117 - Earnings Season Shake-Up: Dividend Cuts And Hikes

Some stocks in our portfolio just made major moves after earnings—dividend cuts, dividend hikes, and some eyebrow-raising guidance changes. In this episode, we break down which positions we’re holding, which we’re buying on dips, and where we’re turning off DRIP to lock in cash.

We cover high-yield BDCs, dividend growth machines, and deep-value plays—all through the lens of this quarter’s earnings results. Plus, we talk about the macro forces shaping these moves—energy prices, tariffs, market psychology—and how we’re positioning ahead of next week’s big-picture portfolio strategy episode.

This isn’t just a stock update—it’s the blueprint we’re using to compound income and build financial sovereignty.

Dividend Cutters:

• ABR
• BSM
• ARLP

Dividend Growers:

• IIPR
• MO
• PEP
• OZK
• VZ
• BTI
• BMY
• BKH
• ES
• EPD
• ADM
• UPS
• LYB

Other Notables:

• HTGC 
• SPMC
• TRIN
• AB

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**DISCLAIMER**
Ticker metrics change as markets and companies change, so always do your own research. The content in this podcast is based on personal experience and is for educational purposes, not financial advice. See full disclaimer here.

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Transcript

Welcome to roaming returns a podcast about generating a passive income with dividend stocks so you can secure your finances and liberate your life.

Earnings season is in full swing—and some of our portfolio stocks just made big moves. A few cut dividends, a bunch raised them, and others dropped news that could shift how we play them going forward. In this episode, we’re breaking down what we look at to determine what we hold, what to buy on dips, and what to watch like a hawk—so we’re ready to pivot next week when we zoom out and see what earnings season is telling us about the whole market. 

All right. What's up, all? I want to hear you vent. I want to hear you vent.
This fucking took forever to put together. He's been bitching for days. So to get you guys the most accurate information, I had to wait until each of the ones that I brought up did their earnings report, plus their earnings call, because, you know, the earnings call sometimes has nougats of information in them.
But I got, I think there's 19, there's 19 or 20 stocks. And the two portfolios that earnings were interesting or whatever. And I broke it up into the dividend cutters, the ones that cut their dividends this year or after this earnings.
There's only three of those. And then there's a bunch of dividend raisers, growers that we'll address. And there's a handful of ones at the end that I talk about a lot for the most part.
So we'll get started. The first one, ABR. They actually did cut their dividend from 43 cents down to 30 cents, which is not ideal.
But you saw that coming, right? We've been talking about that for a while. Their non-GAAP or non their non-GAAP EPS came in at 25 cents, which is well below the 30 cents. So they better get their shit together.
They're going to have to cut to the dividend again. So how likely do you think they're going to be to get their shit together? I think once interest rates get cut, if they do this year, it'll be fine because they'll just refinance their debt and have lower payments, which will actually help their profits and their margins and everything. I mean, their profit margin is still pretty good.
It's just that they're using cash on hand or they're borrowing money to pay their dividend, which you never want to happen with the stock. You kind of want them to use the cash that they earn as opposed to borrowing because that's kind of stupid. Right.
That's dumb logic. So like I said, their non-GAAP came in at 25. Their dividend is going to be 30, so they're already 5 cents in the hole.
Their net income dropped from $47.4 million in quarter two of 2024 to $24 million in this quarter, quarter two of 2025, which is damn near a 50% drop in their net income. Their quarter two EPS came in at 12 cents. Then EPS is different than the non-GAAP.
The non-GAAP is when they have a bunch of things added into it. EPS is like after they subtract out all their fees and everything they owe and everything. You're mumbling.
So the fact that it's 12 cents as opposed to 25, again, is not ideal. You said it went down in half of what they're bringing in? Their net income dropped in half. That's kind of scary, isn't it? Yeah, but I'm not too concerned because quarter two is generally one of their weaker quarters.
What I am concerned about is they issued $500 million in loan notes. So what that is, rather than put new shares out there, they got bonds. So they're only going to make $200 million from the $500 million that they issued.
So that's not very good at all. It was a bad earnings report, but it wasn't the worst. I would watch this one as they need an interest rate cut desperately.
If the interest rates are cut in September, like most people think they are, even though that's a whole other tangent that it would be stupid to do. Okay, so if you're not in this, don't buy. Keep an eye.
If it drops below $11, you can pick up a couple shares. Okay, so what if you're already in it? If it drops anytime the share price is above $11, turn the drip off just in case. So you're collecting cash as opposed to reinvesting.
Okay, that's what I want to know. So ABR, that was bad. It's just bad.
Just everything bad. Everything bad. The second one that cut their... Was it as bad as you thought? Because you said we were getting into ABR, we were... It wasn't as bad as I thought, but I didn't think... The bond thing? Just issuing new shares or new money in the form of a loan is troublesome.
Because rather than... So what they did is rather than dilute the share count, they basically diluted their profit because they're going to be taking profits and money they make from their mortgage notes and their tenants, and they're going to be using that to pay off $500 million in loans. So it's going to actually... It's going to hurt the bottom line. Just not directly if they just issued new shares.
I don't know why they just didn't issue new shares, but... So that's the preferable? In that case. All right. I was just curious.
Okay. BSM is the second one that cut their dividend. They cut their dividend from 0.375 to $0.30, so not as bad as ABR, but it's still pretty bad.
So a seven cent cut. Yeah, seven and a half cent cut. What they did is in their forward projections or forward guidance, they actually lowered their productive... I can't talk.
Production. Production output for 2025, but it wasn't by too much. Their net income rose to 120 in quarter two or 53 cents a share up from quarter one, which had net income of 15.9. If you go to quarter two of 2024, it had net income of 68.3. So their net income almost doubled.
So that's preferable. Yeah. It's way better than the last one for sure.
Halving? Double. I would say double. How do you say that word? Which one? Distributable? Distributable cash flow for quarter two.
