch of biomarkers and a bunch of other stuff. And 10 years later, they actually had still like blatant differences. They had elevated numbers 10 years later after only doing the cleanse one time.
One time. So like it's a cleanse that if you what's it called? I think it's called the niacin purification protocol. Yeah, purification protocol.
If you want to do a cleanse that will test you mentally and physically, but will actually generate emotionally for some people because it releases trauma, generate ridiculously good physical results. But it is it's not easy. And like 1%.
I would say like I think less than 5% of people can do it. And the test even said, like out of the 500 people, only 12, 22. It's it's it's completed.
Yeah, well, you have to have willpower. Yeah, if you don't if you don't have willpower, it's you're not going to be successful. But and they say don't start it if you don't start if you won't go through the whole thing, you're not supposed to stop it.
So that next week, for those of you who even care, most people probably think we're crazy because L. Ron, whatever. Because I know lucky me, I have no pop culture illiterate. And so I read the book and I was like, hey, this book sounds really cool.
And then Tim was like, isn't that the Scientology guy? And I was like, oh. Could you just talk about earnings report and trends? I could. We'll do it.
We can do that. We'll do earnings. We haven't done like an earnings report season for a while.
And I think because of the macroeconomic climate, it might be a good time because of businesses are reporting because the numbers have finally started rolling in like Trump's whatever the hell he's been doing. So I would imagine the earnings reports with the consistent that we've seen is a lot of companies don't know what they're going. Their earnings are going to be like, so they're not actually doing projections.
So, yeah, dig into that because that sounds like something actually pretty interesting. OK. OK.
So we just decided I'm going to go pass out now. See you guys next week. Peace.