Distributable. That one actually is hard to say compared to your actualization from last week. And the other five words you decided to throw in, you're like, I can't pronounce any of these.
Distributable cash. Why can't I say certain words? Like in my brain, it doesn't make sense. That word doesn't make sense.
It's not a real word. It probably isn't a real word. Anyway, quarter two, it was 74.8. An increase from 73.7 in quarter one.
So all in all, they actually had a really good earnings report. The only problem was the dividend cut. And they said why they did it? It was just to free up cash.
They're probably going to buy some other company that deals with minerals. Because this is BSM is a mineral and oil company. OK.
It's one that we have never really talked about too much. We have like a little bit in it. Most people don't really have a lot in it.
Because it is like it is in the field of oil exploration and mineral exploration. Are they doing any offshore? No. Like underwater stuff? Not yet.
I feel like that's going to pop the hell off. So BSM had a decent, I think it was actually a pretty good earnings report. But the stock still went down.
So probably because they cut the dividend. And the third dividend cutter was ARLP. But that one comes with a caveat.
Because ARLP sometimes does this shit where they just pay wonky dividends. So this is one of those variables, right? They're like all over the place? Or is this the one that just pays random extras? It pays random extras. It's the coal one.
Oh, that's right. Revenue for quarter two was $547.5 million, which was 8% lower than quarter two of 2024. And if you actually look at the earnings report, say like you're interested in this.
I don't know why you would be. But if you're interested in this and you go in like when quarter three earnings come out, what they do in the earnings report is they compare the current quarter with the previous year's quarter. So they do quarter two 2025.
And they compare it to quarter two 2024. That's smart, though. Because stuff is cyclical.
Or like seasonal, I guess is the right word. Anyway, it was 8% lower than quarter two of 2024, which is $593.4. They attributed that to coal sale prices were down. Um, coal sales themselves were up.
So prices were down 11.3% from 2024 to 2025. However, coal sales themselves increased almost 7% from 24 to 25. So that's one of those things where they're actually shipping more product, but they're getting less revenue because the prices are down.
Well, is that Trump related? Because he's like decreasing gas prices. But this is coal not gas. Coal is probably.
I would imagine because there's probably a Trump factor because he's going to dig for coal because he wants to use it. I find it interesting that two of these that you just said for dividend cutters are actually fuel. We have the oil and we have coal.
Kind of interesting. Net income for quarter two was $59.4 million or $0.46 a share. Quarter two, 2024 had net income of $100 million or $0.77 a share.
So like that part there when they take out like all their fees and things they owe was ridiculously different. That's like, uh, what is that? 40% down around there. But with any commodity revenue is dependent on price and price for coal were down the past quarter, but sales of coal are up.
So the dividend was cut from $0.70 to $0.60. Now what they normally do is they'll pay a $0.70 dividend or now it's going to be, so it'll be a $0.60 dividend in quarter one, $0.60 quarter two, $0.60 for their baseline. But then they'll, they'll throw in a special dividend whenever they have money. So like this one, I'm not really worried about it at all.
I actually would pick this one up if it dropped to a certain price. If you don't have this one in your portfolio, it should, because we actually did send an email when all hell broke loose and people were selling it left and right. We said, just pick it up.
And it's like, it's been, it's probably 50 or 60% up since the time we sent that email out. It's been up a lot. Um, so that's the three, three and all the, so we had three in the two portfolios that cut their dividend.
That's not good numbers. That's really good. We have like 60 socks and with the crazy macroeconomics and whatnot.
So that's actually, Oh, cause the people are getting less money cause it's like stuff slowing down. Cause everything we talk about in our weekly emails, if you're on the email list, you'd know this, but basically like consumer spending's down a lot, even though they they're skewing the numbers to make it look like it all, dude, all hell is going to break loose. Is that a complete sidebar? Because the overlord fired the person that's in charge of the statistics and the bureau of labor statistics.
There's no telling what the numbers, what the numbers are going to be, what the numbers are going to be reported as and what the actual numbers are. Because, um, you have the jobs report that's ran through the BLS and you have the CPI and the CPE are all like, so the inflation numbers and the job numbers, which is, you know, these are like the huge things for the economy. They're all run through a department where he's putting in a handpicked person.
That's going to say, yeah, everything's great. So there's no fucking telling what the actual numbers are going to be anymore. Okay.
So the fact that that's happening, businesses are having issues with money coming in because customers are like panicking, freaking out. So less money going into the market. So it makes sense that the businesses are going to be stressed.
So cut dividends is expected, right? So three of 60 is not a bad number. Okay. I understand that perspective now.
Now the dividend growers, there's a caveat with the first one, which is IIPR, which I told everybody to get in for like months now. I didn't expect any growers. Interesting.
IIPR is going to shoot up. It's going to pop off because they're trying to figure out a way to decriminalize marijuana. As they should.
Currently, like that's something that's been talked about a lot right now. As they should. From the news.
Because like after the earnings, IIPR went down to like $46 a share. It's currently like 53. Like it's- 46? Wasn't it like at a hundred and- It was 118 or something like that last year.
Jesus. So it shot up a lot from the decriminalization of pot. That's another word you're having trouble pronouncing.
I do believe we'll see a dividend increase in quarter three or quarter four because IIPR raised their dividend. I don't forget how many years, 16 or something like that. So I think they'll probably raise it by a couple cents.
The last increase was quarter two of 2024 and it was eight cents or a 4.4% increase. The current dividends $1.90. I probably think it may be $1.91 or $1.92 until they get some clarification with the legislation. Interesting.
Their quarter two revenue was $62.9 million, a 21% decrease from quarter two of 2024, which was $79.8 million. AFFO, because it's a REIT, AFFO adjusted funds for quarter two was $1.71. Quarter two 2024 had AFFO of $2.29, which then this quarter was a 25% decrease from last year in quarter two. But they have enough cash on hand for one or two quarters of dividend payments plus all their bills.
So a cut should not happen until 2026 if they need to. This one's one to keep your eyes on because a 19 cent difference between AFFO and a dividend payment. Like you saw, like I said there, the quarter two AFFO was $1.71 and they currently have a $1.90 dividend.
So that's another one that doesn't have enough money to cover their dividend. So this one possibly could have a dividend cut coming in 2026. Even though they just raised it? Yeah.
Take advantage of it while it's there at a low price, right? Compound and get those shares. In all actuality, this one, like even like the worst case scenario, it should be like in the 70s or 80s for price and it's at the 53. So you have price appreciation plus, plus probably a dividend increase in 2025 before you have a dividend reduction in 2026 if it's necessary.
So you should probably get into it. Next one that is MO, Alteria, the tobacco one, they should have a dividend increase coming out any day now. Their last increase was quarter three 2024 and it was 4 cents or 4.1%. Their EPS in quarter two was $1.44. You compare that to quarter two of 2024, they had the EPS of $1.33. So they had 8.3% increase.
Quarter two revenue was $6.1 billion, which is a decrease of 1.8% from quarter two 2024. Like just let that sink in. That's $6.1 billion in tobacco.
That's fucking insane. I mean, seriously, I see people vaping all over the place and like Tim's little num-num pouches, which they're everywhere in this house. I am going to do a video.
Like when he was gone, I have a whole bag of these things that I freaking, they're everywhere. Revenue for quarter two was $6.1 billion, whereas quarter two 2024 was $6.21 billion. So it's down slightly.
I feel like that should have been the background picture, a whole bunch of num-num. But they did increase their guidance for the remainder of 2025 slightly by 1%. Net profit margin remained high at 37% due to sales increasing in the nicotine pouches area.
Nicotine pouch sales increased by 13% in quarter two. So Altaria, like M.O. is a really good stock. If you got into that when we talked about your- Warning, this product contains nicotine and nicotine is addictive.
When we first got into this, we brought it up in our quarterly thing. And if you listen to that and you got into M.O. at that time, you're up like 40% with Dividend Grower. Like this is a really good one.
Next one, Dividend Grower is Pepsi. They increased their dividend by $0.06 or 4.4% in quarter two. That's a nice hike too.
Their new dividend payment is $1.42 per share. Revenue in quarter two increased 1% to $22.72 billion, which again is- God damn, that is a huge number. Insanity.
Insane. You freaking Pepsi drinkers. Quarter two EPS declined 7% from $2.28 in 2025 to quarter two of 2024 of $2.12. Steve had an interesting comment on Pepsi.
Somebody who worked in the restaurant business, the reason that Pepsi is the chosen soda on tap in restaurants and whatnot is because Pepsi doesn't charge extra fees and all sorts of crap, whereas Coke does. So I could see why, you know, huge profit margin. But that might be why that's a better stock than Coke.
Because how often do we talk about Coke? Not very often. Everyone likes Coke though because Warren Buffett holds it. Whoop-de-doo, Basil.
They're both shit. I understand, but this one was super undervalued, right? Yeah. I'm not talking about the health perspective.
This would be in my sin stock category if it were me. Probably 40 to 50% undervalued. Revenue is like, they did their forward guidance and they're actually projecting their revenues will fall only 1.5% instead of the 3% that was estimated in quarter one.
So they're actually starting to see the numbers come in and the damage isn't terrible. Tariffs and foreign exchange are the reasons for this revenue drop. Surprise.
Their net profit is still at 8%. So like this one still, like again, it's severely undervalued and it's a dividend grower. Interesting sidebar question.
Didn't Coke just make an announcement about high fructose corn syrup versus the sugar thing we were talking about? Cane sugar? Pepsi doing the same thing? No, I don't think. Not yet. I haven't heard.
I haven't read anything. Because Trump did, what did he say? He told Coke to put regularly like... Is that because he drinks Coke? Is he the one running around drinking Coke? I remember hearing that. Diet.
Yeah. So Coke's going to put... That China cancer. They're going to do that Mexican Coke stuff where they put cane sugar in their Coke as opposed to processed sugar.
So hopefully the price of that will come down in regular. You won't have to keep spending money if you're buying it in the Mexican Coke aisle. The next dividend grower is Ozark.
Like I've talked about this one a few times and people still haven't gotten on board. Get on board, peeps. This is a regional bank that basically deals in Arkansas and like a couple of states.
So that's pretty much the Ozarks. Missouri. Maybe some Tennessee.
I don't remember. But it's in that area. The EPS in quarter two was $1.58. In quarter two, 2024, it was $1.52. So it increased 4%.
Net income was 178.9, which was a record, they said, which is an increase of 3% over quarter two, 2024. Revenue was 428. Profit margins sit at 428 million.
Profit margins still sit at 43%. Dividend was increased from 39 cents to 44, which was 13% increase. Holy shit.
This investment has a double digit per year dividend hike going back as far as the 10 year dividend growth. So like this one's like why people aren't in, more people aren't in. This one, I don't know.
Seriously? Dividend growth, 13% increase? 13%? And that's like a 10 year, that's like their 10 year average is 13% dividend growth. A year? What the fuck? How much do we have in this? I'd be buying it up, or would have been, I guess, socking it in before. So we're not in this? Just my mom? Mamma Dukes? Wasn't she freaking.
So that's a really good one like that. Like so far, that's the best one that you should get into. The next one's Verizon.
However you feel about Verizon. Personally, I think they're crap, but we're in Verizon because you can make money from it. Revenue for quarter two was 34.5 billion.
That was a 5.2% increase over quarter two of 2024. EPS in quarter two was $1.22 per share, which is an increase of 3.4 over quarter two 2024. Forward guidance by Verizon, they are projecting revenue and EPS should increase one to 3% instead of zero to 2%.
Are we still concerned with the whole Starlink, towers, whatnot? Not Verizon signed with Starlink. They signed with them. So T-Mobile's on board.
All three of the big ones are T-Mobile, Verizon. Well, that was a smart move on their part because they saw the obsolescence. Now their current dividend is 67 cents and their last dividend increase was 1.5% from 66 to 67.
And their new dividend should be in November. That's when they'll do their next increase, but they'll increase it. It's been increased.
Are they quarterly? It's 19 years now. They've increased the dividend or 29. I forget.
That's a pretty big difference. So that one, it's still a little bit undervalued. So you could still get it right.
Are they an aristocrat? I don't know. All right. Let's go say aristocrat.
I think it's 25. I don't know that list by heart. Okay.
BTI, another tobacco stock. This is in the retirement account. I don't know for how much longer.
Actually, we just sold the remainder of what we owed. So everything in BTI is now just straight profit. So it's going to just do what it's going to do.
Anyway, they had a decrease in revenue from 12.34 billion pounds to 12.07 billion pounds, which is a 2.2% decrease. EPS was down 4.1% from quarter two, 24 to 25. We got our... Yeah, okay, here we go.
So there's a reason why we got our initial investment out of this one. The projected 1% to 2% revenue growth is still on track to be met as of this earnings report. The dividend for November is set at 75 cents, which is less than both the other dividends collected this year, which were both 80 cents.
I do expect the total dividends for the year to be above $3, which would be an increase of two to 3%. They do some weird shit with this one. It's a dividend grower, but they have their dividends all over the place.
How they determine theirs is they tabulate at the end of the year. They do like an average for the year and then they bump it up at some point. And they've had six of the last seven years, the dividends increased by about 3%.
I was going to ask you how the hell that works. So that's good clarification. I like M.O. better, but... M.O.? Yeah, M.O. is way better.
Is BTI tobacco as well? Yeah, they have like Kools and whatever else, but I think they're Marlboro. Are they Marlboro? They might be Marlboro. I don't know.
Don't know. I thought Marlboro was... I thought Marlboro was M.O. just because... I thought Marlboro was Philip Morris, but I don't... I think they have something. You'd think we'd know these things.
I don't care. I just know that tobacco, because everyone's going to be fucking crazy about prices going up, is going to be... It's going to pop off here in the next year or two. Yeah, like with cigarettes.
Jesus Christ. When we were at that casino up in Connecticut, it was like $18 a freaking pack. We were like, what? Did we tell them about that? And this was years ago.
This was like... Three years ago? A casino in... 2019. Connecticut, right before COVID. The Mohegan Sun.
And I was gambling a little bit, and I went up to talk to them about something, and I saw that the price for a Marlboro Lights was $18 a pack. Back in 2019. So it has to be like $22, $23 a pack now.
That was like October. And people were still buying them, which is fucking insane. Yeah.
I don't even understand. I guess convenience fee when you're like zoned in on gambling. But that was when we went up for our Salem... Like $5.
Halloween trip. Anywhere else, but they were paying $18. Jeez.
Next one is one of my favorite stocks. If I recall, we did a podcast about some of my favorite stocks for the next decade. Which, yeah, it was BMY.
It was one of them. Bristol-Myers Squibb. They had a really shitty earnings report.
Their EPS decreased 29.5% from quarter two, 24 to 25. But that is... But they increased the minimum? I'll tell you why in a minute. The revenue did increase by 0.6% from 24 to 25.
So that's good. They did lower their guidance for the EPS for 2025, but raised this revenue guidance for 2025. So this one's a mixed bag.
But that EPS was horrible. The problem, the reason why the EPS was so bad was that a majority of its drugs, which make money, have reached the point in time where generics can now be produced. But if you don't know... So they're losing their patent? Yeah.
If you don't know about pharma, if you create a drug, you get a patent for 10 years. You're the only person that can sell that drug. But then once the patent runs out, generics can now put their stuff on the market.
So there's a lot of generics that are coming in that are cutting into profits. But they have a new lineup of drugs. I was going to say, there should be new ones coming out.
We're waiting on FDA review. So in the next two or three years, this one's going to pop off. So this one, I think, will trade sideways the rest of the year, which is an awesome time to pick up shares because you're getting your compound thing going on at the same price.
The dividend is currently $0.62 a share. And it was increased in January by 3.3%. It was $0.60 last year. And that was the 17th year that they've increased the dividend.
So they'll increase it again probably in January by about 3%. So it'll be like $0.65. So if it's trading sideways, you're getting a dividend increase. It's perfect.
And then you're just basically waiting for the FDA to approve their new line of drugs. And then BMI will shoot up. So pick it up now, Wyatt.
Contrarian. Before the new drugs come out. Yeah, because once you got the news, the price is already priced in once it hits news.
You lost that movement. Yeah. Next dividend grower is Black Hills.
It's an electric company that basically has electric out in South Dakota, North Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, et cetera. Their EPS in quarter two was increased 15.2% from quarter two, 2024. And their revenue increased 9% from 24 to 25.
Now, so costs have gone up and net profit has shrunk a little bit to 13.6. But it's still projecting in its forward guidance for there to be total growth in the 4% to 6% range in 2025. So dude, this one's anytime it drops below $50, pick it up. The dividend, which it raised its dividends for the 55th straight year.
It currently sits at $0.68. It raised it 4.6% this year. Dang. It has a 4% to 5% historically historic number when it comes to raising its dividends.
So this is a dividend grower of the utmost, 55 straight years. That is a king. Anytime it gets below $50, pick it up.
Because electric, it's an electric company. It's solely electric. And electric, if you're not familiar, is going to be in high demand because of AI centers and all that shit.
Massive, massive, massive. So the profit margin is going to go up. The revenue is going to go up.
The EPS is going to go up. So this one, I have no problem with this one. You pick it up anytime under $50 and just collect it.
It's really good. Next one's another electric company. It's ES.
It's Evansource? Eversource? I forget. I don't know. We always screw the name up on this one.
Its EPS increased by 1.1% from $24 to $25. And its revenue increased by 12.3% from $24 to $25. So nice.
Forward guidance was maintained in the 5% to 7% EPS growth of $24. For $25. And the dividend was just raised for the 25th straight year.
It's currently at $0.75. And it was raised 5.2% this year, which is a little lower than the historical growth rate of 6%. So they kind of did a smaller dividend growth this year. But it was raised in the first quarter.
So this one's another one, I think, for the next decade because this one's so undervalued. This one's probably 40% undervalued, given everything. So you can just get into it pretty much anytime it's below 70, which is all the time because it bounces.
This is a very volatile electric company. Most electric companies kind of do the sideways, either up or sideways down. This one kind of just bounced.
That's like a heart monitor. So anytime it's below 70, pick up some shares and then just weigh that because it should be trading at 120, 110, 115, somewhere around there. So next dividend grower is EPD.
We have this in, I want to say, the retirement account. I think most of these are in the retirement account because they're dividend growers. We kind of use our account for cash and whatnot.
APD is probably, in my opinion, it is, if not the best oil play, it's in the top three. Its EPS was an increase. It increased its EPS 3.1% from 24% to 25% quarter two.
Its revenue was down a lot though. Its revenue was down 15.7%. That makes sense because the price of crude is down a lot from 24 to 25% because gas prices are down 11% from quarter two, 24 to quarter two, 25. And oil prices were down 12% in the same timeframe.
So they did issue forward guidance of 4 billion to 4.5 lane range, which was unchanged from quarter one there. Did they just raise their dividend for the 26th straight year? It's currently 55 cents. It was only raised 1.9 percent this year, which is like half what it normally does historically growth rate so the Once the price of oil rebounds the dividends will probably be a lot more than 2% They'll get it back in that 3.5 to 3.8 range that they normally do But that's probably not gonna happen anytime soon because Trump's keeping that low on purpose to counteract all the other tariff crap, right? yeah, like when we go through the inflation in the emails like the biggest reason why inflation appears to be only growing by like 0.2 percent each month is because the price of energy is so low if He didn't drill drill drill drill and just pretty good just produce ridiculous amounts of oil like the inflation would be four to five percent So in that regard, he's not a complete moron, but that's the only one I can't lie I'm not too upset about low gas prices.
However, Pennsylvania has ridiculously extra taxes on gas Because Tim was saying and driving across the country All right, Pennsylvania is like 40 cents at the 40 to 70 anything at the minimum I think it's 80 actually sometimes cents higher. It's retarded But there's like been some kid in some cases. It was like a dollar Higher than some of the states.
I was driving through is crazy the next one I Don't know how I feel about like suggesting to buy this one Because ADM ADM ADM deals in corn there They're basically they produce corn and they make corn syrup and the coke thing high fructose Yeah, that's a trickle effect. So this one I'm not sure I would recommend getting into unless it actually gets there attacking all that weird gets into a nice price range maybe 43 to 45 dollars we give it if it gets to that low you could pick up some shares. It's currently like 52 EPS for quarter 2 was down 9.7% from quarter 2 last year to this year quarter 2 revenue was down 4.9% from last year to this year and they issued for guidance Which was on the lower end of the four to four four dollars to four seventy five range at four dollars So they actually decreased their guidance All this negativity is due to terrorists and the trade wars Other countries do not want our corn or corn syrup anymore because our overlords being an asshole So they're just like, all right, we'll just piece of deuces.
We'll get our corner somewhere else. So like it's really hurting them Profit margins are expected to be only one to two percent moving forward. That's bad I like I just said I'd like this one.
I've hit dips down to 43 to 45 to 45 dollars I would pick it up you still with all those red flags Yeah Reason the reason I say that is because there's seven experts that cover this one and they've all in the last couple weeks actually Raised their projected price. So they're basically trying to get people to buy it So don't buy it because the experts are saying to buy it wait till it's at a better price Any time like there's consensus like when the experts all agree on something that means they're trying to move the price Yeah, they're trying to manipulate something sheeple like so do it. Don't buy it.
Don't do it It's 43 to 45 that's the range you're looking for in this one on the dividend front ADM raised their dividend for the 52nd straight Year current dividends at 51 cents. Wait a second So that makes me think back on ADM that They're trying to get the price up so that maybe the insiders are gonna dump their shares. I'm saying 43 to 45 I've said it four times.
Okay, it's currently like 52 to 53 moving on UPF Current dividends 51 cents, which was I'm not done with this one yet. Oh, sorry I was looking at that and my brain transposed which they raised it was a 2% raise over 24 this this year's increase was well below the 10-year historical average, which is 7.5 percent ish around their range and So the profits are getting tight So they're only raising it by like, you know a couple cents as opposed to like 10 12 They're trying to stay on their king status. So yeah pennies like some of those big ones only do pennies per year So again, 43 to 45.
Yeah, that's the price range you're looking for for this one Next one is UPS super undervalued. I'll just I'll just start with that They had a horrible earnings Their EPS was down 6% from 24 to 25 quarter to their revenue was down to 2.8 percent I mean it was still at twenty one point two billion, which is insanity Tariff and economic conditions led to a seven point three percent decrease in average daily volume Which is not good and they've actually pulled their guidance for the remainder of 2025 due to policy and tariff uncertainty Which is never a good thing for in vector investors so the investors all just got out stock is down thirty two percent for the year to date and It was down ten percent the day after earnings. So like this one's prime to pick up The dividend which was raised for the 16th straight year or 26 like this is one of the weird ones were like some people say It's 16.
Some people say it's 26. Like I didn't why I didn't have time to go back and look at why 20 years data It's at a dollar 64. The dividend was raised 0.6% this year, which is well below the 10% historical dividend growth rate for this one the last 10 years They have a super high payout ratio of 97% She so they stated they wanted to bring the payout ratio back to the 50 Percent range that means the dividend raises move forward below like this year's so you're not going to be getting that 10% Dividend growth you're gonna be getting more like the 0.6 that to me says that their customers whatever is going down Because probably the tariffs and people are buying less like people are consuming less which means they're not shipping as much which yes They're they're gonna drop it back down.
This one's the exact inverse of the ADM we're like all the experts said hey You should probably buy this one cuz it's so great all the experts say they've slashed their target prices for that's this one the last Couple weeks so that to me says you should buy it because the all the experts are getting out of it That means it's gonna everyone's selling so there's gonna reach a point It recently hit like 86. So like if it drops and I think anything below 90 is good because this one should be like one Hundred and twenty five to a hundred and forty dollars and you're getting like a six percent yield so Yeah, that's really good for UPS. I think this is an aristocrat 16 16 or 26.
Well 26 would put it as an aristocrat. So I don't know So yeah, this is a popular one Anyway, you look at it, but I like the valuation this one a lot So this is one that you're I mean it sucks because it's 80 some dollars a share Only getting like 10 or 12 or 15 shares at times you're only getting like a $20 dividend But like if it's a retirement account Perfect, because you can just let it do its thing for like the next 20 years The last one is LYB the last one of the dividend growers and growers LYB if you're not familiar with LYB, they they dabble in chemicals and plastic and shit like that. That sounds horrible Do tell anyway Their EPS was down seventy one point eight percent from quarter two of twenty four to quarter two of twenty five That's never good Revenue is down eleven point eight percent from twenty four to twenty five That again, not good So that's the ridiculous declines were due to two main factors the energy consumption Because of data centers is making all chemical companies margins way thinner Because they're like it's way thinner.
They like when they went into like a PowerPoint presentation about this shit I will just to sum it up when a day the data centers by getting all the all the power People don't have money like to spend on fucking plastics and shit. So they're because they're putting in their electricity So the data centers are really hurting this one. Oh, so this becomes like a discretionary Same second the tariffs caused raw materials using the chemical by the chemical companies to cost a shit-ton more Which leads to much higher prices which leads to much less demand for their chemical products because their prices are so ridiculous Oh, so they're getting hit on my we gotta think they're like they're like the little They're plastic the little Peanut shit and stuff like that.
They do they make that hmm, and if shipping's down and they make like plastic Cups and shit like that people people aren't buying that shit because everything costs so much. They're like, whatever fuck it We're gonna wash our dishes we'll use what we have and they do have like a other chemical like because like what they do is they create a chemical that goes into all the plastics that Is formed into everything that people buy? It's that but I don't understand like the details like it doesn't make sense to me But like they like literally are like this spray that goes into everything. Oh, they build plastic with My brain just went to like the hard cases for like tools for mechanics for some reason, I don't know if that's accurate but They're good Ford and guidance didn't have exact growth data But they did state that they're still in line for their capital growth and chemical production target targets that were set in 24 for 2030 So I guess that's good.
They're still in line for their goals. They set last year for four years from now Cool the plan is to have the free cash flow of over 1 billion by 2030 and the and the sales of plants in quarter 3 Coming up which will help this are still on target to be sold like they're in the process of selling a couple plants to raise Money to get to that 1 billion because they have free cash flow of 1 billion dollars. That's insanity Yeah, that's crazy that they're even having that as a goal.
So that seems like a tightly mean machine that dividend They've raised it for the 15th consecutive year sits at $1 37 The dividend was raised 2.2 percent this year Which was well below the 5 to 6 percent the historical dividend growth rate You're gonna make sense with their numbers other other stuff coming down like wide like UPS before it Lyb has had its target price downgraded by all the experts meaning pick it up. Pick it up I'm sure Ian think in the 45 to 47 dollar range. I'd pick this up.
I think it's currently like 49 So just hit a little bit further to go down smidgy smidgy and so that's the different growers. I got a couple here ones like the evergreen stock of Hercules capital because like Everybody should have this like I know like there's a huge Contingent of people that think Main Street capital is the one that you should have in your portfolio I don't agree with that because Main Street only gives you like a 5% yield Whereas Hercules gives you like a 9 to 10 percent yield and they're basically both ran fucking us amazingly So I'd rather have double the yield. Hmm makes sense.
Are they about the same price? Mains more expensive names like 60 some dollars and Hercules is 20. Yeah So with a reinvestment you're gonna get more Compounding with HTG because like the profit margin for Maine is 97% the profit margins for Hercules capital is like 94% So like their profit margins when it comes to paying the dividends that there's they're pretty comparable Hercules their their net invest and net investment income their NII was down 2% from 24 to 25 But that's I mean come on like the interest is high So like as a BDC or it's gonna be affect your net and your net income. Yeah Holes in your bucket total a quarter to total investment income was an increase 10% to a hundred 37.5 million from quarter to last year So like so what their net income investment their NII was down just a little bit But the total amount of money that they invested and they got back from their investments was up 10% So net and total Investment income isn't a fancy way of BDC is to say revenue if you didn't know so the revenue is up 10% Fancy there there one area to watch is expensive their expenses, which they did increase 14.7% from quarter to last year to this year.
That's a good chunk Their assets under managed did increase 16.5% though assets under managed like if you don't know like with BDC's and reach like they just Everything that they have their fingers in is falls under their assets under management. So like a reach it's all the properties down So that's a good number if it goes up that much because it has they're more managing more money He sees it's how many loans they're just dispersing to different companies. Yep, so that it went up 16.5% which is awesome It's at 5.3 billion, which is crazy The dividend has been consistent at 47 cents for three quarters.
It did drop from 48 to 47 in 2024, which is a 2.1 percent decline I don't care because they all they almost always drop a 7 7 cents supplemental dividend whenever they pay their 47 cents So you're getting an extra 7 cents pretty much every quarter. Is that even counted into their your yield? No, so this one makes even more than Maine because of that special throw-off makes 10% and so it's like I'm saying If you're not even counting 13 or 14 percent. Yeah, that's crazy The dividend has increased 47% since the Kovac days was and this to me again is a core component of any income for foil I would like to get it under $18 a share because I'm greedy.
So At least you would know it But like you can pick it up anytime anytime it gets above say $22 though You want to turn the drip off because 22 seems to be the resistant point where it hits that and comes back down So maybe even 21 like if it gets above $21 turn the drip off but like this one's a core component I Like it a lot. The next one's a newbie. I Literally just found this right found it.
I found it. Um, I Want to say like six months ago, but it had no no data. It only had like one quarter of data And I and with the one quarter data as I get fuck it.
Let's see what happens So I I so I I sold all of our shares of SCM which was another BDC and was literally just trading sideways So we were just accumulating a bunch of shares at the same in the same like band of like maybe a dollar 25 difference between highs and lows But I sold all SCM and I put it in SPC SP MC because it pays a shit-ton more this page It's yield is like 16% It's almost 17 percent. That's like six point seven percent So because it's so new it's very difficult to like get any information So I'll just give you the broad basics of their their quarter one and I I was 66 cents Their quarter two and I I was 53 cents, so it dropped like nineteen point seven percent But again, that's not a fair comparison because quarter one is always high and the quarter two is low and quarter three is super high And quarter four is really low for for most BC Their net income was negative twenty point seven in Quarter one, but their net income in quarter two was actually positive nine point seven million So like they're they're they're they're making money. So that's cool.
And they're a quarter one that nav was 1878 if you don't know like how they determine nav is like basically they take all the assets and all the liabilities and they subtract it and that gives them a number and they divide that number by The total number of shares that they have out in the stock market and that's how they come with the nav price So the nav in quarter one was 1878 the quarter two nav was 1850 so it only went down like a dollar of 1.5% It was mixed earnings, but because it's new it like there's nothing to compare it to so I'm literally just yellowing this one So if you're not in the yellow, I like the fact that the revenue went up Yeah, just watch to see what happens with us But the problem is the NII a 53 cents is only going to cover two months of their 25 cent per month dividend But they do have awesome for guidance numbers that NII is expected to increase to 86% I'm sorry, 86 cents for quarter of July to September and NII is expected to be 62 cents for the October to December quarter So between the two of them they have enough money to cover their their dividends the rest of the year So that's good. And that income is also expected to increase the next two quarters as well They did just say their dividend is set to remain at 25 cents for the rest of the year Now this is a medium to me a medium risk BDC, but a high reward BDC Current because the current yield of 16% is not sustainable long term unless the NII and then the income increase But even with the dividend cut say to I don't know 10 or 15 cents would which would fall more in line with their current And I are still getting a yield of 6 to 10 percent for like a new one That's literally just finding its way and I like to be in things that they're just finding their way because when they find their Way the price increases a lot Well, not only that usually they're like gung-ho in the beginning too, right We need to see that with the yield max ETS and round house all the time The newer ones like they kick off more as incentive to like play a track Yeah, so if they do cut they do cut their dividend if that if they in fact have to do that it won't take place till at least 2026 so you can collect the 25 cent dividend for the next five months and Then get your drip shares up before the dividend cut and then you literally can just not have to worry about this I would think you're gonna drip the shares as opposed to just recouping the investment for this one Yeah, once the once they cut the dividend then I'll turn the drip off and just recoup my initial investment But to me the reason why it's a medium risk is not a high risk is because they have 42 billion dollars in assets under Management, but this fucking is saying they have so much money out there a billion with a B And they're and they have a pretty if you go into their website and look at what they have It's a pretty diverse like they have shit everywhere. It's a really diverse a portfolio and it's minimal risk portfolio So I'm not entirely worried about this one like diversity with loans is a good thing only like the only thing I foresee is I do think that they're gonna have to they will have to cut their dividend at some point if the if the NII Doesn't increase doesn't get better But then again, there's only one quarter of data So like we can like so like if the NII is 53 If it was 60 some sense and it was 53 and it's like 80 some and it's like a dollar some if you average Altogether it will pay like it'll pay for the 25 cent a month dividend.
So like you're like It's just a wait-and-see. Yeah, Tim's favorite thing. Yeah, y'all know now you could didn't do what Karm said You could like if you just get it Just don't just take the dividends cash pay it off as quickly as possible and then drip it whenever the next year's dividends come around If they do cut it Do you however you want to do it? I'm taking the aggressive route cuz he's got Oracle whatever the heck he's got going on The next one is another one of my favorite BDC's which is Trinity capital dude this one I all it's done has made us money.
Yeah, all it's done has made her mom money I don't know why people don't talk about this more I'm not shooting you I've only ever seen a one of my publications discuss this one seriously Yeah and the dividend didn't like if you watch that episode about free like resources and stuff like there's a lot of Publications and stuff Tim and subscribes to a lot this one all it does is make money like here we go again quarter to net Income was 53 cents, which increased 4% over a quarter to of last year It's crazy a quarter to investment income total investment income or revenue was at 27% over a quarter to of last year That's crazy to Jesus The only thing I have to say negative about this Trinity stock is that it has 70% of its debt maturing in 2029 So I'm hoping before 2029 the interest rates are Cut or there's like certain like there's something stabilized some form of clarity with the interest rates But I'm so they can do it They stagflation nonsense and inflation out the wazoo Because they had like 40s only 46 percent of their debt has floating rates So like that means 54 percent of their debt is set at a certain interest rate So that the interest rates come down they can refinance it and actually have more profit. Yeah The dividend has been at 51 cents for six quarters But it did grow by 82 percent coming out of coven has a growth rate of around 17 And this one's another one like probably two or three times a year. They drop an additional Six seven eight cents on their 51 cent dividend So like I love the ones that give you like what but what the reason they do that is they say here's your set dividend For the quarters and any money they have left over into the quarter.
They give it to you in the form of a supplemental dividend So that's why it's like six or seven cents I'll just tack it on and then if they don't have any money left a quarter It's just 51 cents, but generally it's the fact that it's they've had in the last since we've held this one There's only been one quarter where we didn't get a supplemental dividend. So that is 22 23 24 so that is like 12 or 13 quarters We've held this and we've only did not we've only gotten not got a supplemental dividend one time Damn, so that means they're making money and why aren't they talking about this? I Tarded and like if you go into Yahoo Finance and you look at like if you go into the analysis page Like I showed you guy you only see like four or five of the experts even cover this But I'd like any of it like most of the people that deal with dividend stocks living off dividends Utilities like although I have publications that I pay I pay for like five publications and I have free free Subscriptions to probably about 12 more. So that's 17 and I've only ever seen trend mentioned once Hmm interesting, so I think what's happening is there's a lot of people out there making money and there's a lot of institutional investors So they're keeping it quiet probably but we talk about it this one anytime.
It's below like 17 pick it up That's the other thing. It's crazy low price Because like it what if this is another one like it trades in the man Like I just said with Hercules capital if it hits 22 it hits the resistance does goes down Trainees like the same way like once it hits like 21 it goes down But once it hits like 17, it goes up. So like if you get it like below 17, you're doing you're doing wonders and The last one I will discuss is a variable pair.
That's a baby It's one that I just picked up like a year ago. They did they dabble in like loans and shit like that It's another finance company. Yeah, they're Their most recent dividend was 76 cents to share which is pretty good for it was only like I don't know $50 or whatever The quarter to revenue which was 1.9 1.0 9 billion which is an increase from the 1.0 3 billion of quarter to 24 Assets under management was a record 829 billion is six percent.
I got a 6% increase from quarter to 2024 829 billion that's EPS for quarter 2 was a 7% increase from quarter to last year So this one like all the data is saying hey, this is a really good stuff Yeah like this one I would hold off on but I would put it on your watch list because it Has a lot of potential like we've made a pretty good amount of money in this one It's in your mom's retirement. I imagine if they have obviously freaking crap under Jesus Jesus So that's just a handful of like I did that all all of all of our stocks that was like the dividend growers was Mentioned there's a couple more like we have a lot of variable dividends. So like those are very difficult to like Address because they're bouncing all over the place we only had three that cut their dividends and like Realistically like a VR I'm fine with 30 30 cent dividend because it's still a 10% yield and a ROP I'm fine with the 60 cent dividend because they're just a really well-run company The only question was the second one was the second one BSM, I mean that was just a flyer.
I was like, hey minerals and oil. Yeah So this the whole point of this was it literally just give you guys a update snapshot of stuff We got going on in the portfolio because Tim goes through this quarterly earnings reading of things Did you notice any like? Glaring red flags with anything. I mean, I think we kind of covered it in the macroeconomic episode.
Well, that's next week next week I'm actually gonna pull up a report of the S&P 500 earnings season Okay, and we're gonna go through like we've done a couple times previously We're gonna go through like the sectors that did best sectors that did worse one thing what the hell that actually means what I'm seeing is the energy sector is still doing shit and Technology is still rocking but that's that's for next week But that's because if you don't know like 40% of the S&P is like seven tech companies One freaking NVIDIA it makes up 8% of the actual like Value, that's what I'm saying. Like it's crazy Like if you actually dig into the S&P 500 dude, like damn near half of it is like 15 companies. It's insane how that's like a index that covers like every that people get into because like you're only you get exposure to 500 companies and only like 12 to 15 are really raking in money.
So that means you have like 480 that are just doing shit. So you're basically you're okay And what that really says is holy hell What would happen if the other fucking 480 companies got their shit together because you're getting like 10% on average like over time 10% per year in an index on that's also why like when the markets tank It's one of those 15 like if it's literally that percent of the thing, it's crazy But like we're gonna go over the S&P We're like the reason we do that is not because I think you should invest in S&P But it's to see what sectors are doing what yeah It's to help you get information for the macros and then to figure out what sectors to put your Generally speaking when it comes to earnings they have like the current data, which is like, okay This is what happened this quarter and then they have Here's our guidance for the rest the next quarter and the rest of the year So like it gives you an idea like where to park your money for the remainder of the year It's more data more data to make decisions I didn't even start that so I'm gonna be grouchy again next week because that one's gonna take a couple hours, too Oh, yeah, he's been doing this all week and he's like Jesus Christ There's so much stuff to go through. Well, it's very difficult, but I want like I want you to have quality Information so you can create quality watch lists where you then can get quality high high yield or Whatever you're doing is causing you problems and do whatever you want So like it it does take a lot of work, but I have no sympathy for you.
I've been working on the condo Nobody cares. We all care cuz we're gonna give us like an extra 200,000 to put into the portfolio But we're gonna do a live session so you guys can watch what we do. Slap hands.
Did you like our dragon hummingbird? See, it's a dragon. It was gonna be dragon and a hummingbird But hey, I merged it so and this is a hummingbird with dragon wings and like dragon scales Tim's still missing his hummingbird Oh Jesus God, are you gonna name it? You're gonna name it Harvey yikes Mm-hmm Name the hummingbird. What have you been watching suits? Jesus Christ.
Well, is it a girl or boy? Let's look I can't I imagine if you can't see a dong. It's probably a female move your leg Is that a leg or is that Is that a hummingbird dong? I just had claws. Oh, we're just gonna go with Harvey Anywho So this week was a lot of tickers that you can then dive it digest and put on your watch list So it gives you an idea what to invest in blah blah blah next week is a bunch of boring shit with no tickers But I think next week's super important It gives you an idea where to dump park your money for the rest of you.
So it's super important So we'll try to spice it up a little bit. Hopefully we'll give Tim like next week's will be a tamale spicy Jesus Christ, all right jalapeno on a stick. No, did I know Jeff done done done him done calm probably was there A stick Jesus that's spicy Maybe that's what we'll do done him If you're following the same stocks that we have in our portfolio This should have helped you not have to go through the quarterly reports.
So dude, they suck. Yeah, just an FYI So it's nice when somebody does this for you. Yeah, it's all I do other thing You should give us money cuz that's like some dull some dull shit All right, we will see you guys next week